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Happy Holidays, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the game on Sunday, December 24, 2023. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Sunday
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David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs, 53.5 & 47.5 Rushing Yards (HIGHER)
The Detroit Lions backfield may be a crowded one but David Montgomery has a tight hold on the rushing attempts. He currently holds a 44% rush attempt share compared to Jahmyr Gibbs's 35% share. However, Gibbs holds the snap share with 49% compared to Montgomery's 38%. The Lions' backfield is in a good position to hit the over on their rushing total. Using the Proptimizer, both have an implied total of -109 (52.15%) to hit the over.
Montgomery is projected for 64.7 rushing yards while Gibbs is projected for 50.8. While David Montgomery has hit the over in the past five weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the over in four of his last five games. They get the Minnesota Vikings defense, who currently rank sixth versus opposing running backs, but they have to find a way to slow down both backs. Trying to do so gives the Lions an advantage by keeping both fresh, rotating between the two.
Tyler Lockett, 49.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
Tyler Lockett keeps getting a heavy workload every game and should continue to do so this Sunday. Lockett currently holds a 23% target share, which leads the Seattle Seahawks' receiving core. He has only dropped below five targets once all season, which was Week 1. In his past five games, he has seen five targets or more. The receiving yards have not been on par with what is expected for Lockett but he remains to be a huge factor in games.
The Seahawks will be facing off versus the Tennessee Titans and they currently rank 25th against opposing receivers. With that, Lockett is projected to have five receptions on seven targets for 50.8 receiving yards. Using the Proptimizer, he has an implied total of -107 (51.69%) to go over. Geno Smith is expected to be back under center and if so, this Seahawks offense should continue riding off of the momentum from Monday's showdown versus the Philadelphia Eagles.
Garrett Wilson, 5.0 Receptions (HIGHER)
Running it back with Garrett Wilson this Sunday after a disaster of a play last week. Wilson and the New York Jets get to face the Washington Commanders, the second-worst defense versus opposing receivers. After a disappointing three-reception game for 29 yards, we can expect a better output. He's projected for five receptions off of 8.4 targets for 56 receiving yards. What makes this an even better play is that the Jets offense has no one else to look to performance-wise besides Breece Hall. Xavier Gipson and Allen Lazard aren't special players to rely on.
While Wilson is a strong play receptions-wise, his receiving yard total sits at 62.5, which is a tad too high to play with a projection of 56 receiving yards. He may be able to hive five receptions quickly as long as Zach Wilson comes out confidently under center like his Week 14 performance.
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