January 2, 2016

Nick Mariano analyzes some NFL Week 17 DraftKings DFS sleepers for your daily fantasy football lineups. These DFS players are recommended DraftKings picks.

Well would you look at that. It feels like just yesterday that I was writing about Week 1 DFS plays for DraftKings, and now it's the last week of the NFL regular season. Week 17 is a pretty volatile one to tango with, as we've got plenty of banged up folks who are in danger of sitting or being pulled early. There really aren't any teams that are sitting their guys as of now, but you've got to keep your eye on reports for teams that could lock up their spot late, or rest guys in the second half (like the Patriots). As always this late in the season, be careful that you aren't drawing too much out of numbers that pertain to the whole season, as the red hot stretch from Weeks 2-4 aren't really going to do much for you in Week 15.

Let's look at the Vegas lines. The games with the highest projected point total is the 53 total for the New Orleans-Atlanta matchup. The second highest total is 51, projected for the Philadelphia-NYG game. Those are the heavy hitter games, after which are games like New England-Miami, Seattle-Arizona, Pittsburgh-Cleveland, Tampa Bay-Carolina, Detroit-Chicago, Jacksonville-Houston, and Minnesota-Green Bay all hovering around 46-47. Take note of those games in particular as we enjoy when points are on tap.

There is still plenty of value calling far down on the player lists in DraftKings player pool. We'll note additional plays in the "other names" quick hit, but the full blurbs will be reserved for plays that I feel require some context.

Week 17 DraftKings Quarterback DFS Picks

Sam Bradford (QB, PHI): $5,300 - @NYG

It's only appropriate that I start this with the quarterback that I had such high hopes for in Week 1, Sammy Biscuits. Now there is no projecting how the Eagles' offense is going to look without Chip Kelly leading the troops, but what I do know is that the Eagles do have a decent amount of talent on offense and that the Giants have very little coherence and chemistry on defense. They have talent, but the unit itself is trash. Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz are both great plays this week in conjunction with Bradford, and heck even DeMarco Murray may be utilized more and run with the pent up anger of 2015 at his back against a divisional foe that he wants to crush. The point here is that Bradford has enough talent around him and a great matchup here, so for $5,300 the upside is absolutely worth it.

Brian Hoyer (QB, HOU): $5,100 - vs. JAC

Hoyer the Destroyer is now cleared to play and he will get to face a Jaguars defense that has just been really something terrible lately, notably so against the pass. Hoyer won't have Cecil Shorts, but he still has DeAndre Hopkins and that is more than any quarterback really needs, while also having field stretcher Nate Washington in tow. Houston's running game is nothing special, and the matchup is great for the passing attack to open up against the Jaguars. At near minimum price, taking him might get you an affordable stack with Hopkins. The Texans defense has been playing well, but the Jaguars offense is a powerful group as well and probably won't be totally shut down. Meaning that Hoyer should have to make some moves along the way to a victory.

Other cheap plays: Brock Osweiler, $5,100 vs. SD, Alex Smith, $5,100 vs. OAK, Ryan Fitzpatrick, $5,400 @BUF.

Week 17 DraftKings Running Back DFS Picks

Frank Gore (RB, IND): $4,000 - vs. TEN

Frank Gore had a great game last week against a Miami defense that, well quite frankly, anyone should be able to run on. Still, it was refreshing to see Gore convert the opportunities into points after a long stretch of not doing so. The Colts are likely going to have Josh Freeman or Ryan Lindley under center on Sunday, which means that Frank Gore should be about 80% of the offense. The hope here is that the Colts are smarter than the Vikings were when they rolled out Josh Freeman against the Giants years ago and had him throw the ball way too many times. The Titans aren't lighting the world on fire either, so this is as good a shot to take as any for four grand. Even though Gore can't be anywhere near 100%, the opportunity is worth it. Dan Herron isn't poaching much of anything here, and if there is a chance at points, it will be Gore's to score.

