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Power Risers and Fallers for Week 6: Buy or Sell?

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano looks at some fantasy baseball bats for week six that have kicked off May either extremely hot or cold in the power department.

Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.

As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. It’s been about six weeks and now these numbers are really starting to mean something, but do keep a level head on the whole when approaching surges.

For reference, here's a tasty little screencap of the premium power tool that much of the inspiration for this article comes from. It pulls the fly-ball, pull and hard-hit rates for players -- metrics associated with power -- and looks at notable recent swings in performance.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Power Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a free sample:

 

Power Risers

Matt Carpenter - (1B/2B, STL):

He’s on a six-game hitting streak and homered in three straight games from May 5-7. I realize this is about power, but he’s already notched 13 walks in just 44 plate appearances after walking 15 times in 88 April PAs. Power plus plate discipline equals jackpot. With a whopping 59.1 percent hard-hit rate and minuscule 4.6 percent soft-contact rate through May thus far, he’s definitely going to qualify as a “riser”. He won’t keep it up at quite this pace but should flirt with 30 homers in 2017.

Mark Trumbo - (1B/OF, BAL):

Trumbo is on a seven-game hitting streak and has socked two long balls in his last three games. He’s scored a run in seven of his last eight and appears to finally be making consistently strong contact. Trumbo’s fly-ball and pull rates were decent through the first month, but his 22.5 percent hard-hit rate was simply unproductive. Well, he’s basically doubled that (43.8 percent) in his 10 May games and looks to be back to form.

Mookie Betts - (OF, BOS):

Yay, the Mook-man has delivered! We pointed toward his potential bouncing back last week and all he’s done over the past four games is jack three homers and log four doubles. He’s taken quite well to batting leadoff and has done well to cut his bloated 20 percent soft-contact rate from April in half so far in May. He’s also hitting fly balls over half of the time now compared to a 36-percent clip last month, so the power stroke is truly coming alive.

Aaron Altherr - (OF, PHI):

Duh. The three-run homer machine proved that he can do other things too, like hit solo homers, on Wednesday. Altherr has connected for 22 batted balls in the month of May thus far, and half of them have been clocked at 100 mph or greater coming off of the bat. Six of those have been at 107.9 mph or more. His fly-ball rate is up 13.5 percent, his pull rate is up 14.5 percent and his hard-hit rate is up 23.2 percent. He’s feeling pretty good right now.

Tommy Joseph - (1B, PHI):

A teammate of Altherr’s seems to be coming around as well, as Joseph has quietly gone 11-for-28 with four doubles and three homers in nine May games thus far. For comparison, he had hit only two doubles and one homer in 67 April at-bats. Now, he isn’t hitting as many fly balls but his line-drive rate has rebounded from a woeful 8.3 percent thanks to his turning some of the 54.2 percent of grounders from April into well-struck balls (hard-hit rate up to 60 percent from 29.2). It’s not a lot, but those in deeper formats who could use some CI assistance should cast a stink-eye at Joseph.

 

Power Fallers

Trea Turner - (2B/OF, WSH):

Turner has gone 2-for-24 without an XBH with just one walk and 10 strikeouts over his last six games, prompting a day off from Dusty Baker on May 8, but it hasn’t quite solved things. He started off 2017 scorching hot by going 20-for-63 with two homers and four steals, but he’s definitely a “faller” here thanks to a soft-contact rate that has doubled to 25 percent.

Anthony Rizzo - (1B, CHC):

Rizzo went off toward the end of April, blasting five homers in just eight games from April 21-29, but since then he has gone ice cold. Sporting a .025 ISO, he’s gone just 4-for-40 with two RBI in 10 games with a horrid 38.7 percent soft-contact rate (versus a 16.1 percent hard rate) in that span. He’s also rocking a 54.8 percent ground-ball rate there, as he’s rolling over the ball with lesser power. We know he’s amazing and should stabilize, but this is a bad look.

Avisail Garcia - (OF, CWS):

It was a fun ride, but Garcia hadn’t produced an extra-base hit since April 29 before a double tonight (May 11) and is reverting back to his over-swinging, not-so-productive self. He still has an absurd .410 BABIP on the season, but it seems like the fun is over. Most of you have likely moved along, but his entering play on May 11 as one of 13 qualified hitters with a .000 ISO.

Max Kepler - (OF, MIN):

Speaking of players with a flat-lined ISO, Kepler has done even worse there. He hasn’t logged an XBH since clearing the fence on April 23. Since then, he’s gone 6-for-32 with three RBI and two steals. And out of the 10 balls that he’s struck at 98 mph or greater since 4/23, none of them have been at a launch angle greater than 10 degrees (eight of them were negative values). Maybe he just really hates gophers right now, but he needs to flip the switch soon and get some lift on those hits.

Yangervis Solarte - (2B/3B, SD):

Solarte’s first game of May saw him launch a two-run homer, but he’s cooled off lately and hasn’t logged an RBI or run scored across his last five games. He’s now 3-for-22 over his last seven games and leads the MLB with a 41.7 percent soft-contact rate in May. That’s not an honor one wants. The aforementioned two-run homer was also the last time he struck a ball at 100 mph or greater and the average distance on his three HRs this season is a paltry 380 feet, which sandwiches him on that leaderboard between vaunted sluggers like Francisco Cervelli and Andrelton Simmons.

