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Nick's 2024-25 NFL playoffs bracket predictions, picks for the entire 2024-25 NFL postseason culminates in an all-inclusive look at Super Bowl LIX. Analyzing recent and seasonal trends, Nick lays out how he believes the big game will go while highlighting key player props along the way.
The conference championship round saw a lopsided affair go Philadelphia's way in the NFC while the Chiefs emerged from another hard-fought battle with Buffalo. We've had fun trying to predict the action every step of the way and there's no way we're stopping now with the big one ahead of us. That's right, it's time for Super Bowl LIX!
During the offseason, there's plenty of time to weigh what could've been different if the other 30 teams did this or that. We are here to focus on the here and now between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
First, we'll look back at their Super Bowl matchup two seasons ago and try to provide some backdrop for this year's contest. But football is notorious for small sample sizes and while many familiar names return, those rosters are quite different this time around! Then, we'll predict the game itself, how each team might succeed, and explore player props that align with the analysis.
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Super Bowl LIX Prediction
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) vs. No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
It’s the showdown that much of America did not want to see but there’s no denying the Super Bowl LVII rematch between Philly and K.C. can bring fireworks. That game saw the Eagles enter halftime with a 24-14 lead and a 27-21 advantage heading into the fourth. But the Chiefs would drive down and take a 28-27 edge on a Kadarius Toney touchdown before forcing a three-and-out that led to a massive 65-yard Toney punt return.
Now down eight with roughly nine minutes left in the game, Jalen Hurts led a 75-yard drive that leaned on a 45-yard toss to DeVonta Smith down the left side to set up a two-yard Hurts TD. The Tush Push converted a two-point conversion to knot things at 35 points.
But in classic Chiefs fashion, they ate up the clock on a grinding drive for a go-ahead 27-yard field goal with just eight seconds left. Philly couldn’t pull off the miracle as the Chiefs took it home.
That said, the game was not without controversy. Many are still hung up on a defensive holding call on defensive back James Bradberry that, if not called, would’ve led to the field goal coming with close to two minutes remaining. But it is an imperfect game we play, know, and love. Don’t leave room for the refs to decide it!
Onto this year’s contest, which sees the Eagles storming into the Super Bowl with loads of momentum on the heels of a 55-23 drubbing of Washington. Meanwhile, the Chiefs eked by the Bills, though everyone agrees the AFC provided a more difficult path. Let’s look at how the 2024-25 versions of these squads stack up!
We’ll first turn to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which helps us by adjusting every play for the situation, quality of the opponent, and more. The Eagles had the best team defense DVOA in the NFL but the Chiefs were no slouch in 11th place. But Philly stood out by having not only the top rushing DVOA but also the second-best passing DVOA.
In other words, there are no obvious weaknesses. This is not a strong defense anchored by one particular unit. Compare this to the 2022-23 season, when the Eagles defense held a third-best DVOA mark at -13.3 percent thanks to far and away the best passing metric but the 19th-best rushing rank.
If you abide by “defense wins championships” then you’ll enjoy these stats. They held opponents to the second-lowest passing success rate (39.8 percent) in the league, with the worst explosive pass rate (6.2 percent). Compare that with K.C. allowing a 45.3 percent passing success rate (ranked 15th) and 8 percent explosive pass rate, 21st in the NFL.
Eagles defense 2024 analytics:
- EPA: 2nd
- DVOA: 1st
- Scoring defense: 1st
- Explosive plays defense: 1st
- Takeaways: 2ndThey are the youngest defense in the league.#Eagles pic.twitter.com/Pmg0Osqkd5
— Thomas R. Petersen (@thomasrp93) January 15, 2025
Both defend the run well, though most opponents are forced to abandon it by midgame due to the scores getting tilted. This shouldn’t change much for scoping how Philly will be attacked by the Chiefs, whose 42 percent rush rate ranked 20th in the NFL. But the 2024-25 Chiefs haven’t been tested by a prolific rushing attack like Philadelphia’s yet.
The Eagles’ 56 percent rush rate was tops in the NFL thanks to Saquon Barkley’s historic year and Jalen Hurts remaining a threat to take off, with the Tush Push always in their back pocket. While Barkley’s elite form has continued through the postseason, given he averaged eight yards a carry with three touchdowns against Washington, the eyes are on Hurts’ knee.
He injured it in the Divisional Round against the Rams and started the Washington game with a brace before ditching it before the opening whistle. That game didn’t require him to cape up with unnecessary risks and we did not see him break downfield.
He would gain just 16 yards on 10 carries, but still scored three times. He also completed 20-of-28 pass attempts for 246 yards and a score to A.J. Brown, so the throwing mechanics seemed unhindered. Hurts had 15 carries for 70 yards and three TDs in Super Bowl LVII but that team had Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell, not Barkley. Still, Hurts needs to have the burst to punish any mistakes.
Jalen Hurts finishes 20-for-28 for 246 yards and four total touchdowns.
With the stakes at their highest, dealing with a knee injury, he delivers a 94th percentile game based on EPA per pass play.
— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) January 26, 2025
Said punishment needs to occur because standing on the other side is Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, who can always be relied on to cook a wicked game plan up. Reid has only lost three games when given 13 or more days of rest to prepare when either Patrick Mahomes or Donovan McNabb was his QB, per Evan Abrams of Action Network.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is undoubtedly concocting a way to limit the run as well, but that may be his most difficult test yet. But historically, a coaching rematch favors the initial victor. Even Bill Belichick couldn’t conquer his Tom Coughlin demons. Kyle Shanahan has fallen to Reid twice. Can Nick Sirianni break the curse?
