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Baltimore Ravens RB Alex Collins is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Dominick Petrillo outlines the reasons why Collins will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.
The 2017 season for Alex Collins was a roller coaster. It started off with the Seahawks releasing him in training camp and finished with him being the next big thing in Baltimore. Wait, the Seahawks released a good running back? No wonder they can’t run the ball.
Anyway, after the injury to Danny Woodhead which left him irrelevant for the rest of the season and the suspension to Kenneth Dixon for the 2017 season, Collins flourished in the Ravens offense. At least someone did...
Collins rose all the way up to a third-round ADP in many leagues this preseason and is a starter on most fantasy rosters entering Week 1. But what if he isn't a sure bet to repeat last year's breakout?
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Stop the Hype - Alex Collins
In 15 games for the Ravens, 12 of which he was the starter, Collins rushed 212 times for 973 yards and six touchdowns while catching 23 of 36 targets for 187 yards in the pass game. These are good numbers for the first year in an offense, especially after coming in late in training camp. 2018 may be a little different though as Kenneth Dixon should return to take some work away from Collins along with Javorius Allen also in the mix for passing-down work. While some people are not big on Dixon, there has to be something said for the fact he suffered a season-ending injury in 2016 and was suspended for the season last year and the Ravens still held on to him. This means they obviously see something in him and he could get more work than people think in this offense.
Saying this, it may be a little risky taking Collins at his current ADP of pick 3.04, which has only been going higher and higher as the season gets closer. We know the Ravens are going to want to win with defense and small ball football including running the ball and using tight ends. The only reservation is the three-headed committee set to erupt in 2018 along with the drafting of not one, but two rookie tight ends for Joe Flacco to use. Hayden Hurst and to a lesser extent Mark Andrews will be highly utilized in an offense which should be better than last season as Flacco tries to do what Alex Smith did last season in Kansas City and hold off a highly touted rookie through the season. While Lamar Jackson may be the future for the Ravens, at least for 2018 Flacco is still the present and this means more work for the tight end duo and possibly less for the running back committee.
Am I staying away from Alex Collins entirely? Absolutely not. He is the most talented member of the backfield and he is probably the most talented member of the team who will play a significant role this season. At 3.04 though, the hype is out of control and you are drafting him at his ceiling, and maybe even above it. This means if he has a solid year or even good, he will not bring back the draft value needed from a running back one or two on a fantasy team.
If he were slotted as a weekly flex play or RB3, it would be a lot easier to swallow having drafted him with confidence at a later position, based on his production level both last season and his potential production in 2018. If you've already burned an early pick on Collins, temper expectations or use him as early-season trade bait.
