Pablo Lopez (SP, MIA) - Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups

June 17, 2019

Nicklaus Gaut profiles Miami Marlins starting pitcher (SP) Pablo Lopez as a waiver wire pickup or add target for Week 12 of the 2019 fantasy baseball season due to his recent string of strong starts.

BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues

OWNED IN: 31% of All Leagues

ANALYSIS: Pablo Lopez may be available in 60% of leagues today but don't expect that number to remain so high - in fact, it may be heading towards zero. In his past three starts, Lopez has 19 strikeouts over 18 innings, with only two earned runs allowed. These starts weren't against cupcakes either, with two coming against Atlanta and Milwaukee, who are both proficient against right-handers - and one coming against San Francisco, who - admittedly -  is kind of a cupcake.

Lopez's primary pitch is a four-seamer that he's thrown a shade under 40% of the time this year, as well as a two-seamer, a changeup, and a curve - all of which he's thrown around 20% each for the season. But changing his mix - and maximizing the effectiveness of his best pitches - may be what unlocks Lopez for good. And it may have already happened.

Over his first nine starts, Lopez had a combined usage of his two breaking pitches, of around 40% - with it never going over 44%. In his last four starts, that number has risen to 50 %; and in his last start against Atlanta - in which he went six innings with seven strikeouts and one run allowed - Lopez threw his curveball and changeup each at 27%. This change of mix is not only significant because of the results, but because the curveball is arguably his best pitch. But only when he's locating it down in the zone. There, it is a K machine. Anywhere else, and it can get smacked.

If Lopez can continue to locate his curve - and subsequently keep its usage up around 30% - then this new Lopez may leave the streaming category permanently. With a two-start week coming up against two manageable opponents in Pittsburg and St. Louis, now is the time to grab Lopez while you still can.