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Thunder Dan Palyo provides his top NFL Survivor League picks and expert strategy to win your knockout pool. Review the 2025 NFL schedule with his top grid picks for specific weeks of the season to dominate your NFL Survivor pool.
The start of the 2025 NFL regular season is less than a month away, and the fervor that football enthusiasts are feeling for the upcoming season is growing by the day.
At RotoBaller, we continue to develop our tools and content to help you win your fantasy football leagues of all formats. One way to compete with other football fans this season is by participating in an NFL survivor pool. These pools continue to grow in popularity and can be a lot of fun.
Participants have to choose one NFL team to win every week, but can not use any team more than once in the season. If the team you pick loses, you are eliminated, and the last team(s) standing late in the season win the prize, whether it's a cash prize or even just bragging rights. Let us at RotoBaller help you win your survivor leagues this season!
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How to Win a Survivor Pool
Let's start with some quick tips and strategies to employ for survivor pools.
Always Be Planning: Use our Survivor Picks Tool to look ahead, don't be shortsighted, and look at only one week at a time.
Avoid the Chalk: Usually, the team that is most heavily favored ends up being the most popular pick. If you can avoid using that team each week, a big upset of a favorite could eliminate half the pool and leave you in good standing.
Wait on Good Teams: Whenever possible, save some of the best teams until late in the season. Doing so will leave you with more reliable options in the late weeks while other players have to take riskier teams.
Don't Pick Against the Same Bad Team Every Week: We can certainly target bad teams more than once, but going after the same team every week could be a recipe for disaster. Even the worst NFL teams usually win three or four games a season.
Beware of Injuries: Make sure you are monitoring the latest NFL injury news throughout the week. An injury to a key player on offense or defense could be enough to make you want to switch your pick if you think it could affect the outcome of the game that week.
Target Home Teams: While matchups matter the most, home teams often win at a higher rate. Don't force a home team that is a riskier option than a very good team on the road, but you can view the home field advantage as a tie-breaker between two teams that you are considering.
Avoid Divisional Matchups When Possible: Divisional matchups can result in upsets quite often, as teams have more familiarity with their divisional opponents than the rest of the league. When you factor in a possible rivalry, these games can get dicey.
Avoid Teams On A Short Week: A team that has to turn around and play on Thursday on only three days' rest is hard to trust, especially if they are playing on the road or facing a team that has had more days to rest.
Check out this Survivor League Strategy Guide for more tips on winning your survivor leagues.
NFC Team Weekly Win Probabilities and Vegas Odds
Our NFL Survivor Grid has every team from both conferences in one place, but for the sake of this article, I sorted the teams by conference.
AFC Team Weekly Win Probabilities and Vegas Odds
One thing to remember here is that our RotoBaller win projections and the Vegas win percentages will change on a week-to-week basis as we get more information about the quality of each team. So this chart could look a lot different by, say, Week 3 or Week 4 if certain teams produce results that weren't anticipated or suffer major injuries on either side of the ball.
The Bills and Ravens face off in Week 1, but then both teams will likely be favored in every game of the season after that. The Browns and Titans will be teams we pick against quite often, as they are projected to lose just about every week.
There are 32 teams in the league, and we have to use 18 (assuming that your contest runs until the final week), so we want to use the best teams at some point, but you also have to be willing to take some risks on lesser teams that are in very favorable matchups.
Week 1: Denver Broncos (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Broncos and Commanders both stand out here as big home favorites, and I would like to save the Eagles for later in the season. Denver's defense should pose a major challenge to Titans' rookie quarterback Cam Ward, and I expect their offense to continue to improve this year, too.
Week 2: Arizona Cardinals (vs. Carolina Panthers)
While the Panthers should be better this year, they still project as one of the weakest teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals could be set to take a step forward and become a playoff contender with an improved defense and another year of experience for Kyler Murray and his offensive weapons. Arizona has our second-best projected win probability in Week 2 and the benefit of being at home.
Week 3: Seattle Seahawks (vs. New Orleans Saints)
Seattle has our top win probability in Week 3, while also being the fourth-biggest Vegas favorite at home against the Saints. I expect New Orleans to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, and it likely won't be the last time we pick on them.
