Points League Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 3

April 24, 2022

Nicklaus Gaut's H2H points league waiver wire pickups for Week 3 of the 2022 fantasy baseball season, identifying free agents pitchers to stream.

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help with all of the best streams for the week.

These fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups are for the week of April 25 - May 1, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN, Yahoo!, or Fantrax. Rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, April 23.

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Know Your System

You know what I'm going to say, right?  You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.

For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Trea Turner being a top-five hitter versus a top-25 hitter.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes, you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

In addition to our overall waiver wire leaderboards, once we're deep enough into the season, we'll also start doing a 21-day leaderboard as well, giving us a window into recent production. All charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

Two-Start Pitcher Waiver Wire Options

Miles Mikolas, STL (vs NYM, vs ARI) - Mikolas has been excellent over his first three starts, posting a 1.76 ERA (2.17 FIP) over 15.1 IP, although, his light strikeout rate will limit his upside. The Mets have been a tough matchup for just about everyone but Arizona is one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Josh Fleming, TB (vs SEA, vs MIN) - Fleming has moved into the real rotation for the time being but has been dicey as an opener, allowing six earned runs in his past 6.2 IP. However, a 24.4% K-BB% is an elite rate, as is a nearly 70% GB%. Minnesota has struggled versus LHP so far in 2021 (.293 wOBA, 25.5% K%) but Seattle has been really tough on them, running a .359 wOBA (5th-highest) and 20.4% K% (6th-lowest). I'd still take the chance.

Jordan Lyles, BAL (@ NYY, vs BOS) - Lyles has been surprisingly good in his past two starts, allowing a total of one earned run over 10.1 IP. But those two starts came against Oakland and a constipated Yankees offense. Even getting New York again, this is a dangerous two-step.

Jordan Hicks, STL (vs NYM, vs ARI) - Given his usage as he transitions to the rotation, two starts will feel a lot more like one, and with no chance to get a win in either.

Michael Lorenzen, LAA (vs CLE, @ CHW) - He's pitched better than his 4.82 ERA says but neither of these matchups is ideal, although the White Sox will probably have another three hitters hit the IL prior to his start.

Chris Paddack, MIN (vs DET, @ TB) - The matchups aren't scary and he pitched well his last time out but I'd still much rather my opponent be the one starting Paddack.

Mitch Keller, PIT (vs MIL, vs SD) - Milwaukee and San Diego have both been mediocre so far vs RHP and Mitch Keller is a mediocre pitcher. Something will give and my bet would be on Keller...Giving up bombs, that is.

Dallas Keuchel, CHW (vs KC, vs LAA) - We talked last week about how friends don't let friends start Dallas Keuchel. So hopefully, none of your friends felt the wrath of his "10 ER in just one inning" magic trick. The same rules apply this week.

Single-Start Pitcher Waiver Wire Options

The Great

Paul Blackburn, OAK (at SF) - Blackburn was stellar again in his last time out, allowing just one earned run over 5 IP in a win over Baltimore. Like we talked about last week, this feels like a skills change; velocity is slightly up, he added a good cutter, he's not walking anyone, while striking out batters at a career-high rate. Blackburn should be rostered everywhere, even on a bad team and with a tough start against San Francisco on the near horizon.

Dylan Bundy, MIN (at TB) - Bundy has a 9 APR after three excellent starts, posting a 0.59 ERA (1.72 FIP) over 15 IP, with a 19.0% K-BB%. The Tampa Bay offense has a middling .303 wOBA vs RHP, with a 26.7% K% that is the 4th-highest in baseball. My sweet, sweet Dylan, oh how I've missed you.

Aaron Ashby, MIL (at PIT) - Ashby returns to the rotation for a prime matchup with the Pirates. But Pittsburgh has been better (but still mediocre) vs LHP than they are vs RHP, currently running a .312 wOBA, with just a 20.1% K%. I'm still betting on the upside and would roster Ashby anywhere I have room.

