NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Survivor League Targets and Avoids

November 28, 2021

Gambling expert Seth I. Finkelstein gives you his top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season and your 2021 survivor leagues.

Thanksgiving Week is arguably the greatest sports week of the year. We have NFL, college football rivalry week, college basketball games on all day, and NHL and NBA but who really cares about the latter two this early on. But what I continually here this time of year, is get the Lions off Thanksgiving Day. Those people are dead wrong. Detroit has been a staple on Thursday. It's a tradition to have them. Yes, they are usually awful, but maybe change the opponents. Why are the Bears on when they were on two years ago and in 2018. Let teams that usually don't get to play on Thanksgiving play. Teams like the Eagles, Cardinals, or even the Ravens. They're all teams that have played or will play in Detroit already. I like the Raiders on Thanksgiving because they're a team that doesn't usually get to play on the holiday. And lastly, New Orleans has been on so much in recent years. Time to get them out and change it.

Week 11 was another bloodbath. The Titans, Bills, Seahawks, all went down. The Browns, Bucs, Chargers, and Niners all won. Survivor pools have about 10 percent of remaining entrants left. This is one of the hardest weeks as there's just one team who's favored by more than a touchdown.

For those who are not familiar, all season long I'll be bringing you weekly columns on teams to target and avoid each week. Strategy is a major part of winning this pool and this article will help you through the season so let's start with that. 

Teams favored by 7+ in Week 12

Lines are consensus from The Action Network; Cowboys -7 vs. Raiders

Teams on bye this week; Cardinals, Chiefs

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

With gambling now legal for some of you, I'm going to be giving out my three top plays against the spread. They'll be at the bottom. I'll also be giving my predicted score for games written about.

Top Survivor Picks for Week 12

Cowboys -7 vs. Raiders

The big storyline will be that Dallas is without their two wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. But it won't matter because the Cowboys will dominate with the run. They rank fifth in rushing yards per game while the Raiders rank 28th against the run, and 25th in opponent rush yards per attempt. Since Henry Ruggs was involved in the deadly car crash, the Raiders have lost three in a row and it's only going to get worse.

The good thing about taking Dallas; you won't have to sweat out Sunday one way or another.

Cowboys 31 - Giants 17

Eagles -4 @ Giants

Philly is going to make the playoffs. In their last six games, they get the Giants and Washington twice, the Jets, and then end in Dallas where the Cowboys could be resting starters. It's really hard to prepare for this Philly team. They've been running the ball so well in their last three games; 211 yards on the ground per game which is second only to the Colts. The Giants are a below average rush defense. Plus New York's offense is 25th in yards per play in their last three. Their offensive and defense lines, as evident on Monday night, are just awful.

Eagles 26 - Giants 17

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Patriots -6.5 vs. Titans

I correctly predicted Houston beating Tennessee last week as they were due for a major letdown. But this line is just way too high. I understand New England is rolling along, their defense is playing great, they're running the ball well, and Mac Jones is completing 70.2% of passes.

Mike Vrabel has historically played Bill Belichick really tough and beaten them several times including in Tom Brady's last game as a Patriot. There's no way this game will be decided by more than a touchdown either way. Tennessee's defense is going to come to play. Both defenses rank in the top five in opponent yards per play in their last three.

Titans 23 - Patriots 20

Panthers -2 at Dolphins

Miami has done the same thing year after year after year. They get off to a terrible start, and then reel off several wins, still miss the playoffs, all while hurting their draft position. Tua Tagovailoa is playing a lot better as is Miami's defense who's given up 4.9 yards per play in their last three as opposed to a season average of 5.7.

Cam Newton has given the Panthers offense a spark, but he's still a shell of himself.

Dolphins 24 - Panthers 20 

Best Bets

• Titans+6.5 at Patriots
• Eagles -4 at Giants
• Washington pick vs. Seahawks - The Seattle offense is dead. Russell Wilson looked so so bad Sunday against Arizona. Their defense could not stop the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense allowing 5.2 yards per play. Arizona was 7-14 on third down and they had 40 minutes in time of possession.

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2021 season total: 16-16-1
• 2020 season total: 24-27
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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