X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets and Avoids

NFL expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 16 of the NFL season and his best bets against the spread.

Underdogs have been the theme recently, and it looked like that trend was coming to and end Sunday with eight of nine favorites winning, but then the Niners and Steelers both won has home dogs. But it wasn't over then as the Eagles shocked the Rams as 13-point dogs.

With only two weeks left in the regular season, you may think some teams have nothing to play for, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Coaches are looking to save their job and players are looking for their next contract.

With nearly all participants in survivor pools eliminated, you may not find a need to read this column. However, some survivor pools have restarted. There's still plenty of good tidbits to help you with your daily fantasy squads. Plus, my best bets against the spread are at the bottom of this column.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Nuggets from Week 15

  • Cody Kessler had more rushing yards (68) than passing yards (57)
  • Patriots have lost back-to-back games for the first time since December
  • Chargers beat the Chiefs for the first time since Dec. 29, 2013
  • 32-year-old Josh Johnson won his first game as an NFL starter

 

Survivor League Strategy

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved. Teams italicized are my best bets.

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

Teams favored by more than seven in Week 16 per The Action Network app (home team in caps):

  • RAMS -13.5 vs. Cardinals
  • PATRIOTS -13 vs. Bills
  • TITANS -10 vs. Redskins
  • COLTS -9.5 vs. Giants
  • BROWNS -9 vs. Bengals
  • COWBOYS -7 vs. Bucs

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 16

In order of my favorite selections:

PATRIOTS -13 vs. Bills

The sky is falling in New England once again. After the Pats lost two in a row in Weeks 2 and 3, people were writing them off. Now, it's happening again. Those four losses all came on the road. New England is simply a different team at home than on the road. At home, they are +13.8, but on the road, are -2.4. Buffalo has looked good recently behind their phenomenal defense and rookie quarterback/running back Josh Allen. But this is a rookie going into Foxboro against a desperate Patriots team.

Patriots 31 - Bills 12

 

DOLPHINS -4 vs. Jaguars

Another team that is vastly different at home than on the road is Miami. They are 1-6 on the road but 6-1 at home. Jacksonville stinks. Their quarterback had more rushing yards than passing yards Sunday. Their defense is good, but once they get behind, that's it. They've averaged nine points a game in their last three. That is putrid. Even Arizona, next on the list, has averaged 12. Miami is averaging 24 their last three.

 

Bears -4 @ 49ERS

The Niners had no business winning the last two games against the Broncos and Seahawks. They're in for a real test when they face the Bears ferocious defense. I think Chicago is too much for Nick Mullens to handle.

Bears 23 - 49ers 14

 

Rams -13.5 @ CARDINALS

A 14-point road favorite is not something you see often. Arizona's defense isn't all that bad. They are seventh in team sacks, and when you pressure Jared Goff, he gets extremely flustered. The Rams will win, but not cover.

Rams 34 - Cardinals 21

 

BROWNS -9 vs. Bengals

Cleveland is rolling. Baker Mayfield should have a field day picking apart the 29th ranked team in opponent yards per play. Cincy also gives up the most points per game. Mayfield has been a different quarterback since Freddie Kitchens took over as offensive coordinator. Cleveland also has a good defense and will smother Jeff Driskel.

Browns 34 - Bengals 14

 

COWBOYS -7 vs. Bucs

If Dallas doesn't dominate a Bucs team that gives away the ball more than any other team in the league, there's something wrong with them. The defense should dominate in this one.

Cowboys 30 - Bucs 14

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Redskins +10 @ TITANS

I don't think Tennessee deserves to be a 10-point favorite against any team. Their defense is very good, but their offense ranks 27th in scoring with 19.1 points per game. The team that's right behind them with 18.9 – the Washington Redskins. However, through their last three games, Washington is averaging 15 while Tennessee is averaging 24.

I can't forget three weeks ago when the Titans were 10-point favorites against the Jets and had to come from behind and win. This is one too many points.

Titans 23 - Redskins 14

 

Giants +9 @ COLTS

I am always terrified of going against Eli Manning when he's this big of an underdog. When you count him out, he'll surprise you. The Colts need to win this one, but also may be looking ahead to next week's clash with the Titans which could very well be a de facto playoff game.

 

The Rest 

Ravens +4.5 @ CHARGERS - I keep waiting for the Chargers to have one of their games where they make stupid turnovers, miss some kicks. They're off their biggest win of the season against Kansas City and still don't control their own destiny. Baltimore needs to win this one or they will be eliminated if both Tennessee and Indy win. Lamar Jackson brings another dimension the Chargers haven't seen. Plus, Baltimore's defense is top-five.

JETS pick vs. Packers - This line opened at Packers -3.5 and is now pick. Rumors are swirling that Aaron Rodgers may not play as Green Bay's season is over. Even if he does, I like the Jets. I said it last week; the Jets want to win even though their season is over. Sam Darnold wants nothing to do with tanking. He is a talented young quarterback that will bring his all to this game while Rodgers may have no motivation.

LIONS +5.5 vs. Vikings - If Minnesota decides to run the ball, they should win. If they let Kirk Cousins try to win the game, they're in trouble. I think 5.5 is too much for a divisional road game.

EAGLES -2.5 vs. Texans - I have no idea what to make of this game. I think Houston is grossly overrated. Is Philly back with Nick Foles at the helm? I'll take the home team, but I'd avoid this one.

Falcons -3.5 @ PANTHERS -  This line swung five points since Cam Newton was declared out. I'll take Atlanta against a depleted offense.

SAINTS -5.5 vs. Steelers - New Orleans's offense has been awful the past three weeks, but they're 2-1 in those thanks to their defense. The fact that they're winning with their defense shows how versatile of a team they are. If the Saints win, they lock up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They're +14 at home – best in the NFL – while the Steelers are +1.6 on the road. Ben Roethlisberger struggles on the road as well.

SEAHAWKS +2.5 vs. Chiefs - Seattle is 16-2 at home in prime-time games under Pete Caroll. Five times they were underdogs. In those games, they are 4-1 against the spread with all four of those being outright wins.

Broncos -2.5 @ RAIDERS - What an awful game on Christmas Eve. Who cares about this one! But I like Denver.

 

My Running Season Total

  • This week: Patriots -13, Dolphins -4, Ravens +4.5
  • Last week: 2-2
  • Best bet ATS record: 22-23-1

 

Good luck RotoBallers, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 17.

More Weekly Lineup Prep




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double