NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 16) - Targets and Avoids

December 21, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Fans want to outlaw the tush push because some say it's impossible to stop, but is it? The Eagles cannot be stopped on it, I'll give you that. The only time they were stopped was when Jalen Hurts fumbled at the goal line in Washington earlier this year. It's easy though when you have a quarterback who is 6'1'' and weighs 220 lbs. Then you see other teams like the Minnesota Vikings fail to pick up inches on back-to-back quarterback sneaks. Defenses will get smarter and adapt to this. But unless a team has a big and strong quarterback like the Eagles, it won't work every single time. Also, let teams sabotage themselves like Minnesota did Saturday instead of just running the ball like most teams normally would do.

Nearly all favorites won straight up in Week 15 except for the Titans, Packers, Falcons, and Eagles. Week 16 is when you get to the time of year where you hear people say they have nothing to play for and they need to win this game. Two notes on those awful takes. Players and coaches want to win, organizations sometimes don't. But you can't bench your stars in the NFL like you can in the NBA. Players and coaches are looking for a new contract and will want to do well. Secondly, when a team has to win, why are they in that situation in the first place? It's because they didn't win enough games and now need to win for the playoffs. But if a team was better, they wouldn't need to win.

Christmas falls out on a Monday this year and the NFL has games spread throughout the weekend. We have the usual Thursday night game, two on Saturday, a full slate on Sunday with a Christmas Eve game, and then a triple-header on Christmas Day.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 16

• Bills (-12) at Chargers
• Eagles (-12) vs. Giants
• Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders
• Broncos (-6.5) vs. Patriots

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 16

Bills (-12) at Chargers

Buffalo was the ultimate buy-low team after they lost to the Eagles in overtime and then went on their bye week. They were being counted out of the playoffs. I even got them at +500 to make the playoffs. They are the hottest team in football right now. They beat the Chiefs, dominated the Cowboys, and now face the Chargers, who just gave up 63 points and fired their coach. They end the season with a game at home against the Patriots and then in Miami for the season finale.

The Bills play a lot better indoors because they are a speed team. Their offense will light up the Chargers' atrocious defense. The Chargers are 27th in opponent yards per play and have given up 261 passing yards per game on the year. Josh Allen will finally connect with Stefon Diggs, who has done virtually nothing in their last two games. And their defense has come alive.

The Chargers will be sticking with quarterback Easton Stick, who has really had no chance to succeed. This season has turned into a disaster for the Chargers and they aren't winning again.

The Bills fans will travel well for this game and they'll have all day to get rowdy for this Saturday night game. This final stretch for Buffalo reminds me of the 2020 season where they ended the regular season winning six straight and averaging 38 points per game.

Bills 38 - Chargers 13

Eagles (-12) vs. Giants

This is the get-right game for Philly. After three straight losses, they get an inferior opponent at home on Christmas Day. The Eagles just had their toughest stretch of the season and now close with the Giants twice sandwiched with the Cardinals. They'll be just fine as the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and can host two games.

The biggest story with the Giants this week is Tommy Devito and the pizza store.

DeVito and his agent have become a distraction and they're in for a tough spot Monday.

Eagles 34 - Giants 14

Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders

As I said last week, Kansas City is not the team we're used to seeing. If the Patriots had a viable quarterback, they would have kept the game against the Chiefs a lot closer. New England's defense did all they could to make it close. Patrick Mahomes and the offense are still top-five but it seems like something is missing. Could it be Kadarius Toney, who keeps messing up?

The good news is they have three winnable games to end the regular season before the playoffs begin. Mahomes is 10-1 in his career against the Raiders. Las Vegas has been playing good football, but Kansas City is a major step up.

Chiefs 30 - Raiders 17

Broncos (-6.5) vs. Patriots

If Denver can get to 20 points here, they should have no problem winning. New England's defense is stout but it's so hard to hold any team to less than 20 points and win. The offense has shown signs of life by actually scoring but they still rank 25th in yards per play in their last three. In that same span, they rank 29th in points per game, 13.3 points per game. Could we see another quarterback this week?

Broncos 23 - Patriots 13

Packers -5 at Panthers

If Green Bay can get to 20 in this game, they should easily win. Carolina has not scored a touchdown in two weeks. They've scored six since the start of November. How can you back a team that can't score?

Jordan Love should have plenty of time to throw against what's been an above average defense keeping Carolina in a lot of games.

Packers 24 - Panthers 13

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 16

Jets -3 vs. Commanders

This is the ultimate stay-away game. The Jets should never be a favorite. They have a good defense but horrible offense. The Commanders have the exact opposite, good offense but horrible defense.

I can't even give a pick out because I have no clue.

Bears -4 vs. Cardinals

All the pundits are on Chicago this week. The Bears have been playing good football and nearly won their fourth in last five games. But their offense has done virtually nothing, ranking 30th in yards per play in their last three with 4.4. You'd think this line would be six or so considering Arizona's defense has been getting shredded, they're second-to-last in opponent yards per play. Something is up with this game.

Cardinals 24 - Bears 20

NFL Best Bets for Week 16

• Rams (-4) vs. Saints - Los Angeles is fully healthy and their offense is clicking averaging the third-most yards per play in their last three.
• Eagles (-12) vs. Giants
• Bills (-12) at Chargers

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2023 season: 24-19-2
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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