RADIO
Chris Wassel delivers his top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for February 11th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is in full swing and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, February 11th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/11
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- Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Islanders
- Edmonton Oilers vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Chicago Blackhawks
- Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets
- Detroit Red Wings vs. Nashville Predators
- Carolina Hurricanes vs. Dallas Stars
- Anaheim Ducks vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
- San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With the ten-game slate (again, for now) picking the right goalie is essential. Out of the goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one even touch any North Division team? The answer is probably not. Consider that there are a ton of options (if one does not take Connor Hellebuyck).
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Chicago Blackhawks. See who starts for Chicago because if it is Malcolm Subban, then all bets are off. The obvious goaltending targets will be from Winnipeg and Vegas. Some may gravitate toward Dallas because of potential Carolina shot volume. Detroit and Nashville may be a total mixed bag. These are two of the worst penalty kills in the league this season. It could be a dud or a high-scoring game and little in between. Expect high volatility.
Goaltending will feature a lot more risk tonight than the average large slate. The challenge is surviving the potential goalie changes around morning skate or so.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Winnipeg Jets are going to rank very high tonight along with the Calgary Flames. Here is why. Ottawa and Vancouver are two of the worst defensive teams in the league. Both Winnipeg and Calgary have top-sixes which should be able to compromise those defenses early and often.
It will be the top power-play units that draw the focus and rightfully so. However, there is always Vegas and how their top-six should be able to crater Anaheim at even strength. Then, there will be Florida and Tampa Bay. Those are top-sixes that often generate a ton of chances against each other. It has been that way in recent seasons as both teams typically combine for around 70 shots.
The goal is to try and keep these as concise as possible. Some asked why yesterday's post was so long and that was to set up numbers for tonight's slate specifically.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Mark Scheifele, WPG ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) - Scheifele is a top pick simply because one gets top-line production without having to spend up a tier here. While Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (center on FanDuel) will command higher salary allotment, Scheifele allows a little more flexibility. Also, Ottawa allows the most DFS points to centers and gives up over four goals a game on the road. One could even go down the line for Winnipeg and pick a center or two in the lower tiers to supplement one's roster. See Calgary's middle-six options for this rationale as well (Vancouver ranks second-worst).
- Vincent Trocheck, CAR ($6,200 DK / $5,000 FD) - Trocheck did not play on Monday but could tonight. So, he is on our watch list. Now, keep in mind, he only qualifies as a center on FanDuel. Note that price. If he cannot go, Jordan Staal will again rise up depth charts fast and his price is much more attractive on DraftKings especially along with his production. Going to the other side, Trocheck and a player like Anthony Cirelli are often compared quite frequently. The Tampa Bay forward has that kind of upside. What do we mean? Potential for a point or two, 4+ shots and chances, etc.
- Jack Roslovic, CLB ($4,100 DK/ $4,300 FD) - Roslovic shows that maybe a change of scenery was all that was needed along with the playing time. Whatever the case may be, no one knows how long the center will be able to keep up this level of production. His price has not gone up much. Tonight's price is the first jump after a five-game point streak. It took that long. In the last two games, he has played over 20 minutes a night. If that ice time continues, the young pivot will find tons of chances especially versus a Chicago team that loves to yield them.
This is a larger slate so it is okay to look at an Elias Lindholm (low shot but high point potential). The wait on Vegas and Anaheim's status will be real all afternoon and that is why we will not have any picks for those teams. We are not using the NHL's words here. It is a matter of just being smart. Look for that Zach Hyman type of pick tonight and that could lie in Carter Verhaeghe. The Florida forward pulled up with a doughnut in his last game but has six goals on the season. Furthermore, he is the kind of forward that can create matchup problems for Tampa Bay. Looking for those disturbers can yield unexpected gains on a slate where there are many offensive options.
