RADIO
Kyle Bishop considers the appropriate time to write off the current season and begin building for the future in keeper leagues in this week's edition of The Friday Meta.
It happens to the best of us. No matter how much preparation you do or how many angles you consider, sometimes it just ain't your year. A lost season isn't always your fault - luck often plays a larger role in the proceedings than most of us care to admit. That may be cold comfort, but it's true nonetheless.
Regardless of whether your status as a probable also-ran is due to strategic blunders or factors beyond your control, the fact remains that a championship simply doesn't seem to be in the cards for you this season. Sure, there's a lot of season left to be played. Maybe you'll get lucky, ride a few hot streaks, and find yourself right back in the thick of things. But if the odds don't favor that outcome, what should you do in formats that don't start from scratch every spring?
In keeper and dynasty leagues, owners have to consider the long-term implications of every roster decision they make. When finding oneself staring up at rivals in the standings, then, thoughts naturally turn to the future.
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The Right Time to Rebuild
Some owners find the idea of giving up this early in the season to be repellent. The fantasy baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint; anyone who's played for a while has at least one story about an epic comeback, whether it's their own or a leaguemate's. There are folks out there who would shudder at the thought of selling off assets until it's abundantly clear that the current season is a lost cause.
On the other hand, if an owner has determined that the chances of taking home the crown, finishing in the money, or even just making the playoffs are slim, there is little to be gained from staying the course - and plenty of potential reward in beginning the rebuild process as soon as possible.
The closer to your league's trade deadline you get, the more likely it is to that you'll have to competition in the marketplace from other sellers. You'll also have a larger pool of potential buyers from which to draw, as most owners are probably still focused on trying to win this year. Additionally, at this juncture in the season you can make a strong case for a higher rate of return on your best assets, simply because they'll make more of an impact the sooner a contending team can acquire them. You may also be able to maximize the value received for players who are overachieving by dealing them before the inevitable regression hits. And, of course, every day you delay in trading a player is another day in which said player could suffer a significant injury or other issue that torpedoes his value.
The counter to all of this is that there is almost certainly less urgency on the part of your rivals at this point in the season. With this much runway remaining, savvy owners may figure they have plenty of time to shop around for the best deal, or simply work the waiver wire in an effort to improve their station. A seller would consequently have less leverage now than in a month or two, when contenders and bubble teams are under more pressure to strengthen their rosters for the final push and could be susceptible to overpayment as a result of desperation.
There's also the question of ethics and competitive balance. Throwing in the towel early in the season could be construed as unsporting, and some owners may not take kindly to it.
When deciding whether or not it's appropriate to begin playing for the future instead of the present, you need to consider a number of factors. Are you truly out of the running, or just frustrated with a struggling team that could still turn things around? Can you successfully make a case to your rivals that you should receive a larger return in trade by making deals now, rather than waiting until later in the year? What kind of blowback might result from an early selloff?
In the end, as usual, context rules the day.
The Friday Meta is Kyle Bishop's attempt to go beyond the fantasy box score or simple strategic pointers and get at the philosophical and/or behavioral side of the game. It is hopefully not as absurd, pretentious, or absurdly pretentious as that sounds.