C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN): $3,700 - vs. SD

C.J. Anderson did fumble last week against the Bengals, but he wasn't punished really and still looked to be the better runner compared to Ronnie Hillman. Now he and the Broncos get to face the Chargers defense that is 26th in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. This game should see the Broncos' defense and running game leading the charge in a game that shouldn't see Denver needing to stress itself too much. San Diego is still a divisional opponent and will play them well (the last game between these two was disgusting), but the probability here is that Denver's running game is the prime candidate to carry the load for the Broncos as they look to control the game and lock up the AFC West title.

Tre Mason (RB, STL): $3,000 - @SF

Todd Gurley is still rocking a walking boot as of now, and given that the Rams aren't playing for the playoffs then there really isn't a reason to risk their superstar if he's really not 100% against a sunk 49ers team in the 2015 regular season finale. This should mean that Tre Mason will get most of the work (though Benny Cunningham will mix in no doubt) against a 49ers defense that has that big shiny "32nd" next to their name as far as fantasy points allowed to running backs on DraftKings. Fire up Tre if you need or want a minimum play at RB or your Flex that has a pretty healthy ceiling/floor combination.

Other cheap plays: DeMarco Murray, $4,000 @NYG, Ronnie Hillman, $4,200 vs. SD, Javorius Allen, $4,400 @CIN, Chris Ivory, $4,400 @BUF (*if Bilal Powell doesn't play).

Week 17 DraftKings Wide Receiver DFS Picks

Roddy White (WR, ATL): $3,600 - vs. NO

Roddy White saw six targets last week against Carolina (second most on the team), and looked to be as involved in the offense as he ever has in 2015. It hasn't been a pretty year for the vet, but now he gets a Week 17 matchup in a game against one of the worst defenses we've ever seen. A lot of the attention is going to be on Julio Jones, and rightfully so, but this is the sort of game where Roddy White could fall into a stat line that looks like 7-100-1. For this price and this matchup, I'll take a chance given his recent uptick in usage.

Nate Washington (WR, HOU): $3,600 - vs. JAC

Nate Washington is Houston's very own boom or bust DeSean Jackson zero route guy. This means he is the tournament play here against a Jaguars team that has been eviscerated on the back end lately. Washington has shined in games where Cecil Shorts has been inactive. The Jaguars may shift lots of their coverage towards DeAndre Hopkins as well, leaving Washington in man coverage that can beaten deep. It's been a long time since Nate Washington put up nine catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins, but that is the tournament upside line you want to chase here. This game profiles better for Washington delivering that than last week's where you were relying on a Zach Mettenberger led Titans' offense to force Houston to need to play.

Keshawn Martin (WR, NE): $3,000 - @MIA

The Patriots' wide receiving corps is pretty darn beaten up. As of now, Keshawn Martin is the #2 WR behind Brandon LaFell. Now the Patriots will get to feast on the very poor Miami Dolphins defense, which has just been destroyed lately. Now to be fair, last week was a little wonky in the targets since LaFell was sacrificed to Darrelle Revis, but all the same, it was Martin who led the team by a wide margin with 11 targets from Tom Brady. The Patriots aren't in the business of messing around, and they're coming off of a momentum jamming loss last week in overtime to the Jets. Bill Belichick will want to roll into the postseason hot, and while he may bench starters after a strong first half if the lead is big enough, Martin isn't exactly a coveted piece and the Pats aren't deep enough at wide receiver to bench Martin. Also, obviously if they've gotten out to a huge lead, the hope is that Martin helped them get there. For the minimum salary here, this is a solid play.

Other cheap plays: Chris Hogan, $3,000 vs. NYJ, Josh Bellamy, $3,000 vs. DET, James Jones, $3,800 vs. MIN, Tavon Austin, $4,100 @SF, Travis Benjamin, $4,100 vs. PIT.

