NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 17) - Targets and Avoids

December 29, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Why don't more teams run the ball when going for two? I don't have stats to back it up but it seems every time a team goes for two they throw the ball. Why not run? The Raiders went for two against the Chiefs and got the conversion. Line up with a three or four-receiver set and let the QB decide if he has the numbers to run the ball or not.

Christmas Day was full of upsets. The Raiders beat the Chiefs, the Giants covered against the Eagles, and the nightcap saw the Ravens beat the 49ers handily. Other Week 16 upsets included the Patriots beating the Broncos.

Week 17 is another good slate beginning Thursday night, there's also a Saturday night game and a New Year's Eve game. But there's no Monday night game due to the College Football Playoff that's taking place.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 17

• 49ers (-13) at Commanders
• Bills (-13) vs. Patriots
• Eagles (-10.5) vs. Cardinals
• Browns (-7.5) vs. Browns
• Chiefs (-7) vs. Bengals
• Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Panthers
• Cowboys (-6) vs. Lions

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 17

Browns (-7.5) vs. Jets

How will the Jets move the ball on this ferocious Browns defense? The Jets scored 30 points Sunday against the Commanders but only one of those touchdowns was a legitimate touchdown drive, the defense set them up on the others. Trevor Siemian was 27/49 for 217 yards, a 4.4 yards per attempt. He had a QBR of 14.7. That was against a defense that ranks 31st in opponent passing yards per game. The Browns defense is number one in that category. They're also first in opponent yards per play and have allowed an average of 3.7 in their last three. Myles Garrett could have a big day.

Joe Flacco and Cleveland's offense will be able to do enough to win.

Browns 24 - Jets 13

49ers (-13) at Commanders

San Francisco should have no problem bouncing back against this putrid defense. Even if Brock Purdy is still not himself after getting knocked out with a stinger, Christian McCaffrey will run all over this defense allowing 161 yards on the ground in their last three, 30th in that span.

49ers 41 - Commanders 21

Eagles (-10.5) vs. Cardinals

Philly is 11-4 and yet the pundits are counting them out. They've looked sloppy in recent weeks including their most recent win against the Giants. But this is still a team with a very good quarterback and dynamic offense. If the defense can get right, they'll be a force and have a really good chance to beat the Niners in the NFC Championship Game. Philly has this game against a bad Arizona team before another game against the Giants to get their defense right.

Eagles 31 - Cardinals 17

Bills (-13) vs. Patriots

New England is playing spirited football as the season comes to a close. They had lost four straight games by one possession before beating the Steelers, narrowly losing to the Chiefs and then beating the Broncos on Christmas Eve. Their defense has been phenomenal ranking seventh in opponent yards per play in their last three. Buffalo though has won three in a row and will be looking to avenge their earlier season loss to New England. If the Bills can get to 24 here, they'll win.

Bills 27 - Patriots 14

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 17

Chiefs -7 vs. Bengals

How can you lay seven with the Chiefs, especially against an offense that has firepower? Kansas City's defense was fantastic on Monday against the Raiders but Patrick Mahomes and the offense that is just average.

The Bengals defense ranks last in opponent yards per play this season so if the Chiefs can't get it together this Sunday, there are major issues in KC. Maybe it's too much Taylor Swift. The Chiefs can't be backed till they show they can play cohesive football.

Chiefs 23 - Bengals 20

Jaguars -6.5 vs. Panthers

Carolina has been playing good football recently. Bryce Young has played a lot better and Chuba Hubbard has been running hard.

Jacksonville has been a mess and Trevor Lawrence is so banged up. This line is too high.

Panthers 24 - Jaguars 20

Cowboys (-6) vs. Lions

Another line that's too high. Is it a Cowboys premium because they're playing at home? I'm not fan of the Lions defense but they have an offense that can keep pace.

Cowboys 30 - Lions 27

NFL Best Bets for Week 17

• Rams (-4.5) at Giants - LA has an extra four days to prepare for this one while the Giants played on Monday and they're switching quarterbacks again.
• Eagles (-10.5) vs. Cardinals
• Saints (+2) at Bucs - The NFC South is always crazy and will yet again come down to the last week of the season.

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2023 season: 25-21-2
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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