RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
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Reflection: Last Week's 3M Open
Last week was pretty plain and simple from a GPP standpoint, so I don't want to spend too much time on it, but here goes...
Because so many of the top golfers flopped, you really needed to have either Finau, Wolff, English or two of the three to feel good. Any time a high-priced golfer misses the cut, it tanks all the other lineups because you're now relying on cheaper guys to find their way into the Top 3 of the leaderboard. Unfortunately, nearly all of my lineups had either Fleetwood or Casey, who I felt fairly good about coming into this week.
That being said, neither guy was in a super safe, stud spot, which is why I had recommended going lighter financially on this slate. The value plays were extremely volatile, and the typically safe studs were not as safe. I had a few good calls mixed in my player pool, namely Harris English and Richy Werenski, but it wasn't nearly enough to balance out the brutal showings from my stud golfers this week. It is what it is! On to a refreshing no-cut event in the WGC FedEx St. Jude.
Approach: WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
These two paragraphs from my DraftKings Value Plays article this week do a pretty good job of outlining my simple approach to building lineups for this no-cut, WGC event at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN. So, why work harder than I have to?! Check the full thing out in the link here if you're a premium member, and I'll paste the two paragraphs below...
"... On top of the long iron prowess, we should expect the top end of the leaderboard to play well around the greens, leading to some key bogey avoidance down the stretch. So, let's try to find some guys who check at least two of these three boxes: Long, accurate driver. Solid long iron strokes gained and proximity numbers. Strong around-the-green game.
... The WGC events allow for huge swings from day to day, as guys who have two poor rounds on Thursday and Friday still have a chance to go low over the weekend and save their fantasy owners. We also have some pretty solid data that says the better players in the field typically come out on top in these events. As such, my approach early on in the week seems to be taking two very low-priced golfers who have tons of risk but scoring upside, and then jam in as many "studs" in the $9k range as I can. There are plenty of high upside golfers that can win this tournament in that range, and I like jamming in a few of them rather than one $11,000 golfer and then dipping down to the $8k range. Therefore, you'll see some pretty low prices on my value plays this week. I hope that makes sense."
Staples Over $8.5K: WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Viktor Hovland: $9,400 - About 50%
I thought the Memorial Tournament's extremely fast greens and penal rough would finally spell doom for Hovland and mark his first missed cut since the Honda Classic on March 1st... I was wrong. This kid is simply unflappable right now, and his iron game is one of the best in the world. He even managed to GAIN strokes putting on Jack's diabolical greens for the first time since the PGA Tour took a break. Everything points towards Hovland being a mainstay at the top of leaderboards for a long time coming, and I think this price is too low considering his recent form and dreamy statistics.
Tyrell Hatton: $9,700 - About 40%
In his last three events dating back to his victory at the API in March, Hatton has gained 18.6 strokes putting. Normally that would be a bit of a deterrent, but when you watch this guy play around the greens, it's mesmerizing. His approach swing is super smooth (evidenced by his 2 or more SG: Approach in his last 5 events), he has the ability to drain a putt from anywhere, and his around-the-green game is solid too! This is a true breakout for Hatton, who now has these finishes in his last six events: 4th, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 14th, 6th. Sign me up!
Daniel Berger: $9,600 - About 40%
Berger will unfortunately be popular because he's technically won the St. Jude twice in his career, but the hiccup to that is it was on a different course. He did not play this TPC Southwind track last year, but that doesn't really bother me. Berger came out firing at the Memorial Tournament, but had a really bad Friday round that ended in two bogeys and a double bogey in his last four holes. He missed the cut by one.
In his last five events prior to that, Berger had been lights out. Gaining strokes in every category for three of those events, winning the Schwab, and placing Top 10 in all five tourneys. You know he's been itching to get back out there and prove he belongs at the top end of this field ever since his week was cut short on Friday afternoon in Dublin, Ohio. There isn't a bad thing I can say about Berger, and I think he'll eventually be a $10k mainstay.
Staples Under $8.5K: WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Matthew Wolff: $7,900 - About 45%
There's plenty of risk that comes along with Wolff on a weekly basis, but he's playing very well right now, and this is the kind of track he can gain an advantage on with his long drives. Wolff is consistently gaining strokes off the tee and on approach, and we've seen him eclipse 5.0 SG: Putting twice in the last month now. That shows me plenty of upside, which is what we want in a no-cut event.
Bernd Wiesberger: $6,500 - About 45%
Speaking of upside, this Austrian drained 21 birdies and 2 eagles a week ago at the 3M Open. Normally that would be enough to win a golf tournament, but too many bogeys mixed in brought him back down to T26. This price is simply disrespectful for the 29th ranked player in the world, who has a stellar approach game and can get red hot around the greens. I'll take a bogey/birdie back-and-forth from my cheap players this week, and hopefully Wiesberger can turn a few more of those bogeys into pars this week.
Byeong Hun An: $6,500 - About 40%
Not much to say here. By now you know the positives surrounding Benny An, and you most certainly know the negatives. When he's right, An can stick his irons to three feet consistently. He can be an absolute birdie machine. An is also known as an above-average chipper around the greens. When he's wrong, you're going to see some REAL ugly numbers on his scorecard. However, he has fun with it and never takes himself too seriously, which bodes well for him finishing out the weekend and kicking in some birdies on Saturday and Sunday even if he's 5 over par. That's sounds enticing for a $6.5k golfer in a no-cut event. Let's go Benny!
Joel Dahmen: $6,200 - About 40%
Dahmen was flat out BAD in his two weeks at Muirfield Village Golf Club. However, I'm hoping the time off last week will help him get his irons back to the way they were coming out of the PGA's layoff, when he gained a combined 11.2 strokes tee-to-green in his first three events, logging two Top 20s. Dahmen can play, and he's a prolific scorer when he gets comfortable. The good news is we should know pretty early on Thursday which Joel Dahmen came to play in Memphis.
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