 

More Risers and Fallers

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Francisco Alvarez

Needs Thumb Surgery, May Play Through Injury
Willy Adames

Out With Side Soreness on Tuesday
A.J. Brown

on Track to Play in Week 1
Jacob deGrom

Being Skipped in Rotation Due to Shoulder Fatigue
Adley Rutschman

Scratched on Tuesday With Abdominal Discomfort
CBJ

Brendan Smith Joins Blue Jackets on Tryout Deal
STL

Milan Lucic Joins Blues for Tryout
DET

Red Wings Pick Up Travis Hamonic
Austin Riley

Doesn't Appear Ready to Return Any Time Soon
Aaron Judge

Unikely to Throw Normally Again This Year
Jalen McMillan

Could be Out Through Week 9 Bye
Indiana Pacers

Pacers Coach Rick Carlisle Agrees to a Multiyear Contract Extension on Tuesday
Washington Wizards

John Wall Retires After 11 NBA Seasons
Daniel Jones

Named as Colts Starting Quarterback
Jalen McMillan

Will Not Be Ready for Season Opener
Collin Sexton

Hornets Have High Hopes for Collin Sexton
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Start Season Without Contract Extension
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Hopes to Bounce Back in 2025-26
Stephen Curry

Ready to Go for New Season
Orlando Magic

Lester Quinones Agrees to Deal With Magic
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Cleared to Play on Tuesday Night
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Pulled With Hamstring Tightness
MLB

Game 2 of Brewers-Cubs on Monday Postponed
Bryce Miller

to be Activated on Tuesday
Kyle Tucker

to Get Multiple Days Off
Shane Bieber

to Make Season Debut on Friday
Joe Mixon

Could Start Season on NFI List
Zack Wheeler

has Surgery to Remove Blood Clot
De'Von Achane

Unlikely to Practice This Week
Justin Jefferson

Returning to Practice
Chris Godwin

Bucs Chris Godwin Likely to Start Season on PUP List
Joe Flacco

Browns Name Joe Flacco as Their Week 1 Starter
Jalen McDaniels

Inks Deal With New Orleans
N'Faly Dante

Signs Deal With Hawks
Matthew Stafford

Practicing on Monday
Dru Smith

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Austin Dillon

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William Byron

Clinches the Regular Season Championship Title at Richmond
Denny Hamlin

Pit-Road Struggles Impede Denny Hamlin's Chances of a Top Finish at Richmond
Joey Logano

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Leodalis De Vries

Earns Promotion to Double-A
Nathaniel Lowe

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Geoff Neal

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Ketel Marte

Arizona Could Trade Ketel Marte in the Offseason
Carlos Prates

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Page

Dominates At UFC 319
Jared Cannonier

Gets Outclassed
Tim Elliott

Gets Submission Win
Kai Asakura

Still Winless In The UFC
Austin Cindric

has Arguably his Best Run of the Season at Richmond
Ryan Blaney

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Alex Bowman

Finishes Second but Loses Ground in Playoffs
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Bubba Wallace Sets Personal Laps-Led Record at Richmond
Chris Buescher

Falls Out of Playoffs After Miserable Richmond Run
Coby White

Bulls Not Interested in Trading Coby White
Dereck Lively II

Expected to be Ready for Camp
Brian Robinson Jr.

Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.
John Metchie III

Texans Trade John Metchie III to Eagles
Victor Scott II

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Listening to Trade Offers for Trey Hendrickson
Marcelo Mayer

to Have Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
Samuel Basallo

Called Up From Triple-A Norfolk
J.K. Dobbins

Expected to Win Starting RB Job?
Quentin Johnston

Suffers Concussion in Preseason Loss
Jaxson Dart

Plays Well on Saturday Night
Marcus Semien

Avoids Serious Injury
Kyle Stowers

Heads to Injured List With Left-Side Strain
Zack Wheeler

Placed on Injured List With Blood Clot in Shoulder
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Optimistic Terry McLaurin Deal Can Get Done Soon
De'Von Achane

De’Von Achane Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Likely Avoids Serious Injury
Denny Hamlin

the Heavy Favorite to Win at Richmond
Christopher Bell

Has Been Great at Richmond
Tyrese Haliburton

No Longer Using a Scooter, Crutches
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Finally Break Through at Richmond?
Joey Logano

Will Start Last at Richmond After Practice Trouble
Chase Elliott

Lack of Top-Line Speed Hurts his DFS Potential
Kyle Larson

Recent String of Crashes Make Him a Big Risk at Richmond
William Byron

Probably Slightly Too Inconsistent at Richmond to Start for DFS
Ryan Preece

on Pole at Richmond as Playoff Deadline Looms Closer
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best RFK Racing DFS Option at Richmond
Chase Briscoe

Still Figuring Out Richmond
Chris Buescher

a Solid Choice for DFS Play, but Teammates Look Faster
Terry McLaurin

Commanders Activate Terry McLaurin From PUP List
Rashee Rice

NFL Could Reach Settlement Before Hearing
Haywood Highsmith

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Amir Coffey

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Khamzat Chimaev

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Dricus Du Plessis

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Aaron Pico

Set For UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

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Geoff Neal

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Michael Page

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Kai Asakura

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Tim Elliott

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CBJ

Mikael Pyyhtia Re-Signs With Blue Jackets for One Year
UTA

Caleb Desnoyers Expected to Miss 12 Weeks After Wrist Procedure
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Be Healthy for Season Opener
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Olivier Rodrigue Signs KHL Deal
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Emil Bemstrom to Join Swiss Team
Payton Pritchard

Reportedly Moving Into Starting Lineup
Kevin Durant

Rockets Not Interested in Keeping Kevin Durant with Max Extension
NBA

Isaiah Mobley Joins Turkish Team
NBA

Cole Swider Links Up with EuroLeague Powerhouse

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