2 weeks agoThere has been a sizable shift in the golf game of Russell Henley over the last month and a half. He began the year by saving most of his rounds on the greens, which has now transitioned to the irons, as he is averaging 1.102 strokes gained on approach over his last four starts. The flat stick has still kept up, though only at 0.207 strokes gained over that same span compared to the 1.27 average he gained in the three events he played in March. He may not do much off the tee distance-wise, but accuracy is usually the name of the game in major championships. It remains to be seen whether this one will play out similarly, however, being the 8th most accurate player off the tee on the PGA Tour means Henley should have more opportunities from the fairway than most in the field, which is exactly what you want at such a demanding venue like Valhalla.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 weeks agoIn the world of "safe plays," it doesn't get much better than Corey Conners. He's 12-for-12 on made cuts in 2024 and is coming off a solid performance at Quail Hollow, ranking second in the field in strokes gained on approach (1.75) and fifth in strokes gained from tee to green (1.86). The course setup at Valhalla fits Conners' game as well, as any major venue could. He's inside the top 100 in nearly all approach yardages for the year, most notably ranking eighth from 200-225 yards. That distance was seen 20.2% of the time here in 2014 and is the median yardage for most par-threes. The 32-year-old will need to find a little magic on and around the greens, as do most notoriously gifted ball-strikers. However, the intangibles everywhere else make him an extremely intriguing play at $8,900 on FanDuel.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: Data Golf
2 weeks agoIt has been a good run for Sungjae Im over his last three events. A few quality finishes to go along with a win on the KPGA circuit have him riding some high waves into Louisville, Ky. Most of the recent success has resulted from a scorching-hot putter that gained him over six strokes on the field at Quail Hollow. What's more impressive is the pedestrian approach numbers he's put up over that same span that has statistically only measured out to 0.315 strokes gained on approach over his last two PGA Tour starts. That is a testament to how well the flat stick is rolling. However, it's also the glaring issue that makes him hard to trust this week. Im is nowhere near long enough to overpower Valhalla (134th in driving distance: 292.9), and his play into greens--aside from a 38th ranking in approaches from 200-225 yards--leaves much to be desired. Expect him to do enough to play the weekend but not enough to be worth the chalk at $9,200 on FanDuel.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 weeks agoDean Burmester played his last tournament on the PGA Tour at the PGA Championship in 2023. The South African golfer wound up a respectable 54th shooting all four rounds above 70. Oak Hill Golf Club was a different animal compared to Valhalla. The Louisville, Kentucky course offers room for a few more birdies. However, Burmester did win the LIV Golf event at Miami this year. He can drive the ball long and is pretty accurate when it comes to greens in regulation (74.87% on the LIV Tour). His form seems to suggest more than his previous results.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
2 weeks agoStephan Jaeger appeared primed to contend on Sunday at the Well Fargo Championship. However, a 75 on Sunday derailed his hopes for a second win in 2024. The other concern is how he played at The Masters a mere two weeks after winning the Texas Children's Houston Open. Even in this latest three-tournament stretch, the German golfer had room for improvement. Valhalla requires good approaches, and Jaeger is merely average (102nd on tour) in approach to the green. He does rank 11th on tour with 4.42 birdies per round. The question is all about Sunday for Jaeger.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
2 weeks agoKeegan Bradley has not had the best 2024 season. However, the American golfer did have a playoff runner-up result at The Sony Open in January. Bradley also has two Top 25 results in his past three events. It comes down to that putter for the golfer. Strokes gained to putting is a woeful -0.576 (174th on tour). However, he is 25th getting balls on the green in regulation and his approaches from inside 100 yards are the best on the PGA Tour. If the weather remains unsettled long enough, Bradley can get shots close for prime birdie chances. That +20000 number to win includes a +1200 for Top 10.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
2 weeks agoAside from a two-week run in March and riding his fellow Irishman's coattails in New Orleans, Shane Lowry has been playing frustrating golf in 2024. It's mostly due to horrendous outings with the putter (168th in strokes gained putting: -0.506), but the around-the-green game has also been lacking in spots (103rd in strokes gained around the green: -0.022). When looking at what's required at Valhalla, Lowry will face incredibly long par-3s that will test his 185th ranking on par 3 scoring average (3.19). His position outside the top 100 in approach numbers longer than 200 yards will put even more stress on that point, along with all the other long looks he'll have this week. Fade Lowry at $9,600 on FanDuel.
