NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 18) - Targets and Avoids

January 1, 2024

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Can it get any worse for Carolina? Another week where the Panthers could not score a touchdown, but this time they were shut out. Bryce Young looks to be a huge bust. He was 19/32 for 112 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and was sacked six times. His QBR was 12.1. David Tepper has already fired three coaches in four years and now he's allegedly throwing drinks on fans of opposing teams.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Carolina is set back years after they traded their number one pick in 2024, which turned out to be number one overall. Young has to improve or this franchise is several years away from being relevant.

Week 17 saw a few minor outright upsets with the Saints beating the Bucs, the Steelers winning on the road in Seattle, and the Packers winning on Sunday night in Minnesota, where Green Bay was somehow an underdog. Week 18 will have two games on Saturday, with the rest of the full slate on Sunday, concluding with the Bills at the Dolphins for the AFC East crown. But if Buffalo loses, and the Jaguars and Steelers win, then the Bills would miss the playoffs.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 18

• Cowboys (-13.5) at Commanders

Note: This is being written on a Monday. Lines will probably change. 

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 18

Cowboys (-13.5) at Commanders

If Dallas wins, they clinch the NFC East and get the No. 2 seed. That is enormous. The Eagles had a cakewalk of a schedule to round out the season and lock up the second seed, but they barely held on to beat the Giants on Christmas Day and then blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the hapless Cardinals. I have been a believer in Philly thinking they would figure it out, but that is clearly not happening. Regardless, Dallas is going to play their starters here and they'll have a ton of fans in attendance.

Cowboys 38 - Commanders 20

Buccaneers (-5.5) at Panthers

All week, most pundits were praising Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Then Mayfield went out and proceeded to have his worst game of the season. The stats won't indicate it because he threw for 309 yards, but they were shut out until eight minutes were left in the game. Mayfield was able to pad his stats a little trying to mount a comeback. This line seems too short though. Carolina's defense, which has played so well this year, must feel depleted considering how the offense has played. Who knows if they will even be up for this game?

Bucs 34 - Panthers 10

Lions (-4) vs. Vikings

Detroit should be playing all their starters because there is a chance they can get the No. 2 seed. It's unlikely, but there's a possibility. Minnesota's offense looked horrible Sunday night. I really don't understand how they were a favorite with rookie Jaren Hall. Who expected this guy to go out and beat a team with a legitimate quarterback in Jordan Love? The Vikings are technically not eliminated but need a lot of help to make the playoffs, and that starts with a win of their own. That's unlikely to happen.

Lions 24 - Vikings 13

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 18

Steelers (-4) at Ravens

Just because a team needs to win, doesn't mean they will. Ask yourself this, why are the Steelers in this position? It's because they weren't good enough to win other games this season and now find themselves in a must-win situation. I'm writing this on a Monday and we can presume Lamar Jackson won't play considering the Ravens locked up home-field in the AFC. But knowing how John Harbaugh operates, he'll still want to win. This is a coach who won a record-straight 24 preseason games. These two teams are also arch-rivals, so it's hard to believe Baltimore will roll over. Plus, I like Tyler Huntley. He's shown he's capable of winning games.

Can you really trust the Steelers' offense? They finally played well against Seattle, but that was a team struggling on defense, ranking 22nd in opponent yards per play.

Ravens 24 - Steelers 20

Bengals (-5) vs. Browns

This line appears to indicate Joe Flacco and most of the Browns' key players will sit for the regular season finale in Week 18. The Bengals are eliminated from postseason contention. Who knows if Ja'Marr Chase will even play?

Bengals 20 - Browns 17

Jaguars (-4.5) at Titans

Trevor Lawrence is expected back in a must-win game to clinch the AFC South. The Titans have a good defense and did a good job Sunday against the Texans, but if the Jags get to 24, that should be enough.

Jaguars 23 - Titans 19

Eagles (-5) at Giants

It's hard to beat a team, especially a divisional rival twice in three weeks. The Giants will be trying to win this game. Unless the Eagles fix their defense, they can't be trusted.

Eagles 21 - Giants 20

NFL Best Bets for Week 18

•  Texans (-1) at Colts - Houston has the better quarterback. C.J. Stroud is the best player on the field.
• Chargers (-1.5) vs. Chiefs - Early reports say Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play. This will be a throw-away game for Kansas City. The Chargers will want to win this one since no coach will be back next year.
• Lions (-4) vs. Vikings

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2023 season: 26-23-2
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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