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Kevin's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/18/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Miguel Vargas, JJ Bleday, and others!
Welcome to Saturday, RotoBallers! It's always a bit tough getting back into the swing of things after the All-Star break, but I think I've found some fun spots for us to attack. The board is relatively tricky, but that just means we get to have a little fun with our choices. I'm going after some names I don't normally go for, so this should be a fun way to shake things up out of the break.
In this article, I'll be going over my four favorite home run props. We've got a few lefties in the mix, and you know I love that same game parlay energy, so you know I've got one for you. Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout picks.
Below, you'll be able to read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, July 18, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the time of publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get the most value on your home run wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/18/2026)
Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+375, Bet365)
Who doesn't want to back Vargas for a homer at this point? The 26-year-old has been putting on a show this year, blasting 21 homers and leading the upstart White Sox in the AL Central race. You can't go wrong with either him, Munetaka Murakami or Colson Montgomery if you're looking to bet on someone from Chicago to go deep. And while you may see they're facing Shane Bieber on Saturday, it's not as scary of a matchup as you may think. In fact, I think it's actually pretty favorable.
Miguel Vargas cracks one 433 feet and gives the American League a commanding lead 😤 #AllStarGame pic.twitter.com/thxDcttqBu
— MLB (@MLB) July 15, 2026
Bieber has made four starts since returning from right elbow inflammation but hasn't returned to his same form that we're used to. He's allowed seven homers in 17.2 IP with a HR/FB% of 28.0%. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, and contact against him is getting much better. Hitters have tagged him for a 55.6% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate, which would be career highs for him.
Both lefties and righties have been successful against him, but righties are doing a touch better by posting a .510 wOBA with four homers hit against him in 46 PAs. This gives us free choice to look at the trio of Vargas, Montgomery, and Murakami and choose who we want. With Vargas posting a 21.4% barrel rate and 53.6% hard-hit rate over the last 14 days, it makes him an easy choice.
But this pick isn't just about current form. Vargas checks off pretty much every box when factoring in Bieber's pitch mix. Bieber has attacked righties with a mix of four-seamers, cutters, sliders and knuckle curves. All of them have an xwOBA of .357 or higher. Vargas, meanwhile, has an xwOBA of .346 or higher against all four of those pitches. Ten of his 21 homers have come against four-seamers and sliders this year, so we'll look to target these pitches in his chances against Bieber.
For the record, I'm fine with any choice of Chicago's power trio and would understand if you want to try and take advantage of a platoon matchup. But Vargas checks off more boxes, and that provides a bit more value to me, so I'm rolling with the righty.
JJ Bleday OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350, DraftKings)
Bleday came bursting onto the 2026 scene with Cincinnati in May, smashing what felt like everything in sight as a very underrated hitter. June saw him cool off, but he's starting to get hot in July. That feels like perfect timing with the lefty playing a weekend series at Coors Field against Tomoyuki Sugano.
JJ Bleday crushes a no-doubter to tie things back up 💪 pic.twitter.com/QNluEH45PM
— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2026
The Rockies' righty has missed starts recently with back spasms but should be ready to go on Saturday. And while he's been a bit more successful than the pitching models say he should be, I'm siding with the idea that he's been the beneficiary of luck. His 14.0% barrel rate ranks in the first percentile, putting him among the worst in the league. Lefties have hit 12 of the 16 homers he's given up on the season, so give me Bleday in an advantageous platoon matchup.
In the month of July, Bleday's Statcast numbers look a bit underwhelming. He's posted just a 24.1% hard-hit rate, but that's alongside a 10.3% barrel rate that's added up to three homers in 11 games. This feels like a solid great-right spot for the 28-year-old with a matchup against a recently injured pitcher throwing at Coors Field.
Expect Sugano to throw a mix of four-seamers, sinkers, and splitters to Bleday. What I love about this is Bleday is already hitting four-seamers off righties for a .341 wOBA but has a .431 xwOBA against them. While it's not Sugano's most homer-prone pitch, it's one we could get a really positive result against.
Let's hope Sugano hangs one and Bleday sends the ball a long way during a hot afternoon game at Coors. Now let's flip on over to the other dugout for our next pick.
