RADIO
Welcome to the Week 11 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
We have nearly a full player pool to work with in the Week 11 main slate, with just the Seahawks, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Dolphins on bye and no early-morning international game. That naturally affords us more value options overall, but this week still presents a challenge in terms of identifying appealing candidates at certain positions. Nevertheless, we've got a case to make for multiple players to consider at each spot, including a few site-specific selections in addition to the standard suggestions.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Russell Wilson, DEN vs. LVR | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $25
Wilson has undoubtedly underwhelmed to open his Broncos tenure, but it's virtually impossible to believe the highly accomplished quarterback has just completely fallen off a cliff. However, the sub-par numbers have resulted in a nice salary drop across the board for the veteran signal-caller, and Week 11 could well be the time to take advantage, especially with value being a bit more sparse than usual. Wilson arguably put together his sharpest all-around performance of the season thus far against the same Raiders squad he'll face Sunday, throwing for 237 yards and a season-high two touchdown passes without an interception while adding another score on the ground in a Week 4 matchup in Las Vegas.
Wilson will almost certainly be operating without Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and KJ Hamler (hamstring), but he'll be facing a Raiders defense that's allowed 252.4 passing yards per game on the road, along with 10.3 yards per completion in that split. Additionally, Las Vegas has been one of the weakest teams at applying pressure on opposing QBs, posting an NFL-low 10 sacks and tying for the second-lowest adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders (4.4%). That could make a significant difference for Wilson, even with his short-handed pass-catching corps, as he's taken the fourth-most sacks (30).
Baker Mayfield, CAR at BAL | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $20
Further cementing how at a premium viable value at quarterback is on this slate is the fact Mayfield is in our sights. However, the 2018 first overall pick certainly isn't incapable of putting up a strong score for the very modest salaries he's carrying in his return to the starting job, and Mayfield will certainly have no shortage of incentive to make a big splash in order to hold off both the injured P.J. Walker (ankle) and the now-healthy Sam Darnold. As it happens, the matchup works out well for a potential productive day through the air, as the Ravens have been a shutdown defense against the run but have had their share of breakdown versus the pass.
Baltimore is surrendering the third-fewest rushing yards per game (92.0), including a tiny 68.3 over the last three. However, the Ravens are giving up the third-most passing yards per game (268.8), along with a 68.2 percent completion rate in that split. Baltimore is also conceding an elevated 10.6 yards per completion at home and has allowed 10 red-zone passing TDs overall, while Mayfield, despite eventually getting demoted from the starting job earlier in the campaign, did produce a trio of tallies of 13.3 to 19 DK/FD points during his tenure.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Marcus Mariota, ATL vs. CHI | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $25
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Brian Robinson, WAS at HOU | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $17
Robinson will undoubtedly be popular Sunday, but he's certainly still worthy of consideration at his salaries for either cash games or even as a chalk play in tournaments. The rookie had a strong performance against the Eagles in a nationally televised game Monday night, and now he'll draw a matchup against the league's most generous run defense. Robinson just logged a career-high 26 carries versus Philadelphia, and although that could be seen as a liability on a short week, it's also indicative of head coach Ron Rivera's willingness to afford his first-year back a hefty workload.
The Texans are surrendering 181.8 rushing yards per game, including 216 per contest over the last three, both NFL-high figures. Houston is also giving up 5.5 RB yards per carry and ranks No. 32 and No. 29 in second-level and open-field yards allowed. Meanwhile, Robinson has usually found running room at a premium behind a Commanders offensive line that's facilitated just 3.7 RB yards per carry, but this matchup could well be the cure for what ails them, at least for one week. Robinson is also gaining an above-average 72.5% of his yards after first contact and is already averaging over 16 touches per game, including 14 red-zone touches in only six contests; the latter metric is particularly interesting when considering the Texans have yielded 12 red-zone rushing TDs, tied for second most in the league.
Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. CHI | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $16
Allgeier was able to carve out a solid role during Cordarrelle Patterson's recent four-game stint on IR with a knee injury, and even in the veteran's return, the rookie has averaged 26 snaps over the last two games. In the Week 10 loss to the Panthers, Allgeier saw eight carries to Patterson's five, and assuming the ground attack as a whole isn't limited by game script Sunday, the explosive first-year back could deliver some very strong returns on his modest salaries against a Bears defense that's been a sieve versus the run on the road.
Chicago is surrendering 170.4 rushing yards per road game at a clip of 5.3 yards per rush attempt. The Bears are also ranked in the bottom half of the league in all four rush defense sub-categories tracked by Football Outsiders -- Power, Stuffed, Second-Level and Open-Field. Additionally, Chicago has surrendered an NFL-high 15 red-zone rushing TDs, while Allgeier has already generated a whopping 18 red-zone touches in nine games. Considering he has just one rushing TD thus far despite that level of opportunity, the pendulum could certainly swing in his favor thanks to the matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Devin Singletary, BUF vs. CLE | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $18
Yahoo-Only Special:
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. NYJ | $23
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. LVR | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $15
Given the theory that Wilson should have a good chance to put together a solid outing Sunday, Sutton makes for a useful pass catcher to pair him with, especially with Jeudy's likely absence. Sutton put together an efficient five-catch, 52-yard, one-touchdown effort against the Raiders on seven targets in Week 4, and he saw a co-season-high 11 targets against the Titans in Week 10 after his position mate essentially missed the entire game. Now, the acrobatic wideout gets another crack at a Las Vegas squad that's been vulnerable through the air all season, especially in the red zone.
