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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 12
Joe Burrow OVER 19.04 Fantasy Points
Life's too short to bet the under, amirite? The Week 12 NFL slate is a unique one, and for that reason, I'm all about the overs this week.
Let's start with Bengals' QB Joe Burrow, who travels to Nashville for a showdown with the Tennessee Titans. RIVAL pegs Burrow's O/U at 19.04 fantasy points - a mark that he's topped in four of his last five outings.
This week he faces a true pass-funnel defense in the Titans. Tennessee ranks first in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA, yet they have been extremely vulnerable through the air, as they've allowed the league's second-most passing yards (2,877) and passing TDs (18) to opposing QBs. With Joe Mixon already ruled out for Cincinnati, Joey B. should be putting the ball in the air early and often in this one.
Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 14.88 fantasy points
A true smash spot for Jeff Wilson Jr. here for multiple reasons. His Miami backfield mate, Raheem Mostert has been officially designated as doubtful. Mostert's absence would give Wilson a clear path to a workhorse role for the Dolphins.
The matchup doesn't get much better, as this Houston Texans squad has been consistently destroyed on the ground in 2022. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in fantasy points, rushing yards (1,536), and rushing TDs (13) allowed to the RB position.
Since joining the Dolphins at the trade deadline, Wilson has been a seamless fit for HC Mike McDaniel's zone running scheme. The former 49er has totaled 215 scrimmage yards and two TDs since arriving in South Beach. Wilson is primed to add to that tally this week.
Davante Adams OVER 20.52 fantasy points
Although the Raiders are struggling mightily this season, the blame can't be laid on Davante Adams. Las Vegas' offseason acquisition has posted video-game numbers as of late. Adams has now caught seven or more passes, totaled 124 or more receiving yards, and caught at least one TD in three straight games.
Consistently playing out of his mind, the Vegas receiver leads the NFL in team target share with a massive 32.6% and he's averaged 14.3 targets per game over the Raiders' last three. They head to Seattle for a matchup that carries the highest projected point total (47.5) on the Week 12 main slate.
Rachaad White OVER 13.14 fantasy points
Lots of similarities with the aforementioned Jeff Wilson Jr., as Rachaad White is another RB in a great matchup that figures to garner workhorse duty thanks to an injury. Tampa Bay's Leonard Fournette has been designated as doubtful for a Week 12 matchup against the Cleveland Browns, leaving White with a stranglehold on this Bucs' backfield.
Prior to Tampa Bay's bye week, White logged career highs in both carries (22) and rushing yards (105) in a Week 10 win over the Seattle Seahawks - a game in which Fournette suffered a hip pointer late in the second half. A dynamic rookie, White will again lead the charge against a Browns defense that ranks dead last in the league in Rush Defense DVOA.
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