NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 18) - Targets and Avoids

January 7, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

It's been a tough week for the sports world with Damar Hamlin suffering cardiac arrest on Monday Night Football. We wish him a full recovery.

Week 18 begins Saturday with the Chiefs at the Raiders followed by the Titans visiting the Jaguars with the AFC South on the line.

You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all. 

NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 18

Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Eagles -14 vs. Giants, 49ers -14 vs. Cardinals, Chiefs -9.5 at Raiders, Vikings -7.5 at Bears, Bills -7.5 vs. Patriots, Cowboys -7.5 at Commanders, and Bengals -7 vs. Ravens.

There's always a ton of line movement during the final week of the season. Lots of players getting rested, and teams out of the playoff picture play rookies.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.

My best bets are at the bottom of the column.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 18

49ers -14 vs. Cardinals

Arizona will be starting David Blough while benching DeAndre Hopkins. The 49ers need to win to get the No. 2 seed and get at least two home playoff games.

49res 34 - Cardinals 14

Vikings -7.5 at Bears

Chicago will be playing Nathan Peterman in place of Justin Fields, who is injured. The Vikings are expected to play most of their starters.

Vikings 28 - Bears 13

Cowboys -7.5 at Commanders

Washington is starting rookie fifth-round pick Sam Howell at quarterback. Dallas still has a chance at winning the division in case the Eagles lose.

Cowboys 27 - Commanders 17

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 18

Seahawks -6.5 vs. Rams

Teams that are out of the playoff picture against teams that need to win are 94-56-4 against the spread in the last two weeks of the season since 1990. The Rams have no reason to want to lose since they don't have a draft pick. Baker Mayfield has brought new energy to this team. The running game is averaging 132 yards per game in the last three compared to 94 on the season. Bobby Wagner leads the defense and will want to knock his former team out of the playoffs.

Rams 30 - Seahawks 24

Eagles -14 vs. Giants

As of this writing, it's unclear if the Giants will rest their starters. But the backup quarterback is Tyrod Taylor and he's more than capable of covering 14.

Eagles 26 - Giants 17

Chiefs -9.5 at Raiders

Kansas City does not cover big spreads. They barely beat the Broncos last week. Las Vegas looked great with Jarrett Stidham and they're going to give it their best shot.

Chiefs 31 - Raiders 28

Jaguars -6 vs. Titans

Tennessee has had 10 days to get ready and acclimate Joshua Dobbs to the lineup. Their defense has been top-10 in yards per play in the last three games. Jacksonville has played better as an underdog. Mike Vrabel isn't getting beat by more than a touchdown.

Titans 23 - Jaguars 20

Bills -7.5 vs. Patriots

It's hard to have a prediction on this game with all that's surrounding Buffalo.

NFL Best Bets for Week 18

• Rams +6.5 at Seahawks - An upset by the Rams makes the Lions-Packers Sunday Night Football a win-and-get-in.
• Titans +6 at Jaguars - Derrick Henry got a week off and will be fresh.
• Jets -1 at Dolphins - Robert Saleh says he's playing the starters and wants to win even though they're out of the playoff picture. Miami, who's lost five in a row, will likely be without Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater. Skylar Thompson is getting first-team reps.

Running Totals

• Last Week: 2-1
• 2022 season: 26-22-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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