RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Friday, August 21st, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/21
- Philadelphia Flyers (-135) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+115)
- St. Louis Blues (-135) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+115)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.25 |
| Montreal | 2 | 7 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 13.25 |
| St. Louis | 20 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 17.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchups | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Philadelphia | 21 | 12 |
| Montreal | 19 | 13 |
| St. Louis | 7 | 15 |
| Vancouver | 6 | 20 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Ryan O'Reilly ($5,900 DK/ $6,900 FD)
One Blues player that has really stepped his game up during the postseason has been Ryan O'Reilly. He has scored 10 points in just eight postseason games played but has really ramped up his offensive efforts by taking 14 shots over his last four games played. O'Reilly is now centering the top line for the Blues as he and David Perron join Jaden Schwartz which has been an effective unit that has truly kept this team alive in this series. If the Blues want to survive and pull out a victory against the Canucks, they will need a strong performance from O'Reilly and company.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Elias Pettersson ($7,000 DK/ $7,400 FD)
- Kevin Hayes ($5,400 DK/ $5,000 FD)
2) DFS Winger: J.T. Miller ($6,600 DK/ $6,900 FD)
One winger that has been flying under the radar throughout the playoffs has been J.T. Miller. He has posted a total of 10 points throughout the playoffs with half of those being goals. He has been extremely active shooting the puck as he has 15 shots on goal over the last four games played and has recorded double-digit DK performances in seven of his nine postseason games played.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- David Perron ($6,400 DK/ $7,200 FD)
- Jaden Schwartz ($6,000 DK/ $5,900 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Alexander Edler ($5,700 DK / $4,500 FD)
Alexander Edler is one of the better cash game plays on the slate for the defenseman position. He tends to see a lot of ice-time and is positioned great to get peripheral stats while skating on the top defensive line while seeing time on the second powerplay unit. While he doesn't have much scoring upside, he does a great job getting his linemates involved in the action which ends up resulting in a good amount of assists. The ceiling is somewhat limited but the floor is high for Edler's production which is great for cash games.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Alex Pietrangelo ($6,700 DK/ $6,300 FD)
- Shea Weber ($6,000 DK/ $5,500 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Carter Hart ($7,500 DK/ $8,600 FD)
Every time that Hart has been made the top goalie option in this article, he has gotten lit up by Montreal. Every time that he has not been placed as a top option, he has gone off for 20+ DK points. It is time to reverse that trend and have him dominate when we play him! Philly is one of the heavier favorites on the slate and with Brendan Gallagher being out for Montreal, that only benefits the Flyers from an offensive and defensive perspective. Hart is at a tremendous price point where he can be rolled out in all formats which allows you to spend salary elsewhere.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Phillip Danault ($4,200 DK/ $4,600 FD)
- Brayden Schenn ($4,900 DK/ $5,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Jonathan Drouin ($3,700 DK/ $4,200 FD)
- Joel Farabee ($3,600 DK/ $3,500 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Travis Sanheim ($4,000 DK/ $4,300 FD)
- Troy Stetcher ($2,900 DK/ $3,700 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Jake Allen ($7,600 DK/ $7,500 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
These two-game slates can be very tricky and once again, we are faced with a challenging slate that looks like game stacking is the path to victory from a gpp standpoint. The Flyers and Canadiens look to be an up and down series with three of their five games hitting the under while the Blues and Canucks series has hit the over in three of their five postseason games played. The Blues and Canucks series looks to be the better spot to attack from a game stacking standpoint since they have produced a faster pace of play, more scoring chances, and more high-danger scoring opportunities.
The top line for the Blues has extremely strong numbers against Vancouver and is the top stack on the slate. In just 52 minutes of ice-time against Vancouver, they have sported a 72.13 corsi with 47.13 scoring chances per 60 minutes of play while generating 20.69 high-danger chances for per 60 minutes. They have also done a great job limiting their opponents to just 13 scoring chances per 60 and holding opponents to just 4.6 high-danger opportunities. With Vancouver having the home line matching advantage, we will most likely see their second line with Bo Horvat match up with the Blues top line which gives their own top-line featuring Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller a better overall matchup.
Stacks:
- STL 1- Schwartz, O'Reilly, Perron
- VAN 1- Miller, Pettersson, Boeser
- PHI 2- Farabee, Hayes, Konecny
- PHI 1-Raffl, Couturier, Voracek
- MON 1- Drouin, Suzuki, Armia
