NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 18) - Targets and Avoids

January 4, 2022

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

Welcome back RotoBallers to another edition of our Survivor Pool Picks article. So far 11 playoff spots are already locked up heading into Week 18, and seven teams are vying for the final three.

All the big favorites took care of business last week, but the Jets were awfully close to beating the Bucs. How will things shake out in Week 18? Below are some of my picks, good luck for those still in it.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 18

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Bills -16.5 vs. Jets, Colts -15.5 at Jaguars, Titans -10.5 at Texans, Chiefs -10 at Broncos, Bucs -8 vs. Panthers, Cowboys - 7 at Eagles, and Patriots -7 at Dolphins.

A lot of these lines may have changed due to COVID. This article was published Tuesday.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 18

Bills -16.5 vs. Jets

Buffalo is looking to clinch the AFC East with a win. They will win this one but the Jets have been playing a lot better recently. 16.5 points is a lot.

Bills 33 - Jets 20

Colts -15.5 at Jaguars

Colts are in a win-and-in situation. Jonathan Taylor will dominate the Jags.

Colts 41 - Jaguars 17

Titans -10.5 at Texans

Tennessee could get the top seed in the AFC and a bye with a win. They should get it, but Davis Mills continues to improve each week.

Titans 27 - Texans 23

Bucs -8 vs. Panthers

Carolina is another offense that looks lost. In their last three, they're averaging 3.7 yards per play which is second worst in the league. If Tampa can get to 24, they'll easily cover.

Bucs 31 - Panthers 13

Chiefs -10 at Broncos

This game is Saturday at 4:30. Kansas City still have a chance at the one seed if they win and Tennessee loses. Denver's offense has been abysmal in the last three weeks scoring one touchdown in each game. In terms of yards per play, they rank 25th.

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Cowboys - 7 at Eagles

Philly may be sitting starters as they already clinched. Who knows what Dallas will do. I'd stay away from this one.

Patriots -7 at Dolphins

Brian Flores is 3-2 against the Patriots as the head coach of Miami. Just because the Dolphins are eliminated, doesn't mean they won't give an all-out effort in this one to try and derail the Pats. New England has already clinched, but has a shot at the AFC East if the Bills lose.

Dolphins 23 - Patriots 21

Best Bets

• Washington -6.5 at Giants - In the last three games, the Giants are averaging 3.4 yards per play, and 6.3 points per game, both dead last in the league. This team has quit.
• Falcons +4.5 vs. Saints - New Orleans does not have a good enough offense to be favored by four on the road.
• Bucs -8 vs. Panthers

Running Totals

• Last week: 0-3
• 2021 season total: 25-25-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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