--Todd McGill - RotoBallerSource: PGA Tour
2 weeks agoAlex Noren has not won a tournament in 2024 but he has been close a couple of times. The golfer, from Sweden, is 41. Despite the age, Noren has eight Top 25 results this season. That was highlighted by a third at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. His overall game ranks him fifth on tour in strokes gained (1.278). Furthermore, he gets on greens in regulation. That metric ranks sixth at 71.37%. With Valhalla featuring some potentially unsettled weather, Noren could be a factor come the weekend. At the very least, DFS potential is pretty high for his marked consistency.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
2 weeks agoAkshay Bhatia struggled a bit last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. The bookended rounds of 74 led to a result outside the Top 40 for the American golfer. Bhatia did win as recently as early April at the Valero Open. Since then, his form has been a little up and down. It is still better than the three consecutive events where he missed the cut. Anyway, Bhatia still has the seventh best strokes gained overall on the tour. With a high one putt percentage that ranks 24th and a 69.64 scoring average (27th), Bhatia remains a contender anywhere and that includes Valhalla.
--Chris Wassel - RotoBallerSource: PGATour.com
2 weeks agoTony Finau has struggled to build momentum in 2024, evidenced by his back-and-forth strokes-gained pattern in his last seven events. The 34-year-old has paired putting woes with crazy swings in his iron numbers, and the result has been a high-risk, high-reward approach that tends to fall short at tougher tracks. Finau has never played at Valhalla Golf Club, and while he is plenty long enough to compete on a good day, a lack of iron consistency could leave him in some tough spots off fairways and around the greens. The Utah native costs $8,300 on DraftKings, and fantasy managers will likely look elsewhere for a low-floor, high-ceiling play at the PGA Championship this week.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 weeks agoMatt Fitzpatrick looked to turn a corner in his 2024 season when he placed T5 at THE PLAYERS two months ago, but since then he's slowly dropped further and further from contention in each of his last five events. The Englishman putted the lights out in March and April, but he uncharacteristically lost 1.1 strokes on the greens last week to go along with poor approach play and his typically below-average off-the-tee game. Fitz has never played Valhalla, and he's failed to find his red-hot iron ability that aided his two career victories. With his form fully in question, no course history to lean on, and a track that will penalize poor tee-to-green habits, many fantasy managers will pass by Fitzpatrick's $8,900 price tag on DraftKings.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 weeks agoWyndham Clark has played in three PGA Championships in his late-blooming career, but he failed to make the weekend twice, and placed 75th in the other. Recent play suggests, however, that this might be the year for the 30-year-old to make some noise at a PGA Championship event. Clark has never played Valhalla, but many will recall his dominance at Los Angeles Country Club last year in the 2023 U.S. Open, as well as his win at Quail Hollow in the Wells Fargo Championship. Tee-to-green success in big events has been something golf fans have come to expect from Clark of late, and while he struggled mightily on and around the greens last week, there's enough evidence to suggest that the Colorado native can hang around the top of the leaderboard with a decent showing this week. At $9,500 on DraftKings, Clark provides an intriguing second tier pivot point for daily fantasy managers.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 weeks agoDespite withdrawing from the Wells Fargo Championship last week, all signs point to Ludvig Aberg making his second ever major appearance at the PGA Championship in Louisville this week. The 24-year-old appears to have taken the week off for precautionary maintenance, and given his impressive recent form, it's easy to see why daily fantasy sites and sportsbooks have refused to offer a discount. Aberg has placed 14th or better in each of his last four events, including two elevated events and The Masters. With his irons being one of his best assets, and his around-the-green game being his only real weakness, it would surprise no one to see the Swede back in contention this week. If anything, the injury scare lowered Aberg's ownership percentage, so fantasy managers looking for high upside would do well to target an elevated price tag of $10,500 to differentiate DraftKings lineups.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 weeks agoTalor Gooch will make his long-awaited return to major golf this week, as he heads to Louisville for his Valhalla Golf Club debut. The 32-year-old himself claims that he's ready to win in some of the world's biggest events, evidenced by his spicy comments over the past couple of seasons, but he has settled for just two top-5 finishes on the LIV Tour thus far, and is without a win since July of 2023. The Oklahoma native does have some strong iron play to lean back on, but his lack of daunting course history of late should make many fantasy managers balk at his $7,600 price tag. In a field this strong, it would take a near-perfect showing from Gooch to contend on Sunday at VGC.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
2 weeks agoJason Day will make his second career start at Valhalla Golf Club in great putting form, but his strokes-gained approach numbers have been questionable, at best. The Australian gained 0.1 strokes at the Wells Fargo last week, but prior to that, he hadn't gained strokes with his irons since the Genesis in mid-February. A hot putter has been carrying Day, as he's gained 10.2 strokes putting over his last three events combined. The-now 36-year-old was just 26 the last time he played this track, and ironically enough it was his putting that held him back. Considering that long iron play should be pivotal for this year's PGA Champion, fantasy managers will likely look elsewhere rather than rostering a $7,900 Day on DraftKings.
--Tommy BellSource: PGA Tour
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