RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
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In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, June 3rd, 2020 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/3
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- Boston Bruins (-130) vs. New York Islanders - 5O
- Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-145) - 5.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give a preferred play (varies on slate size) at each position and then other options at different price points so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Brayden Point, TB ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) - The Lightning have now gone up 2-0 in the series against the Canes, and with them now getting back-to-back games on home ice, this sets up nicely for Tampa and more specifically, their top line featuring Point and Kucherov. Point has scored two goals over his last three games played and this line should match up against the depth of the Canes which bodes well for the top Tampa line.
Other centers to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Bergeron, Aho, Trocheck
- Mid-Tier- Barzal, Krejci, Nelson
- Value- Staal, Pageau, Cirelli
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- David Pastrnak, BOS ($8,100 DK / $7,900 FD) - Pastrnak has been white hot as he has scored eight points over his last four playoff games and just continues to fire the puck at will. Pastrnak is averaging over five shots per game over his last five and has managed to score double-digit DK points in nine out of his last 10 games played. If you're wanting the best floor and best ceiling skater on the slate, look no further!
Other wings to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Kucherov, Marchand, Stamkos, Svechnikov
- Mid-Tier- Beauvillier, Teravainen, Hall, Palat, Necas
- Value- Eberle, Bailey, Killorn, Palmieri, McGinn
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Charlie McAvoy, BOS ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD) - McAvoy has continued his great play and there is no reason to not continue rolling him in all formats. He is in great form as he has racked up 17 peripherals and six points over his last five games and is seeing over 25 minutes of ice time per game during that stretch.
Other defensemen to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Hedman, Hamilton
- Mid-Tier- Pulock, Grzelcyk
- Value- Sergachev, McDonagh, Reilly, Brodie, Cernak
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Andrei Vasilevskiy, BOS ($8,200 DK / $8,400 FD) - The Lightning will be on home ice for Games 3 and 4 which gives Vasilevskiy a nice boost as they look to expand upon their 2-0 lead on Carolina. Vasilevskiy has been extremely dominant on home ice as he is 20-2-1 when tending the net in Amalie Arena. In addition to his impressive home record, he has a 1.86 goals allowed average, a .935 save percentage, while also posting four shutouts. In the first two games against Carolina, Vasilevskiy has seen a total of 70 shot attempts which means he could rack up save opportunities and ultimately be the highest scoring goalie on the slate.
Other goalies to consider based on my preference:
- High Priced- Rask
- Mid-Tier- N/A
- Value- Mrazek
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- TBL 1
- Palat/ Point/ Kucherov (Hedman, D-men add on)
- The Lightning got a big boost right at the beginning of the playoffs with the return of Nikita Kucherov and this top-line has really excelled at all strengths throughout the playoffs. They have scored four total goals in just over 100 minutes of ice time and have an expected goal for rate of 2.01 per 60 minutes of ice time. The pricing on this line isn't as costly as the top Boston line will be and with the home-ice advantage, they make a nice leverage play on his two-game slate in tournament builds.
- Palat/ Point/ Kucherov (Hedman, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider in order of preference: BOS 1, NYI 2, CAR 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
