NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 15) - Targets and Avoids

December 15, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

It's wide open with four games left in the regular season. Five teams in the AFC and the NFC are within one game of the top seed. Only three teams in the AFC have been eliminated from playoff contention, one team in the NFC, but we can go ahead and cross off the Giants and Bears. This will be a mad dash to the finish. So there are 26 teams still alive. What a league.

Favorites dominated in Week 14. Two underdogs won outright, Falcons and Rams.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 15

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Cardinals -13.5 at Lions, Bills -10.5 vs. Panthers, Cowboys -10.5 at Giants, Bucs -10.5 vs. Saints, Dolphins -8.5 vs. Jets, 49ers -8.5 vs. Falcons.

No more byes beginning this week. It's a full slate of football.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 15

Bills -10.5 vs. Panthers

Buffalo has lost three of their last four and is off a gut-wrenching loss in overtime to Tampa. Luckily for them, they return to Buffalo to take on the reeling Panthers. They've lose three in a row and Cam Newton has looked awful. Buffalo beats up on bad teams and they're going to play with urgency in this one.

Bills 44 - Panthers 16

Cardinals -13.5 at Lions

Short turnaround for Arizona having to go east for an early game after a loss on Monday Night Football. But Detroit should pose no threat.

Cardinals 34 - Lions 17

Bucs -10.5 vs. Saints

Tom Brady and Tampa will want their revenge after New Orleans beat them earlier in the season. The Saints' offense is bad ranking 24th in yards per play in the last three games. Taysom Hill will have to throw the ball because the Tampa rush defense ranks third in the league.

Bucs 31 - Saints 16

Dolphins -8.5 vs. Jets

The Jets are so terrible to watch. They're averaging 4.4 yards per play in their last three, 28th in the league. In that same time span, they've averaged 16 points per game. Zach Wilson is completing 56 percent of passes, just awful numbers. Miami's defense has been dominant, ranking third in opponent yards per play in the last three games. They've won their last five and are are off a bye.

It's not like the Jets' defense can stop anyone. Robert Saleh was hired because of his great job with the defense in San Francisco, but so far, the defensive unit can't stop anyone.

Dolphins 26 - Jets 19

Cowboys -10.5 at Giants

Despite the Cowboys' offense being banged up, Dak Prescott not himself, their defensive front should dominate Mike Glennon.

Cowboys 24 - Giants 13

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

49ers -8.5 vs. Falcons

This is a huge game for both these teams competing for a wild card berth. It seems when the Niners are a favorite they underwhelm, but as a dog they overperform. Same feeling I get with this game. Can San Fran even put up enough points to cover this spread?

Atlanta is tough to back with Matt Ryan, but again this is a lot of points. This game will come down to third downs. In the last three games, Atlanta ranks fifth converting nearly 50 percent while the Niners' defense is fifth.

49ers 23 - Falcons 21

Rams -5 vs. Seahawks 

The Rams are off a huge win Monday night in Arizona, but now are in COVID protocols with Odell Beckham Jr. among one of the players testing positive.

Seattle has won two in a row and are now back in the playoff picture. But they need this one here. Seattle's offense is clicking lately, averaging 6.2 yards per play the last three games, which ranks tied for third.

Seahawks 26 - Vikings 20

Browns -3.5 vs. Raiders

Another COVID outbreak, this time in Cleveland's organization.

Best Bets

• Packers -4.5 at Ravens - No Lamar Jackson for Baltimore. Their secondary is all banged up. Aaron Rodgers should dominate.
• Texans +3.5 at Jaguars - Jacksonville should not be favored by more than three against anyone. There's major issues going on in that locker room with Urban Meyer. Plus that offense has scored 21 points in their last three games.
• Bills -10.5 vs. Panthers

Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2021 season total: 21-20-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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