RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, February 22nd, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/22
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- Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Carolina Hurricanes
- Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Dallas Stars vs. Florida Panthers
- Buffalo Sabres vs. New York Islanders
- Los Angeles Kings vs. St. Louis Blues
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche (indoors)
- Anaheim Ducks vs. Arizona Coyotes
- Minnesota Wild vs. San Jose Sharks
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a nice eight-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the 16 goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one even touch the North Division clash? It's a great question. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Anaheim Ducks vs. Arizona Coyotes. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, Tampa Bay and Carolina could be a wild game given that Carolina won via a shutout over the weekend. Does Carolina go back to James Reimer or do they trust their young goalie? There will be plenty of questions.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs offer the most scoring potential but there could be many surprises. Minnesota and San Jose may feature more goals than expected. San Jose features little or no defensive resistance. The problem becomes consistency. Which players can one trust?
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, etc but also easier to go with one-offs, etc.
The Los Angeles and St. Louis game is a true wildcard. St. Louis' most consistent trait is again their inconsistency. No one quite knows what to expect here but their special teams give as well as receive. Los Angeles becomes a possible beneficiary.
Finally, the New York Islanders and Buffalo Sabres get together and the Sabres may have some issues scoring but are also showing signs of breaking out offensively. New York has scored three or more goals in eight of their last 11 meetings versus Buffalo, however.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Auston Matthews, TOR ($9,000 DK / $9,200 FD) - Matthews is our top pick because of the goal potential. He has 13 goals in his last ten games and is riding a 14 game point-scoring streak. Consider that he commonly tops 4+ shots on goal with a moderately high potential of eclipsing five shots. That means Matthews brings the DraftKings shot bonus into play. Calgary is giving up almost four goals a game during this half-dozen game cold spell they are on. Matthews gets the rare designation of being priced at or over $9,000. That is for good reason. The Toronto Maple Leafs' center can be stacked with the Toronto power play or some of his line 1 cohorts. Yes, there may be an eventual regression but it is rare to see a player average 20+ FanDuel and DraftKings points per contest this far into the season.
- Mathew Barzal, NYI ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) - We are digging into the tiers tonight to scour out value. Barzal brings the fun and against a team like Buffalo is a very good option. Buffalo is susceptible to counter-attacks the other way and Barzal excels at that. Also, the Sabres' penalty kill always seems to have trouble versus the New York Islanders' power play. Anders Lee is that net-front presence that tends to hurt Buffalo the most. Looking at Jean-Gabriel Pageau on a night like this is not a half-baked idea either.
- Joel Eriksson Ek, MIN ($5,200 DK/ $4,800 DK) - There is a bevy of upper-priced talent on Monday so we head into the middle-tier for Eriksson Ek. He has seven points and four goals in his last nine games along with 2.6 shots per game. This goes with three scoring chances a night. Minnesota is in a unique position where one can stack line one or go even riskier and look at line two (value). San Jose is historically bad defensively without Erik Karlsson and a slew of younger players. San Jose on offense though has weapons like Tomas Hertl and Logan Couture.
This is again a medium slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. It seems expected. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with Anaheim and Arizona as Trevor Zegras will likely play for the Ducks. Do not forget that Minnesota and San Jose late game either.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Jordan Kyrou, STL ($4,900 DK / $4,300 FD) - It is too hard not to try and take one more shot at this with Kyrou here. He looked great over the weekend on the top line and it was more than just the goal scored. Kyrou had speed and acceleration everywhere. Against a less than mobile Los Angeles team, this should be a considerable asset. Then, there were the two assists, several quality scoring chances, and the feeling that Kyrou felt comfortable handling the workload. If he keeps playing 16-17 minutes plus a night, the opportunities will come. The Blues have quite the talented offense and special teams. They are one of those squads that play in the fun realm. Kyrou plays a big role in that when his game is focused and on target.
- Kevin Fiala, MIN ($6,700 DK / $6,200 FD) - Fiala is priced a bit high but could prove to be still valuable. The last two games against a less-than-stellar defense in the Anaheim Ducks brought two of Fiala's best performances of the season. He appears over any COVID symptoms and early-season rust. Also, he had 5+ shots in both of those games and has goals in three of his previous four outings. Fiala's biggest asset is his shot off the rush. Teams know this and still have a tough time stopping it. San Jose allows so many unblocked shot attempts and the most DFS points to wingers. Yes, there are tons of top options on Monday but taking a half-step down will not hurt either.
- Sam Reinhart, BUF ($4,500 DK/ $5,300 FD) - Reinhart is at last on the top line again with Taylor Hall and Jack Eichel. This elevates the Buffalo top line with power-play correlation. This cannot sit well with opponents. Reinhart has fired nearly three shots a game on goal and has a point a game in his last nine contests (five goals). His time on ice has been over 20 minutes a game in the last several games too. The New Jersey game showed why Reinhart has to be front and center on the power play. He moves all around the attacking zone creating opportunities. When he has confidence, Reinhart becomes a must-play in most fantasy hockey circles. His price is a good bit cheaper than it should be. Take advantage of this while you can.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply Trevor Zegras of the Ducks comes to mind. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Drew Doughty, LAK ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD) - With St. Louis a bit of a mess defensively, Doughty's shots could get through and his blocked shot floor elevates because of how the Blues play at home, in particular. The Los Angeles stalwart defenseman averages right around two blocks and two shots a night. He has 11 points (nine assists) in his last ten games. Also, Doughty has an astonishing eight power-play points on the young season. Few expected a career resurgence out of the Los Angeles top line and first defensive pairing. However, here we are. Doughty's price is right on the cusp of the top-tier but still worth the addition.
- Devon Toews, COL ($5,300 DK / $4,900 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Toews still sees some solid power-play time and that is essential in looking at plays. Toews plays a rover-like position on defense which means he has more chances to create and block shots. Against Vegas in the last three contests, Toews has ten blocks. He also has four goals and seven points in the last nine games. Again, his price should be a bit higher but Cale Makar helps shield his price a bit. People tend to forget about Toews a little which is beneficial. There are ways to spend up a bit on defense while still being below the median price point.
Sneaking in Keith Yandle could pay off here. One can pick on Yandle as well so he who the defenseman is up against line-wise from Dallas. However, that DraftKings price is below $4,000 for a power-play specialist. Expect a few more picks as we get some line matchups later in the day. For value options, pairing shifts will be more significant.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Frederik Andersen, TOR ($8,300 DK / $8,700 FD) - With the higher chance of a win, Andersen gets the nod here. What may be crazy is the fact that Andersen has played much better in five of his last six starts. Throw out the one debacle against Ottawa and the numbers look even better. Maybe the goaltender is finally over that early-season groin strain that slowed him down laterally. Either way, he has allowed two goals or less in this time span. The last two games have featured big wins with around 30 shots against per. Calgary expects to generate that kind of shot volume so Andersen could be in for a solid night again. He just has to keep his rebound control in check especially after allowing a goal.
Other goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (back to back scenarios and short slate)
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for the Islanders tonight along with Carolina. The early games have some value but the setup is key. If James Reimer is starting for Carolina then expects goals and pivot elsewhere.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- TOR PP 1
- Matthews/ Marner/ Thornton (Reilly, D-men add on)
- ARZ 1
- Keller/ Schmaltz/ Garland (Ekman-Larsson, D-men add on)
- MIN 2
- Kaprizov/ Johansson/ Zuccarello (Dumba, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: NYI PP 1, MIN 1, STL 1, BUF PP 1, FLA 1, CAR 2, TBL 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