The Good - Pitchers Waiver Wire

Josiah Gray, WSH (vs MIA) - Miami has actually been sneaky-good vs RHP, running a .326 wOBA that is the 9th-highest. But Gray is coming off of his best start of the young season, dominating a sub-par Arizona offense with 8 K over 5.1 IP, allowing a solo home run with two walks.

Chris Flexen, SEA (at TB) - Flexen isn't flashy and the ceiling isn't high but he has 70 APR and gets a Rays team that has a 26.7% K% vs RHP and a middling .303 wOBA.

Jameson Taillon, NYY (vs BAL) - Taillon (55 APR) has a 3.07 ERA and 20.3% K-BB% over his first three starts and gets a Baltimore offense that has been a disaster so far in 2022 (.265 wOBA, 24.7% K% vs RHP).

Tony Gonsolin, LAD (at ARI) - You can probably go ahead and start just about everyone versus Arizona, until further notice. They have .296 wOBA and 27.7% K% vs RHP and since Tony Gonsolin is both an RHP and also anyone, I would suggest starting him against them.

Dakota Hudson, STL (vs ARI) - See Gonsolin, Tony.

Adrian Houser, MIL (at PIT) - See Hudson, Dakota. Just swap out Arizona for Pittsburgh (.289 wOBA, 26.8% K% vs RHP).

Austin Gomber, COL (vs CIN) - Starts in Coor aren't generally ideal but Gomber has mostly pitched really well at home since getting traded to the Rockies. While he wasn't good in his one home start this season (4.1 IP, 4 ER) he gets a Cincinnati offense that is one of the worst in baseball. Facing LHP this season, the Reds have posted a 27.4% K% with just a .264 wOBA.

Nick Martinez, SD (at CIN) - He hasn't been done any favors by the schedule gods, as his first three starts have come against the Giants, Braves, and Dodgers but Martinez has mostly held his own. He'll face a Cincinnati offense that is one of the worst in baseball, running just a .233 wOBA and 27.9% K% vs RHP.

Brad Keller, KC (at CHW) - The White Sox don't strike out much vs RHP (21.8% K%) but even before losing Eloy Jimenez, they had posted just a .248 wOBA vs RHP.

Michael Pineda, DET (at MIN) - Pineda was excellent in his Detroit debut, shutting out the Yankees for five innings on three hits but only striking out two. He faces a Minnesota team that loves to strikeout vs RHP, posting a 25.4% K%

The Meh - Pitchers Waiver Wire

Bruce Zimmerman, BAL (at NYY) - Zimmerman has been really good, and the Yankees offense continues to be anemic (.293 wOBA, 23.7% K% vs LHP). Still risky but it's a playable stream.

Eric Lauer, MIL (vs CHC) - The Cubs have been really good versus LHP so far in 2022, running a 20.4% K% (6th-lowest) and .340 wOBA (6th-highest).  Lauer has been decent in two starts but do keep in mind they came against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

Glenn Otto, TEX (vs HOU) - I really like Otto's strikeout skills and am bullish on his season-long value. A start against Houston might not look good on paper but the Astros haven't really got going yet, posting just a .290 wOBA vs RHP.

Tyler Anderson, LAD (vs DET) - I refuse to quit Anderson and that nasty seam-shifted cutter. While Detroit has a .324 wOBA vs LHP, they also whiff at a 26% clip making Anderson's lower ceiling useful.

Jakob Junis, SF (vs OAK) - See Anderson, Tyler. Because I also can't quite Junis and his seam-shifted cutter/slider/whatever he wants to call it. He's probably not going deep but Oakland's offense is plenty shallow for him to get you value.

Justin Steele, CHC (at MIL) - Steele wasn't very good his last time out, allowing 4 ER in just 2.2 IP but Milwaukee also isn't very good vs LHP, running a .252 wOBA against them that trails only Arizona and Kansas City.

Erick Fedde, WSH (vs MIA) - Fedde didn't just get brutalized in his last start (3.1 IP, 6 ER), he got brutalized by a bad Arizona offense. Not great.