The Raiders have surrendered a 33-for-54, 216-yard tally through the air from the 20-yard line on in, along with the third-most touchdown passes (13) in that part of the field. Meanwhile, Sutton is averaging one red-zone target per game thus far and could certainly be in store for more in this matchup, as the Raiders are conceding an elevated 3.4 red-zone scoring attempts per road game. Sutton is also laying claim to just over 24% of the Broncos' targets and 32% of the team's air yards, figures that could also get a boost in the absences of both Jeudy and Hamler.
DJ Moore, CAR at BAL | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $19
Given the Ravens' aforementioned weaknesses against the pass already detailed in Mayfield's entry, Moore makes for an interesting receiver to pair him with in the quarterback's return to the lineup. Moore logged a solid 37 targets over the first five games of the season with Mayfield under center, parlaying the opportunity into a 17-197-1 line. The veteran has gone on to have a couple of especially productive performances with Walker under center in recent weeks, and he could be in line to rebound from totaling just six receptions for 53 yards over the last two games.
Baltimore's tendencies to give up some sizable plays through the air could suit Moore well, as he's clocking an elevated 11.5-yard aDOT and is claiming a whopping 44.5% of the Panthers' air yards. Moreover, he's boasting the lowest drop rate of his career (3.9%) and being targeted on over a quarter of his routes; given his importance to Carolina's passing attack and his talent, there's little question Mayfield should be looking to him often in a game Carolina could well find itself trailing in.
Van Jefferson, LAR at NO | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $15
Many will undoubtedly flock to Jefferson's position mate Allen Robinson with Cooper Kupp (ankle) sidelined, but the third-year wideout could well be the play for tournaments given both his reduced salaries and big-play upside. Adding to Jefferson's appeal, especially in large-field play, is the fact he only has a 3-27-1 line over his first three games of the season following his recovery from knee surgery, and all that production actually came in the Week 10 loss the Cardinals. However, Jefferson's speed, particularly in a dome environment, could allow him to pay off the investment required to roster him on one play.
The Saints have been very good limiting passing yardage overall, but when teams do connect on them, it's usually for a higher-than-average gain. New Orleans is conceding 10.2 yards per completion overall, along with 13.1 yards per reception to wideouts specifically. Receivers have an acceptable 66.7 percent catch rate against the Saints as well, and New Orleans will once again be down Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) for Sunday's game. Jefferson should certainly be in for a boost in targets and amply demonstrated his big-play prowess last season by recording 12 catches of at least 20 yards, including four of at least 40, on 50 grabs overall.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Allen Robinson, LAR at NO | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $14
DK-Yahoo-only Special:
Parris Campbell, IND vs. PHI | DK: $4,300, Yahoo: $11
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. CIN | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $16
Freiermuth continues to see an impressively consistent target share, now having logged at least seven looks in three straight and four of the last five games overall. The second-year tight end has a 25-265 line over that span while being targeted on a solid 22.1% of his routes. Freiermuth also enjoyed one of his more productive days of the season when facing the Bengals back in Week 1, posting a 5-75 line on a season-high 10 targets in that game. While Mitch Trubisky was under center for Pittsburgh in that contest, Freiermuth has also ready shown plenty of rapport with Kenny Pickett in recent games and could therefore be set for another busy afternoon in the Week 11 rematch.
The Bengals have given up a 40-410-2 line to tight ends, which isn't overly generous by any means. However, Freiermuth is one of the more athletic players at the position they'll face all season and has already produced against them once, plus Cincinnati has made life especially difficult on wide receivers while surrendering just a 58.8 percent catch rate, which funnels more action toward the tight end. That could be especially true in the case of a rookie quarterback like Pickett, who'll be wary of turnovers and likely to latch on to a player that's proven to be an effective security blanket for him.
Greg Dulcich, DEN vs. LVR | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $16
Dulcich had a quiet afternoon in Week 10 after producing an impressive 12-182-1 line on 17 targets over his first three NFL games, as he brought in just one of four targets for 11 yards against a tough Titans defense. However, the matchup is exponentially more appealing versus the Raiders, and the fact Jeudy is likely to miss the game due to the ankle injury he suffered on Denver's first offensive play against Tennessee leaves Dulcich even more poised for a bounce-back effort.
The rookie faces a Raiders defense that's given up a 44-457 line to tight ends while also tying for second-most touchdowns allowed to the position (six). Dulchich could also be poised to take advantage of Las Vegas' aforementioned penchant for solid gains through the air, as he has an elevated aDOT for a tight end (12.9), is seeing a solid 68 air yards per game and has quickly recorded a trio of catches of at least 20 yards on just 13 receptions overall.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Cole Kmet, CHI at ATL | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $14; Foster Moreau, LVR at DEN | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $11
DK/Yahoo-only Special:
T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. DAL | DK: $5,300, Yahoo: $19
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