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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 12, 2023.
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It’s been a while since it last happened, but tonight is looking like chalk-Edmonton night. You’re either going heavy on them, or you’re fading (or nearly fading) them. Given some of the other strong options on the slate, it’s not a wild idea to go heavy on those other teams and run one hedge Oilers lineup just in case (I can hear the anti-hedge Discord yelling at me already). The value is surely there to find a secondary stack to make Edmonton viable, but you’re not locked into them with teams like New York, Pittsburgh, and Winnipeg in great spots as well. You want to get your lineups right, as it’s Tuesday and that means the prize pools the biggest they’ll be all week.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; five of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $20-entry Tuesday Twenty with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 178-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Winnipeg Jets (WPG1 - Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey, ???)
Kyle Connor left the Jets last game early, and it’s expected that he will miss tonight’s game. If he does play, that’s great and he’s easily someone to add to this stack, but if he’s officially ruled out then whomever gets his spot on the top line will provide a great value for this strong matchup. If I had to take a guess I’d assume Alex Iafallo gets that spot as he spent a large percentage of this year on the top line and he played his best hockey of the year during that time.
The Jets are the top play on the slate tonight as they get the benefit of facing one of the worst defenses in the league. San Jose has allowed the second-most high-danger chances per game of any team on the slate. They also have surrendered over three even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home, and even with some positive regression they still wouldn’t get under that three-goal number. There aren’t any defensive pairings we’d want to avoid for San Jose, but the Okhotiuk/Rutta pairing is the one that’s been the most generous. They’ll get a significant amount of ice time against the Jets top line and that’s why it’s the line that we are going to use as our main tournament option.
New York Rangers (NYR2 - Artemi Panarin, Alexis Lafreniere, Vincent Trocheck, Alex Fox)
At first glance, the data doesn’t have the Rangers ranked as the second-most desirable team to stack, but when you take some other factors into play they become far more attractive of an option. That’s not to say that the Rangers have a bad matchup because they sure don’t as the Leafs have allowed 13.92 high-danger chances on the road over their last ten games, and advanced data shows that they should have allowed nearly three even-strength goals per 60, which is a big number. What’s even more appealing is that Toronto has allowed almost a full goal less, so they are due for negative regression. Those are both the kinds of numbers that get a team onto the Heat Map as a play. The reason the Rangers rank so highly is that Toronto is on the second night of a road back-to-back and they have Martin Jones in net. Jones has only played one game so far this year, but it was a terrible game. He’s never been a great goalie anyway, and with Toronto’s poor defense in front of him, it’s not looking like he will have any help to improve tonight.
The defensive pairing we want to attack for Toronto is Rielly/Brodie, and they should get the most ice time with the Rangers fourth and Rangers second lines. The fourth line is a value option, but that second line for the Rangers is dynamic. Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox have some sort of mental connection that makes them one of the most feared duos in the league. Fox has six assists over his last three games, and Panarin has four goals and three assists over his last four games. None of that is to even mention a white-hot Vincent Trocheck, who has seven assists and three 20 DraftKings point games over his last five outings.
Vincent Trocheck’s career-best pace is lifting up #NYR in every way.
“Like people say, forecheck, backcheck, Trocheck,” Artemi Panarin quipped with a smile. https://t.co/ot31FSO70q via @nypostsports
— Mollie Walker (@MollieeWalkerr) December 11, 2023
Edmonton Oilers (EDM1 - Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zack Hyman, Evan Bouchard)
It’s rare that I ever get the Oilers in a lineup because of how pricey they are, but tonight it’s hard to ignore them. There is more than enough value on this slate to pair with Edmonton, and they also have a very nice matchup. Edmonton is one of only two teams on the slate to average more than three even-strength goals per 60 minutes, but unlike the other team, their projected negative regression is negligible. This lets me know that the Oilers are looking like one of the highest-expected scoring teams tonight.
Their matchup is incredible against the Chicago Blackhawks. They have allowed well over three even-strength goals per 60 on the road in their last ten games, and even if you factor in positive regression they would project to allow 2.86 goals. The Blackhawks have shifted around their defensive pairings so it’s hard to determine which grouping to attack, so it’s safest to just roll with the best line for Edmonton (including Even Bouchard on defense). Keep an eye on our Discord before lock as the Oilers tend to play with their lines on a nightly basis and it’s not unreasonable to think that their top line could look different by the time the puck drops.
Others in consideration: PIT2, OTT2
Top Value Stack of the Night
Detroit Red Wings (DET2 - Lucas Raymond, Joe Veleno, Michael Rasmussen)
All of the value options, irrespective of the matchup, look about the same. Once you consider the matchup, the Red Wings start to separate a little bit from the rest of the pack. They are on the road, facing a Blues team that just keeps getting worse at home. Over their last ten games, St. Louis has allowed nearly 15 high-danger chances per game; the largest number on the slate. When a team, at home, is worse than the Sharks you tend to take notice. The Blue have also allowed just shy of three even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home over their last ten games, but the data shows that they should be half a goal worse!
Detroit is dealing with many injuries so their lineup could change a little bit. Be sure to keep an eye out in our Discord for any updates to this stack, or any other Red Wings stacks we may decide to use. One way or another, we are getting Detroit exposure tonight.
Others in consideration: NYR4, ARI3, TB3
Top Goalies to Target
Adin Hill or Logan Thompson (Vegas Golden Knights)
Adin Hill is currently listed as the projected starter for Vegas tonight, but he’s missed the last five games and it’s unclear if he will be healthy enough to play. If he does, he’s a great option as one of the most consistently fantasy-useful goalies in the game. He’s allowing fewer than two goals per game and 17 or more DraftKings points in six of his last nine games. He’s been even better at home, averaging more than 20 DraftKings points per game and allowing 1.60 goals per game.
Calgary has been a merely average offense, and that’s with them outsourcing their projections. This is not a scary matchup at all and one that can be used in both cash and tournament lineups. If Hill is out and Logan Thompson gets the call, he’d be a fine pivot, although Juuse Saros and Sergei Bobrovsky start to enter the conversation for your cash games.
Others in consideration (GPP): Tristan Jarry, Connor Ingram, Jordan Binnington, Carter Hart, Thatcher Demko
Others in consideration (Cash): Juuse Saros, Sergei Bobrovsky
