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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/22/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Welcome to Saturday, RotoBallers! I'm ready to get at this board and bring you some fun angles. Today's going to get a bit wild with a board that's not so straightforward, but that just means we get to have some fun.
I'll be focusing on three lefties, including one from my hometown Rockies. I've got two righties locked and loaded as well. One of those is a Kevin. You know I've got to support my namesake, so let's get it.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, August 22, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/22/2026)
Corey Seager OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350, Bet365)
Don't look now, but Seager is absolutely heating up. He's now had at least two hits in five straight games. Only one of those has included a homer, but that's besides the point. The long ball will come, especially when you get a matchup against the Angels' Ryan Johnson.
Corey Seager slugs an opposite-field home run to open the scoring 💥 pic.twitter.com/fA4qkQQiEa
— MLB (@MLB) August 21, 2026
Let's start with Seager. Over the last two weeks, he's posting a 48.6% hard-hit rate to go along with a 16.2% barrel rate. That's only amounted to three homers on 37 balls in play. It feels like he could've had another homer or two, so I smell positive regression.
On the flipside, Johnson has not been having much fun in the second half. He's allowed a 15.9% barrel rate in the second half, amounting to seven homers. That's quite a bit of opportunity for us to try and capitalize on.
One of those games in the second half for Johnson came against the Rangers. Seager went 0-4 in that game, but he's been on fire ever since. In that game, Seager just barely missed a split finger from Johnson that was close to being a homer. So I'm not afraid of another repeat performance from Johnson here.
For pitch mix, expect Johnson to attack Seager with a split finger and cutter combo. The pitch out of those two we want to focus on is the cutter, as Johnson has given up four homers on that pitch to lefties. Seager has smashed cutters off righties for a .415 wOBA to go with a .475 xwOBA.
It won't take much for Seager to crush one if Johnson leaves it up. He just barely missed it in Anaheim, and we'll hope he gets one in Arlington on Saturday. Now let's head on over to Miami.
Heriberto Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+525, Bet365)
I've been so intrigued with the Marlins' lineup and their potential, but generally I've focused on lefties. This time I'm going to focus on a strong righty in Hernandez. The dude has been one of Miami's best bats. He's been somewhat slow in the second half, but he's starting to heat up again and gets a matchup against Washington's Jake Irvin.
Heriberto Hernández has reached 50 RBIs
Season Stats:
18 HR
50 RBI
8 SB
.231 AVG | .308 OBP | .767 OPSPace: 25 HR / 70 RBI / 11 SB#FightinFish pic.twitter.com/XNHTSzAcvX
— PaceBall (@paceball__) August 17, 2026
Irvin has actually been one of the league's most barreled pitchers in the second half, allowing eight barrels for a 13.1% barrel rate. That's ideal for us to target, but why are we backing a righty instead of a lefty like Kyle Stowers or Griffin Conine?
That's because Irvin has actually been fairly strong against lefties on the road. Righties have actually hit him better, whether we're looking at just homers or not. Lefties and righties have both hit four homers off of him on the road, but righties have done it in half the ABs.
So we're focused on Hernandez. He does have some familial data against Irvin, though it's just two ABs. He owns a double off of him, so even in a small sample size we're at least seeing something positive.
Expect Irvin to attack Hernandez with a mix of four-seamers and sinkers. The sinker is the pitch we'll want to keep an eye on here as it's Irvin's most homer-prone pitch to righties. Hernandez has hit sinkers off righties for a .375 wOBA, which is a solid number for us to back.
Let's hope Irvin leaves one up and Hernandez smashes it deep into the seats at loanDepot park.