Of course, this isn’t a game played on paper. The Eagles aren’t new to the spotlight but there’s a clear gulf in experience between them, or anyone, and the Chiefs. Their last Super Bowl matchup saw K.C. win the turnover battle and commit only three penalties to Philly’s six. And still, the Eagles nearly overcame that and will enter Round 2 with a stronger ground game.
But the Chiefs won with Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore catching touchdowns. It was Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and then a rotation of role players (being generous). Now, they have DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and Xavier Worthy to flesh out an operational aerial assault unit. They may take a couple of drives to probe for weaknesses but they can easily bang in another shootout.
The truly boring answer here is to say whoever avoids "the big mistake" wins. Don't turn the ball over, don't miss the pivotal kick, and don't extend your opponent's drive(s) with penalties. But that's no fun.
Special teams aren’t glamorous but one would be remiss to ignore that Harrison Butker hasn’t hit a field goal from beyond 40 yards since Week 16 against Houston. He missed a 51-yarder against the Broncos in Week 18 and has gone a perfect 4-of-4 from under 40 since (and 5-of-5 on extra points).
Jake Elliott has been worse than Butker, posting a 77.8 percent field goal rate to Butker’s 84 percent during the regular season. Elliott also went 1-of-8 from beyond 50 yards when you include the miss against Washington in the NFCCG. Mix in three failed extra points during the playoffs alone to go with a team built for mauling two-point conversions and we could see Elliott passed over. At least this is a dome game!
We have to side with the experience and take K.C. in a nailbiter that eventually sees Philadelphia get outside of its game plan. If the Eagles score first then things could avalanche, but that feels less likely than the alternatives to this writer.
Super Bowl LIX Score Predictions By Quarter
Score After Quarter 1: 7-3 Kansas City
Score At Halftime: 17-10 Kansas City
Score After Quarter 3: 24-16 Kansas City
Final Score: 34-27 Kansas City
Player Prop Thoughts of Interest
Since Spags has taken over for the Chiefs, only Christian McCaffrey has rushed for 22 or more carries in a playoff game against K.C. (and that required overtime). Saquon Barkley’s rush attempt line is 21.5 and the under has better value, standing at nearly even money in some books. You can also try to snipe value on the “Under” for his longest rush, which sits around 23-25 yards.
Patrick Mahomes’ rushing overs have been fruitful in decisive postseason games, though you have to watch for those backtracking quarterback kneels! The line seems to be holding around 28.5 for now at books like FanDuel.
Never forget his bad beat from Super Bowl LIV 🤮
Mahomes kneels for -15 yards in the last minute and crushes Over 32.5 rush yards bettors.
Ruined this bettor’s $8.7K parlay...
(IG: bovicgabriel/@FDSportsbook) pic.twitter.com/merjQozZZi
— br_betting (@br_betting) January 29, 2025
For those who think Philly’s rushing volume will hold steady and don’t want to target anything resembling a Barkley under, consider K.C. linebacker Drue Tranquill over 7.5 tackles at plus money. He’s had 14 combined tackles in their first two playoff games but neither Houston nor Buffalo stuck with the rush. If you believe Philly does then here’s a leverage play.
You can also jump up to Nick Bolton’s line, which is trending toward an 8.5 line, or safety Chamarri Conner if you believe Spags loads the box and Barkley still finds the second level or perimeter consistently.
Another pivot from the Barkley hype goes around A.J. Brown, who has dominated man coverage. If the Chiefs do indeed drop Conner into the box and rock a single-high look then Brown becomes their tormentor.
Per Matt Harmon of Yahoo, Brown paced the NFL in yards per route run and first downs per route run against man coverage. You can manifest this with yardage ladders and TD props.
A.J. Brown led the NFL by a significant margin with 4.27 yards per route run vs. man coverage during the regular season and was also No. 1 in first downs per route run vs. man (min. 250+ routes).
He is still an elite WR in the NFL and shows it when he gets the chances. pic.twitter.com/RqVIbW7Bgz
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) January 23, 2025
Of course, DeVonta Smith is also a historical menace against the Chiefs. He’s ripped them apart for 99, 100, and 122 yards over three career games against them. His longest reception line sits near 20.5 and makes for a tasty over if you don’t want to bite on receptions (4.5) or yards (~50). If Philly continues to utilize Smith out of the slot, as it did against Washington, then he should feast.
The Chiefs have been notably weaker against the slot. See below for their numbers since week 9 (excluding wk18 when starters rested):
- Against all targets: 9th in YPA (6.94), 12th in CPOE (1.8%), 15th in catchable throw rate (74%)
- Against slot: 24th in YPA (8.67), 27th in… https://t.co/BizFNn8kB7— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) January 29, 2025
The thought train should lead any Barkley faders, or those who simply believe K.C. will put the Eagles into a hole, to back Brown or Smith. Dallas Goedert seemed to possess the first wave of steam, so those numbers are less enticing, but not beyond the pale.
There is less confidence around how the Chiefs might attack, but early unders on Kareem Hunt and Xavier Worthy have been a lean. Hunt saw solid volume against Buffalo but otherwise has a typical 8-12 carry workload since Isiah Pacheco returned.
Worthy accelerated down the stretch but Brown’s return has curtailed the rise, and Philly also defends screens quite well.
Eagles defensive DVOA by distance of opposing passes.
Behind LOS: 8th
0-9 yards: 3rd (what KC did most this year)
10-19 yards: 19th
20+ yards: 3rd— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) January 31, 2025
A sprinkle on Nikko Remigio (+4700 at FanDuel) as the one-off quickster on the motion near the end zone or as the return man also caught my eye.
As always, please play any contest and place all bets responsibly. View it as part of an entertainment budget that enhances the final game of our glorious fantasy football campaign. Of course, we at RotoBaller never stop and have plenty of analysis and ranks geared toward the upcoming 2025-26 season if you’re thirsty for more!
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