The Ugly - Pitchers Waiver Wire

Martin Perez, TEX (vs HOU) - I know that Houston only has a .258 wOBA vs LHP so far this season but do you know that to stream Martin Perez is to dance with the devil? Words to live by.

Rich Hill, BOS (vs BAL) - Coming as a surprise to few, Hill (7.00 ERA, 6.0 K/9) hasn't been very good. But he'll face a Baltimore offense that has a league-worst 29.2% K% vs LHP so maybe the old man can turn in a vintage 5 IP/9 K performance. Or, maybe he'll go 5 IP/9 ER. At less than 5% rostered, you can be the one to find out if you so choose.

Chris Archer, MIN (at TB) - Sorry, Chris Archer. You can't trick me. I know as well as you do that you are still a two-pitch pitcher. Have a fun homecoming facing the team that knows your limitations better than anyone.

Patrick Corbin, WSH (at SF) - If you know someone who is considering this stream, they probably have a lot of stuff going on in their lives and could really use a hug. Give them one but then confirm that they will not be streaming Patrick Corbin.

Nick Pivetta, BOS (at Baltimore) - Please tell me you didn't trot out the human gas can last week (4 IP, 5 ER). But if so, please don't get fooled again, even though facing a Baltimore team that has just a .265 wOBA and 24.7% K% should be more than playable. Counterpoint: human gas can.

Relief Pitchers Waiver Wire

Unless you're in a very deep league and/or have a lot of dedicated RP-only slots, most of the relievers you're going to want are the ones who are closers, have a chance to close, or elite setup guys. But I do mean elite because most scoring structures are weighted in a way that relievers almost necessarily have to get saves in order to be valuable. Although, long relievers whose usage you can reliably predict, can be useful in leagues with daily moves. But for a majority of leagues, sticking to closers is the way to go.

Notable IL

• Paul Sewald, SEA
• Pierce Johnson, SD

Closers on the Wire

• Jorge Lopez, BAL - Trusting a Baltimore closer is generally a poor strategy but Lopez is now the clear option, picking up saves on Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday.
• Hector Neris, HOU - Neris is still a must-add until Ryan Pressly returns from the IL but the clock is ticking and Houston didn't have a Save opportunity last week.
• Emilio Pagan, MIN - Minnesota slammed the brakes on the Jhoan Duran hype-train, with Pagan converting saves on Thursday and Friday, while Duran picked up Holds on Monday and Thursday.

Committees on the Wire

• Cincinnati Reds - Lucas Sims returned from the IL on Saturday and while the best bet is on fluidity, I still believe that he'll be the one to take hold of the job if anyone does.
• Oakland Athletics - It's a committee until Lou Trivino returns from the COVID-IL. Zach Jackson got the Save on Tuesday, while Dany Jimenez picked up one on Saturday.
• Seattle Mariners - Andres Munoz is the most talented arm in the mix for saves and picked one up on Friday. But Yohan Ramirez got the chance on Saturday, promptly blowing it. Diego Castillo was OLI (outside looking in) this week, getting passed over for both of Seattle's chances but picking up the pieces (and the Win) after Ramirez's blown chance.
• Boston Red Sox - Matt Barnes got the save on Friday before Hansel Robles blew his opportunity on Saturday.
• Miami Marlins - The Marlins only had one save opportunity this week and it went to Tanner Scott on Saturday. Anthony Bender, Cole Sulser, and Anthony Bass are all theoretically in the mix, as well.
• Kansas City Royals - It's a committee between Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont but only the latter is available in most leagues. Staumont picked up a save on Tuesday but blew his next chance on Saturday.
• Pittsburgh Pirates - Similar to Kansas City, in that only one member of the committee is going to be available in most leagues. The Pirates had opportunities on Thursday and Friday with Chris Stratton getting the save in both, while David Bednar grabbed the Holds. Wil Crowe might be pitching the best, though, and I wonder if he'll get another shot at the rotation.
• Texas Rangers - Everywhere you look will likely list Joe Barlow as the closer but Matt Bush got the save on Saturday after receiving (and blowing) the save on Thursday, with Barlow coming in behind him for the Win.

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