February 9, 2016

Dustin Nelson analyzes backup NHL goalies for daily fantasy hockey lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel. These DFS goal tenders can be sneaky lineup plays when starting.

At this point in the season we have a pretty good sense of how every goaltender is playing. There’s always going to be some variance, but we have a nice sense of what to expect, this side of hot streaks and slumps, across the board.

That winds up making it tricky to find a good goaltender at a low price in daily fantasy hockey play. The cheap guys are usually backups and the book isn’t quite as written on them. We tend to run with a goaltender from a good team in that scenario, looking to at least grab a win. But there are some metrics we can use to strip away some of the variables and get a better sense of what backups are really playing well.

One of these metrics is even strength save percentage. This is important because if a back up like Darcy Kuemper has only played five games. But in one of those five, the Wild took 10 penalties. That can drive down his save percentage and not tell you the whole story, particularly in a small sample like we’re looking at there. So we use even strength save percentage to see how well the goaltender is actually playing, with a little less noise from power plays or 6-on-5 scenarios.

Sneaky Backup Goalies for NHL DFS Lineups

Let’s take a look at the five second stringers who have posted the best even strength save percentage this season. These goalies are sneaky options to consider in your daily league hockey lineups when they are playing:

1. Jhonas Enroth (G, LA)

I’m setting a threshold of 10 games to qualify for the list and Enroth is at the minimum. Quick gets the majority of the work, but if you can identify a game Enroth is playing far enough in advance, he’s not a bad start. His even strength save percentage of .946 is the best of the league’s non-starters.

A big part of that is obviously L.A.’s impeccable defense, but you can’t hold that against him.

2. Reto Berra (G, COL)

Berra has been out with an ankle injury, but his .945 even strength save percentage is notable because the defense in Colorado isn’t consistent or impressive. That can be a drawback of running with Berra in daily. You can see that inconsistency in his drop from being ranked third overall in even strength save percentage to 20th in all situation (traditional) save percentage. That’s the biggest drop between the two categories of any netminder on this list.

Another drawback to Berra is fear that the strong numbers isn’t actually the player you’re rostering. He hasn’t been nearly this good in the last two seasons. So, unlike some other guys on the list who have at performed at this level before, Berra is a bit of a wild card. The fear would be that his save percentage is all variance and not talent, meaning the floor could drop out at any time.

3. Michal Neuvirth (C, PHI)

Neuvirth has been fantastic in Philly. He’ll be coming off a small injury shortly, but he’s been a fantastic start any time you can drop him into your roster. However, he might not come as cheap as some of the others on this list. He’s playing better than any of them by the metrics used to determine cost in daily.

In addition to getting more work than most backups — 21 games — his all situation save percentage is the best in the NHL.

4. Darcy Kuemper (G, MIN)

This one might take you by surprise. Kuemper had a terrible season last year. But there’s a lesson we can all take from Devan Dubnyk: don’t judge a goaltender based on their worst moments. It may be the most visible, but it’s not necessarily the most telling.

Kuemper has been very good this season, posting a .939 even strength save percentage. That’s the 12th best mark league-wide. However, with the Wild’s recent struggles — which are not solely offensive, as you’ve been told —Kuemper may not be the best start until the team has cleared themselves of their current woes.

5. Thomas Greiss (G, NYI)

With a .938 even strength save percentage, Greiss rounds out the list. With 22 games, the sample isn’t all that small. He’s gotten some extras starts due to an injury to Jaroslav Halak, but he’s played well enough that he should keep getting some work.

There’s no reason to fear for his status either. J.F. Berube’s fantastic NHL debut isn’t going to unseat Greiss when he’s playing as well as he has been.

Bonus: Jacob Markstrom (G, VAN)

Markstrom has been hit and miss, but he’s been excellent on the road so far. In nine road matches he has a .962 even strength save percentage, the best road mark of any goaltender in the NHL.

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