One last thing, do look at the Penguins-Islanders contest. The Pittsburgh defense is still in shambles and worse comes to worst, Sidney Crosby as a one-off is not a bad idea either.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Patrick Kane, CHI ($7,600 DK / $8,200 FD) - The Kane shooting floor (especially for the DraftKings shot bonus) is high here as he is often right at the four to five-shot amount with at least eight shots attempted. Chances are plentiful with the forward but remember to see who his line is paired up against because this is a top-ten line for shots created but often shots and chances allowed too.
- Filip Forsberg, NSH ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD) - Some bad luck leads us to Forsberg and again only because of the uncertainty of a game or two on this slate. However, the wing is firing shots at breakneck pace. He has 5+ shots on net in five of his previous seven games and 3+ scoring chances in all seven. If a center could just get him a few more opportunities. That sounds crazy but literally, Detroit does not have a player that could keep up with Forsberg right now. That bodes well for this game tonight in particular.
- Anthony Mantha, DET ($4,700 DK / $6,200 FD) - Mantha averages around three shots a game and yes, Detroit comes in averaging less than two goals a game over the previous ten contests. However, with Nashville being equally woeful in their own end when it comes to the penalty kill and goals snowballing, Mantha becomes a play here. There are a litany of options on this night aside from the usual studs -- even Steven Stamkos.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly Vegas and Anaheim as we await their status and that of players. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are a go on rosters if their game is as well. Unfortunately, we just have to be patient. Their matchup is an excellent one versus Anaheim and that is obvious.
The key tonight may just be looking at the unexpected. It has been a season full of it. Hell, in full disclosure, we rode the Dustin Brown line to money on Tuesday night using the logic of high expected goals for with San Jose. It will be a strategy used again tonight as both teams can be attacked for opportunities.
Watch for line shifts again as the early afternoon approaches.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Darnell Nurse, EDM ($5,600 DK / $5,600 FD) - Jeff Petry is the most consistent defenseman on this slate, and for good reason. However, inching a little bit more risk and saving a few hundred in salary leads us to Nurse who has the rested matchup (Petry played last night). Nurse has four goals in his last five contests but more important has 3+ shots in four of the last five along with solid blocked shot possibilities. Stat padders are always appreciated in DFS and the shots and blocks bonuses on DraftKings are plausible. Yes, Tyson Barrie can also be utilized if one wants to save a little more.
- Alec Martinez, VGK ($6,100 DK / $4,100 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Injuries and uncertainty with Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo raise the stock of Martinez (provided Vegas plays tonight). Now, if for some reason, Vegas does not play tonight, who could be the utility and cheap stat padder? Few block shots and get shots on net like Martinez does which explains his price difference of $2,000 here (again bonuses). Filip Hronek does not block many shots from Detroit but his price is attractive against a poor Nashville penalty kill. He has had some bad luck and could pad your floor tonight. That would be the Martinez alternate.
The rush to spend up to Roman Josi is warranted along with Victor Hedman on a night like this but there is logic in looking at cheaper options on those teams like Ryan Ellis and Mikhail Sergachev respectively. Again, there are different ways to spend tonight -- more than usual.
Also, from the value bin, Pierre-Oivier Joseph is quite a little find. He seems to be at the right place at the right time offensively. He has four points in his last three games and is being trusted more and more in Pittsburgh due to all the blueline injuries.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD) - With the higher volume likely, Varlamov should rank pretty high tonight. He has faced 30+ shots in his previous two starts and the expectation is New York will keep playing a bit more wide open which should again allow for better shot volume yielded. He may give up a couple goals but again the price is mid-range and reasonable.
Other goalies to consider: Lehner (If VGK plays), Allen?, Khudobin, Lankinen, Saros (value).
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, watch for confirmations.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- WPG 1
- Scheifele/ Wheeler/ Connor (Morrissey, D-men add on)
- CGY 1
- Monahan/ Gaudreau/ Lindholm (Giordano, D-men add on)
- MTL 2
- Drouin/ Suzuki/ Anderson (Petry, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: VGK "2", EDM PP 1, NSH PP 1, DET PP 1, SJ 1 (Burns Kicker), TB 2, NYI 1
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
