NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/4): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, February 4th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/4

Washington Capitals (-110) vs. New York Rangers (-110) - 6.5O
Nashville Predators vs. Florida Panthers (-122) - 5.5U
Dallas Stars (-110) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-110) - 5.5U
Ottawa Senators vs. Montreal Canadiens (-250) -
Vancouver Canucks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-177) - 6.5O
Carolina Hurricanes (-195) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 5.5O
Arizona Coyotes vs. St. Louis Blues (-162) - 5.5U
Calgary Flames (-121) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 6.5U
~~Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche (-162) - 5.5O~~

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Washington	18	23	30	11	21.75
NY Rangers	23	2	27	19	16.5
Nashville	19	15	16	5	16.75
Florida	28	10	26	7	14.75
Dallas	2	14	6	23	7
Columbus	3	25	4	8	14.25
Ottawa	30	3	7	23	12
Montreal	19	18	13	2	16.75
Vancouver	19	4	24	18	14.5
Toronto	26	13	29	6	20.25
Carolina	11	29	21	3	16.75
Chicago	16	1	14	13	10.25
Arizona	3	8	9	14	12.25
St. Louis	5	28	17	21	14
Calgary	16	8	12	15	14
Winnipeg	10	7	15	17	11
Minnesota	23	21	20	25	20.25
Colorado	6	15	28	9	16.5

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK%
Washington	17	23
NY Rangers	7	6
Nashville	24	20
Florida	10	28
Dallas	13	12
Columbus	27	17
Ottawa	31	19
Montreal	22	28
Vancouver	4	21
Toronto	6	16
Carolina	8	8
Chicago	28	4
Arizona	18	18
St. Louis	3	5
Calgary	12	22
Winnipeg	15	8
Minnesota	10	13
Colorado	19	25

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Auston Matthews, TOR ($8,500 DK / $8,700 FD) - Matthews will be a very popular option on this slate as he draws a very favorable matchup against Vancouver. Matthews has registered a point in eight out of nine games played this season and has scored double-digit DK points in eight out of nine games as well.
Nick Suzuki, MTL ($5,700 DK / $5,900 FD) - The Montreal 2nd line has been extremely good to start the season and part of this is due to the play of Nick Suzuki. Suzuki has registered a point in nine out of ten games this season and sits third overall in total points scored for the Canadiens.
Jordan Staal, CAR ($4,100 DK / $3,900 FD) - Staal is centering the third line for the Canes and is paired with a dangerous winger in Andrei Svechnikov which only gives him more of a bump when it comes to his actual on-ice production. Staal has registered a point in four straight games and has notched multi-point efforts in back-to-back games.

Other centers to consider: Barkov, Pavelski, Scheifele, Zibanejad, Aho, Tavares, Trocheck, Duchene, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Backlund, Johansen, Compher

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD) - The price point on Ovi is just too good to pass up on both sites and he could very well go overlooked in this matchup against the Rangers. Ovechkin has only scored two goals to start the season so some might be turned off based on his lack of goal-scoring production early on in the season but as we have all learned before, Ovechkin can easily flip that switch and find the back of the net at any moment.
Jamie Benn, DAL ($5,600 DK / $7,300 FD) - The Dallas Stars got some firepower added to their lineup once Jamie Benn returned to their top line. Benn has recorded a goal in his previous two games played and has generated five total points over that two-game span as well.
Mikael Granlund, NSH ($4,400 DK / $5,100 FD) - Granlund continues to produce for Nashville and his price still remains in the bargain bin range which makes him extremely cash game viable. Granlund does a good job racking up peripheral stats and is close to averaging a point per game ratio to start the season.

