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Which NFL teams can clinch a 2022 playoff berth in Week 17, and which teams must win to keep their playoff chances alive? Mitchell Blatt breaks down the key NFL games of Week 17.
An exciting Week 17 is coming up with playoff berths, division titles, and number-one seeds on the line. Nine teams have already punched their playoff tickets, and two more could clinch berths in Week 17 with wins. Let's look at the games that matter.
Tom Brady can seal his 20th playoff appearance with a victory over the Panthers. The Giants can grab a Wild Card spot by beating the Colts. Green Bay, Seattle, and Detroit are playing to win and praying for losses.
There are also division titles and number-one seeds to be snatched. With 10 seven-win teams, there's a catfight—literally involving Panthers, Lions, and Jaguars—for the final few spots. So what Week 17 games will be most impactful for playoff implications?
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers
The NFC South Title Is Up for Grabs
Whoever wins this is in the driver's seat to win the NFC South title. The Buccaneers clinch the title with just a win, but they cede control to Sam Darnold and Steve Wilks if they lose. The Panthers have to win on Sunday, then beat or tie the Saints on the road to win the division. If this game improbably ends in a tie, then the Bucs retain the division lead and would have to beat the Falcons on the road in Week 18. Tom's team is the three-point favorite to get it all wrapped up on Sunday.
Bengals vs. Bills
The Number One Seed Is On the Line
Chiefs fans will be watching this game with interest. The Bengals are the last hurdle standing in the Bills' way of attaining home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If Josh Allen can get past Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, then Mac Jones in Buffalo will be the last quarterback standing in his way in Week 18. If Burrow wins, the Chiefs would become the favorite to host the AFC Championship Game. That is if the Chiefs can somehow eke out a victory over the Denver Broncos one week after they lost to the Rams by 37 and fired their head coach. If the Bengals win and the Chiefs lose, then the Bengals would be in control of the number one seed.
The Bengals can also clinch a division title with a win and a Ravens loss to the Steelers, but that doesn't matter as much as the number one seed since the Bengals and Ravens have both already clinched playoff spots.
Patriots vs. Dolphins
An Intra-Division Battle for the AFC Wild Card
As with the Bucs vs. Panthers matchup, both teams control their own destinies, but only one team can possibly clinch it this weekend. The 8-7 Patriots can clinch a Wild Card spot with a win and a Jets loss in Seattle. Otherwise, the Dolphins will have to deal the Jets the soul-crushing loss themselves when the Jets come to South Beach in Week 18. For the Dolphins, the Wild Card spot is all theirs for the taking if they beat the Pats and then the Jets.
Steelers fans will be rooting for the Pats. If the Dolphins win this week, the Steelers will be eliminated from contention, and the Week 18 Fins vs. Jets matchup becomes a play-in game. The Steelers' improbable path to the playoffs requires the Pats to beat the Fins and lose to the Bills next week and the Jets to lose to the Seahawks this week and then beat or tie the Dolphins in Week 18.
Giants vs. Colts
The Giants Better Be Able to Win and Clinch
If Daniel Jones can wake up, get dressed, and drive to MetLife Stadium—or at least wake up by halftime—the Giants will be in the playoffs. One win in either this game or Week 18 in Philly clinches the playoffs and leaves only one NFC Wild Card spot to be had by the Seahawks, Commanders, Packers, or Lions.
If a dizzying combination of those teams lose or tie various games, the Giants can also make the playoffs by doing nothing, but do you really want to your team playing playoff football if they can't beat the Colts?
Seahawks vs. Jets
A Near Must-Win for Both Teams
The Jets and Seahawks are both on the outside looking in and need this game. The Jets would be eliminated from contention entirely if they lose. The Seahawks' chances would drop from 24% to 5% with a loss.
The Seahawks' path is complicated. In the event of each team winning their remaining games, they would lose out to the Giants, Commanders, and Packers. They do have the advantage over the Lions in a two-way tie, but not in a three-way tie. Their best hope is that the Packers either lose this week to the Vikings or next week to the Lions and that the Commanders lose next week to the Cowboys. Then we will get to see Playoff Geno.
Lions fans will be rooting against the Seahawks. If the Seahawks win out and the Giants beat the Colts, then the Lions are virtually eliminated from the playoffs—that is, unless the Commanders tie one (and only one) of their final two games.
Commanders at Browns
Winning Would Make Things Easier for Washington
Packers, Seahawks, and Lions fans are all hoping the Commanders slip up this week or next. Win out, and Washington is in. Lose either, and Riverboat Ron is sinking fast. The Commanders also have a clinching scenario this week, but it's unlikely: a win, a Seahawks loss, a Lions loss, and a Packers loss or tie. Because the Commanders have a tie, they have one fewer loss—or half a win more—than the other could-be nine-win teams.
A Giants win and a Commanders loss would drop Washington's playoff chances to 7%, and it would make the Packers the win-out-and-get-in team. A Giants win, a Packers loss, and a Commanders loss would mean the Seahawks control their own destiny. A Giants win, a Seahawks loss, and a Commanders loss would set up an exciting Week 18 showdown between the Lions and Packers for the final NFC Wild Card spot.
Remember last season when some fans were rooting for a tie in the Raiders-Chargers game in Week 18? Lions fans (and a lot of NFL fans, I bet) will be rooting for a tie in one of the Commanders' games. A tie and a win would leave the Commanders at 8-7-2—which is equal to 9-8, which is equal to what the Lions' and Seahawks' records would both be if they win out. The upshot is, the Seahawks already beat the Lions by three in Week 4, so the Seahawks would win the tiebreak in a two-team tie, but in the event of a three-team tie, it comes down to the strength of schedule. The Lions have both of them beaten.
Packers vs. Vikings
Aaron Rodgers Can Keep the Packers Alive
If the Commanders do slip up, the Packers are in control of their own destiny. They just have to beat their divisional foes, the Vikings and the Lions. Since when have Packers fans been worried about losing to the Lions? If the Packers lose to the Vikings, however, their playoff chances fall to 3%. They would have to rely on the Lions, Commanders, Seahawks, and Saints all losing.
Lions at Bears
The Clock Hasn't Struck Midnight
The Lions must win out to keep their hopes alive. They would also need a loss by both the Seahawks and Commanders in one of their final two games, a single tie by the Commanders, or two losses by the Giants.
Eagles vs. Saints
The Eagles Can Clinch the Number One Seed This Week. Or Next. No Rush.
A win over the Saints, a tie this week, or a win or tie against the Giants next week seals the Eagles the number-one seed in the NFC. Two losses would put Minnesota in the driver's seat, while losses by the Eagles and Vikings would make it San Fran's to lose.
Jerry Jones' hopes of hosting an NFC Championship in Arlington are not dead yet. All that needs to happen is for the Eagles to lose their next two and the Vikings and 49ers to both lose one each, the Cowboys to win their next two, then for the Cowboys to win a Divisional Round NFL Playoff game. It could happen!
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