Week 17 DraftKings Tight End DFS Picks

Jacob Tamme (TE, ATL): $3,300 - vs. NO

For this price, Jacob Tamme is still worth throwing on a team considering he gets to square up with the Saints this week. The Falcons' 2015 season is over after this one despite a big win against Carolina last week, but they will want to go out on a winning streak considering how awful the middle of their season was (and you know, you'd like to think teams like winning). The Saints are 32nd against the tight end according to that lovely number from DraftKings, so there might be some additional ownership to Tamme, but his recent performance may drive people away. It would be unwise to have any sort of heavy exposure to Tamme, but the juice is worth a little squeeze here.

Eric Ebron (TE, DET): $3,000 - @CHI

Ebron has done decently in his two most recent matchups ever since Brandon Pettigrew suffered a season ending injury. Ebron only saw five targets last week against the 49ers, but he still caught four of them for 49 yards. The week before that against the Saints he almost scored twice, but had to settle for a four catch, 79 yard effort. He is a big target out there and they love trying to get him in space out in the flat and let him run after the catch. No one is going to feel thrilled about playing Ebron, but there is very little surrounding him that is really discouraging here. There also just really aren't many other cheaper plays that have his upside. While the Bears have played against tight ends pretty well, Ebron profiles more like a big slot receiver rather than a pure tight end in Detroit's system.

Chris Gragg (TE, BUF): $2,500 - vs. NYJ

The Buffalo Bills' passing attack is pretty banged up, having lost Robert Woods and Charles Clay for the year. This meant that Chris Hogan and Chris Gragg were #2 and #3 in the target count behind Sammy Watkins for Buffalo last week. While Gragg only saw three targets, the Bills were locked in battle with an annoyingly stifling Cowboys' defense that comes coupled with a very ineffective offense that didn't really force Buffalo to need to sound the war trumpets. The Jets might call for another plan of attack though. Not only do the Jets defend the run well (though Buffalo ran well on them the last time they met), but Darrelle Revis should lock onto Sammy Watkins. This means Tyrod may need a lot more from the likes of Hogan and Gragg.

Darren Fells (TE, ARI): $2,500 - vs. SEA

Here's a minimum price long shot dart throw. This game should see some points fly, and while Fells is fifth on the pecking order in Arizona behind the trio of great receivers and David Johnson at running back, Carson Palmer can still generate plenty of offense and Seattle has quietly struggled against tight ends this year (24th in DraftKings points allowed to TEs). This isn't that great of a play, but if you want another minimum price option other than Gragg, here's where I'd go.

Other cheap plays:  Heath Miller, $3,300 @CLE, Kyle Rudolph, $3,500 @GB, Zach Ertz, $3,600 @NYG.

Week 17 DraftKings Defense DFS Picks

Philadelphia Eagles, D/ST: $2,300 - @NYG

So, I know Odell Beckham is coming back into the fold for the Giants this week, but they are just capable of looking so horrible any given week that this divisional matchup might be a ripe spot for the Eagles defense and special teams to deliver. The games between these two teams are rarely pretty, and with zero playoff implications on the line along with a coaching switch for Philly, this game could just be straight up gross. The Giants' defense shouldn't do their offense any favors, and the Eagles defense has shown that it has some electric guys who can take it to the house. They also have Darren Sproles as their return guy, and he's pretty good.

Dallas Cowboys, D/ST: $2,100 vs. WAS

The last game between these two was a lesson in "How Not to Offense" for the first 59 minutes honestly, and the Cowboys defense has shown that it deserves respect despite the horrible year that the Cowboys are having. Despite an atrocious offense, the defense always keeps the games close and has a great line that can generate tons of pressure. Washington may not be playing their starters for the entire game (if at all), and it could prove to be a great spot for the Cowboys' defense to feast on a bit of a B Squad out there for Washington. For near minimum price, that's more than enough factors in favor of them for me to throw Dallas on a team.

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