Other wings to consider: Kane, Tkachuk, Marner, Laine, Ehlers, Svechnikov, Toffoli, Hornqvist, Copp, Arvidsson, Kessel, Bjorkstrand, Hoffman

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Jeff Petry, MTL ($6,500 DK / $5,500 FD) - Petry is one of the hottest players in all of the NHL and he is in a great spot against Ottawa. Petry is tied for the most points scored on the Canadiens so far this year and he has generated a point in 80% of games this season.
Ryan Ellis, NSH ($5,300 DK / $5,100 FD) - The pricing on Ellis is too good to pass up over on DK as he is in the low 5k range. While Ellis has not generated a good chunk of points so far this year, he has seen 24+ minutes of ice time in five straight games and is averaging over two shots on goal and two blocked shots per game.
Ben Chiarot, MTL ($4,000 DK / $3,900 FD) - If the price tag on Petry is a little too tough to handle for your lineups, you can always go down a bit and consider rostering Ben Chiarot. Chiarot skates on the top defensive pairing with Shea Weber and while he doesn't have the point upside like Weber or Petry, he sees a solid amount of minutes per game and does a great job of averaging four peripheral stats per game.

Other defensemen to consider: Carlson, Hamilton, Klingberg, Josi, Parayko, Faulk, Pionk, Trouba, Dunn, Miller

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Carey Price, MTL ($8,500 DK / $8,600 FD) - Carey Price is looking like one of the top goaltenders in the league and we all know that he has this kind of upside anytime he is on the ice. Price is 4-0-2 with a 2.77 goals allowed average and a .903 save percentage. He has been in great form as he is only allowing two goals per game over his last three games played and gets a great matchup against a Senators squad that takes 31.3 shots per game but is only averaging 2.4 goals scored per game.
Frederick Andersen, TOR ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD) - This could be a good paced game which means Andersen could see a decent shot volume Thursday night against the Canucks. Vancouver takes 31.2 shots per game and averages 3.4 goals per game so there is some risk to rostering Andersen but he is 5-2-1 on the season and always has a chance to squeak out a win as he plays with great talents like Matthews, Marner, and Tavares.
Vitek Vanecek, WSH ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD) - The young Caps goaltender is seeing plenty of action early on this season as he has carried the load in net for Washington while Samsonov still remains out due to COVID-19. Vanecek is 5-1-2 on the season with a 2.94 goals allowed average and a .913 save percentage and has made 30+ save attempts in five straight games. The Rangers are averaging 2.8 goals per game but take 32.6 shots per game which is the fourth highest shots per game rate in the league.

Other goalies to consider: Bobrovsky, Khudobin

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

TOR 1
- Hyman/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, D-men add on/ Draisaitl PP add on)
  - The entire Maple Leafs team looks to be in a solid spot against the Canucks as Vancouver allows 3.69 goals per game but the main forward line focus should be the Toronto top line which is led by Auston Matthews. They tend to match up with the opposing team's top line and in this case, it would be the Matthews line skating with the Pettersson line. in 58 minutes of ice time this year, the trio of Maple Leaf forwards listed above are carrying a 3.41 expected goals for while generating 37.76 scoring chances per 60 minutes and 18.37 high danger opportunities. The Pettersson line has struggled defensively as they carry a 3.38 expected goals allowed average while allowing 34.52 scoring chances and 17.26 high danger opportunities allowed.
DAL 1
- Benn/ Pavelski/ Radulov (Klingberg, D-men add on)
  - This line for Dallas caused headaches for the Blue Jackets defense on Tuesday night as they scored two goals at even strength and posted a 66 corsi for percentage. In addition, they generated six scoring chances and three high-danger opportunities throughout 10 minutes of ice time together. The Pavelski line saw a combination of both the first and second line throughout their game on Tuesday and they look to have dominated both matchups. Make sure to check the Dallas lines before line lock as Pavelski originally started on their second line but was quickly bumped up to join Benn and Radulov.
MTL 1
- Drouin/ Suzuki/ Anderson (Petry, D-men add on)
  - Montreal is squaring off against Ottawa which means they should see some ownership spread throughout their team based on their matchup against a horrific defensive team. Montreal is red hot right as a team as they have scored 4.4 goals per game to start the season which is the highest goals for average in the NHL. The second line for Montreal has been tremendous to start the season as they have a 3.12 expected goals for average while generating 34.17 scoring chances per 60 and 14.18 high danger opportunities. They should see a mixture of the top two lines for Ottawa but should see more of the Tierney line which bodes well for Montreal 2. That Ottawa line has is allowing 35.97 scoring chances per 60 and has a 2.4 expected goals allowed average so far this season.