NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 4) - Targets and Avoids

October 1, 2022

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Week 3 saw the most entrants in survivor pools make it through so far, but those who had Kansas City did not have a happy Sunday. The Chargers were not picked by as many as one may have thought.

Week 4 has a no-brainer play and one team that could be deemed risky, but you'll never have the chance to use them again.

All season long I'll be bringing you weekly survivor pool columns on NFL teams to target and avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2022 NFL season. 

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 4

Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Packers -9.5 vs. Patriots, Eagles -6.5 vs. Jaguars

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 4

Lions -4.5 vs. Seahawks

The last time Detroit was a legitimate survivor option was the Matthew Stafford Calvin Johnson days. But they are my top option this week. Detroit should be 2-1, but bad coaching and not being able to run the clock out did them in against the Vikings. They are sixth in yards per play and have rushed for the third-most yards this season. The offensive line not only creating huge holes, but also protecting Jared Goff who has only been sacked four times in three weeks. Now they return home to face a terrible Seattle team.

The Seahawks threw people off the scent with their Week 1 win against the Broncos, but don't expect them to win anytime soon. Against the Falcons Sunday, Seattle forced one punt. That a week after getting blown out by the Niners. Geno Smith is a below average starting quarterback and will need 28 points to win this one.

There will not be a better chance to take the Lions this year.

Lions 33 - Seahawks 20

Packers -9.5 vs. Patriots

The Packers have won two straight after their Week 1 blowout in Minnesota while the Patriots are a couple plays away from being 0-3 and now without starting quarterback Mac Jones. New England has an above average defense, it may not show in the stats but their defense held Miami to 5.2 yards per play. Bill Belichick will slow Aaron Rodgers down early, but they won't be able to fully contain him.

Brian Hoyer will be put in a position to succeed, but it comes against a very good defense.

Packers 27 - Patriots 14

Eagles -6.5 vs. Jaguars

Jacksonville has a very good chance in this one behind their stellar defensive line. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' offense have not faced a defense of this caliber yet.

There's also no reason to take Philly here when they still play the Steelers, Commanders, Colts, Titans, and Bears. Plenty more chances to use the Eagles.

Eagles 26 - Jaguars 24

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 4

Chargers -5 at Texans

This Chargers' season could get derailed very quickly. Justin Herbert is banged up and clearly not himself, Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater are on the injured reserve. Houston has been competitive in all three games this season and are a couple plays away from being 3-0.

Texans 24 - Chargers 23

Steelers -3.5 vs. Jets

It doesn't matter whether Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco start. This game has more to do with the Steelers' incompetent offense. They rank 30th in yards per play and have scored four offensive touchdowns in three games.

Steelers 16 - Jets 14

NFL Best Bets for Week 4

• Bengals -4 vs. Dolphins - Miami's defense was on the field for 41 minutes Sunday against the Bills. Their offense is 27th in yards per play. This is a short week for the Dolphins to go on the road and face a well-rounded Bengals team that seems to have figured it out.
• Browns -1.5 at Falcons - Atlanta has been playing better than most expected, but Cleveland has extra rest for this one and will control the game behind their top-ranked rushing attack.
• Bears +3.5 at Giants - I am not in love with this pick at all, but the Giants' offense is not that good. This will be a low-scoring game where points will come at a premium.

Running Totals

• Last Week: 2-1
• 2022 season: 8-1
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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