Week 4: Detroit Lions (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Other teams that pop in Week 4 are the Bills (against the Saints) and the Texans (against the Titans), but I like the idea of using the Lions at home in a game they should dominate against Cleveland, who could easily be the worst team in the AFC.
Week 5: Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
We have our first set of byes in Week 5, and while I would like to save the Bills for later in the season, I am going to burn them here, as only three teams have win projections over 60% in Week 5, and I already used Arizona. I tend to avoid divisional matchups, but Buffalo is at home, and I still view them as one of the best teams in the league, so I would expect them to handle their business, even if we expect the Patriots to be better this year.
Week 6: Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Another divisional matchup here and a rivalry game, I am breaking my own rules already. But Week 6 provides a challenge with some of our better teams having tougher matchups. The Steelers' 68% win projection is the best on the board, and I am okay with picking on the Browns in multiple weeks, especially with them being on the road in Pittsburgh.
Week 7: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Here we go again, another divisional matchup, but I couldn't get away from this pick as I want to use the Chiefs at some point in the season, and their weakest opponent on the schedule is likely the rebuilding Raiders.
Week 8: New England Patriots (vs. Cleveland Browns)
The Patriots are probably going to be the worst team that I trust to win a game this year. They should be a pretty solid favorite at home against Cleveland, and as long as they take a step forward from last season, I think they'll be a tier above the worst teams in the league, just probably not ready to hang with the elite teams yet.
Week 9: Los Angeles Rams (vs. New Orleans Saints)
If Matthew Stafford is healthy, I expect the Rams to be a playoff team and maybe even a dark horse to make the Super Bowl out of the NFC. Again, I view the Saints are most likely the worst team in the conference, and I'm going to target them fairly often when I can.
Week 10: Chicago Bears (vs. New York Giants)
We will have to see what the Bears look like by this time of the season, but the expectation is that they'll be improved this year, while the Giants are likely to still struggle. If the Giants play better (or the Bears play worse) than expectations by midseason, then this pick looks a lot dicier.
Week 11: Atlanta Falcons (vs. Carolina Panthers)
Atlanta is another team that looks good on paper now, but I reserve the right to pivot off this pick if they stumble in the first half of the season. I think they'll be ahead of the Panthers in their development and that they'd be in a position to defeat their divisional opponent at home, but we will have to see how the season plays out for both teams.
Week 14: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. New Orleans Saints)
I love the Bucs this season, and I think they'll win their division again and likely sweep the Saints. I do want them at home against New Orleans, though. I am sticking to my "avoid road teams" rule, especially within the division.
Week 15: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
The Birds are my pick in Week 15. If things go as expected, they should be in peak form at this point in the year and hosting a Raiders team that isn't expected to do much. I want to use Philly before the last two weeks, just in case they clinch the top seed very early (it's quite possible).
Week 16: Houston Texans (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Truth be told, I am very iffy on Houston this year, but I do think they belong in the top half of the league in terms of rankings, and so I am okay using them here at home against Las Vegas. I wish I had a better team here, but I have burned Philly, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, and Buffalo already.
Week 17: Washington Commanders (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
We finish out with two divisional matchups, but I think these could end up being lopsided affairs if their seasons play out as anticipated. The Commanders should be very good, but not good enough to have locked up seeding by Week 17, and will likely be in a must-win situation for the playoffs. I also think Dallas could struggle badly this year and fade down the stretch, as they did last season.
Week 18: Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Cleveland Browns)
Let's wrap it up with the Battle of Ohio. The Bengals are probably going to be a wild-card team that has to win in the final week to secure their spot. So as long as this game means something for Cincy, I would expect them to beat up the Brownies at home.
Click here to follow our survivor pool picks each week this season! Every week, our experts will rank their favorite plays and give you their top picks to use in your survivor pools.
Use our Survivor Grid Tool to plan out your picks and keep an eye on upcoming matchups! Remember that projections will change from week to week. Injuries are going to happen, and certain teams will play above or below their preseason expectations.
I hope this article helped you become more familiar with our Survivor Pools content and tools. We'll be here all season adjusting our projections and rankings to give you the upper hand in your contests! Good luck this season!
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