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Detroit's defense was completely exposed by Jordan Love and the Packers on Thanksgiving day. Green Bay scored the most points they have all season, 29. Love threw for 268 yards and three touchdown passes. The Lions defense has been getting shredded, though. In the last three games, they've given up 41, 26, and 29 points, the second-most in the league. In that span, they're bottom half in both opponent passing and rushing yards per game. Their schedule is not daunting the rest of the way, at Saints, at Bears, vs. Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, and vs. Vikings. They may go 11-6 and be a good team to bet against in the playoffs.
Favorites had a great Thanksgiving weekend, going 12-4 against the spread. The Vikings and Patriots were the only teams to go down and knock entrants out. It's getting slim pickings in survivor and you may be forced to take an underdog eventually.
There are several teams on bye this week. Matchups are not that strong but there are some very interesting games. And after a week of favorites, could underdogs wreak havoc?
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NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 13
- Dolphins (-9.5) at Commanders
- Cowboys (-8.5) vs. Seahawks
- Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Bengals
- Chiefs (-6) at Packers
- Chargers (-6) at Patriots
Teams on bye: Bears, Bills, Giants, Raiders, Ravens, Vikings
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 13
Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Bengals
Jacksonville should cruise. They are off a hard-fought win in Houston but they should have no trouble with Jake Browning and the Bengals offense. Browning was not good against Pittsburgh although the stats will say otherwise. He had a very good yards per attempt with 8.7. But his two longest pass plays were on a tipped ball to Ja'Marr Chase and a screen pass to Joe Mixon.
The Bengals' defense only allowed 16 to the Steelers but did give up 278 passing yards and 153 rushing yards. They are the worst defense in terms of yards per play. Trevor Lawrence should have an easy time slicing up this defense.
Jaguars 31 - Bengals 17
Dolphins (-9.5) at Commanders
In terms of survivor, Miami is the second-best option this week. They have so much more firepower than Washington and their defense is also a lot better. They have given up the third-fewest yards per play in the last three games. And one of those games was against Kansas City.
I do worry about the new coach theory after Washington fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. The defense can't play much worse after the Cowboys scored 45 points on Thanksgiving. Washington has a very good chance to cover the spread. As I always say, they play better when you don't expect and vice versa.
Dolphins 24 - Commanders 17
Chiefs (-6) at Packers
Kansas City looked like they were in a slump after going down 14-0 to the Raiders but they stormed back and won 31-17. Patrick Mahomes and the offense flipped a switch and just dominated. At one point, they scored touchdowns on four of five possessions. If KC can win on Sunday night in Lambeau and then beat the Bills the following week, they may very well win out. Their last four games are in New England, home to the Raiders and Bengals, and then end the season in LA against the Chargers.
Green Bay has their sights on a playoff spot also after they took it to the Lions on Thanksgiving. Jordan Love looked fantastic, going 22/32 for 268 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. The offense looks back to full strength for maybe the first time all season. This will be a much tougher test for Love against the Chiefs' defense. They'll keep it close for a while, though.
Chiefs 23 - Packers 20
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 13
Cowboys (-8.5) vs. Seahawks
Dallas beats up on bad teams and continues to do so.
But does Seattle constitute as a bad team? I would say based on the record, 6-5, and being 14th in both yards per play and opponent yards per play, they're about average. The Seahawks do have a lot of weapons but Geno Smith has had a QBR of less than 50 in three of the last four, including two games below 15. Dallas will get their points but if Smith has another bad game, it could be a long night.
Cowboys 31 - Seahawks 23
Chargers (-6) at Patriots
There is no way the Chargers should be a six-point favorite over anyone in this league. Their defense just gave up 197 rushing yards to the Ravens but somehow held them to 20 points. It should have been a ton more. The Chargers' "electric" offense, as some pundits say, has scored 30 points total in their last two games. Justin Herbert is a great talent but for some reason, he can't get it together with his receivers.
It appears their season is over. Brandon Staley won't be back next year.
The Patriots are in a similar situation. Their season is over. Their offense is a mess but they can play defense. They rank eighth in opponent yards per play and have given up 13.3 points per game in their last three, the fourth-best in the league in that span.
It's getting very cold in the Northeast and the warm-weathered Chargers will be in for a cold and early 1 PM start.
Patriots 20 - Chargers 17
Lions (-4) at Saints
I already bashed the Lions' pass defense at the top of this column. Some would say Derek Carr has not played so great but his stats say otherwise. He just threw for 304 yards against the Falcons with one costly pick. He's completing 65 percent of his passes and 6.8 yards per attempt. That's pretty average. But against this Lions secondary and the receivers he has, they can do some damage.
Saints 30 - Lions 26
Steelers (-5.5) vs. Cardinals
Pittsburgh is the hardest team to figure out. How in the world are they 7-4 with an offense that averages 16.5 points per game, 28th in the league, and 25th in yards per play? Their defense is top-five in the league and that's what's been carrying them. This line seems a little sneaky low, though. Arizona just got destroyed by the Rams. They're a warm-weathered team and have to go to Pittsburgh in December. Kyler Murray will be the best player on offense for both teams and he can carry them to an upset.
Cardinals 21 - Steelers 17
Bucs (-5.5) vs. Panthers
The big question here is how will the fired coach theory fare? Carolina of course just fired Frank Reich. They are going nowhere this season but will the team rally like the Raiders did when Josh McDaniels was fired? It's been easy to beat up on Carolina this week.
The Panthers players are reading this. If they can get up for any game, it has to be this one.
Panthers 24 - Bucs 23
NFL Best Bets for Week 13
- Eagles (+2.5) vs. 49ers - Philly should not be underdogs at home. If I lose, so be it.
- Saints (+4) vs. Lions
- Patriots (+6) vs. Chargers
2023 Season Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2023 season: 20-15-1
- 2022 season: 28-23-3
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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