RADIO
I hit on a few key pieces during last weekend’s Wild Card Round. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Dawson Knox had a pretty solid start to the slate. Minnesota’s passing game flopped pretty badly, but the Isaiah Hodgins bring-back was a solid differentiator in any lineup. And lastly, Brock Purdy went nuclear (though I recommended Kittle as opposed to Deebo). We also hit the nail on the head with the DK Metcalf bring-back.
Moving to the Divisional Round, there is one game that stands above the rest (JAC-KC), and my write-up reflects that fact. I’ll once again deliver three stacks strictly for DraftKings for this weekend’s action. Hopefully we can make some noise in the DFS streets with a great lineup.
The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes ($8000) + Travis Kelce ($7700)
Few stacks qualify as a sure thing in DFS. Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce is about as close as it gets. As the key cogs of an offense that led the league in scoring (29.2), this duo has racked up fantasy points all season long. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t slowed down a bit without Tyreek Hill in the fold; they posted 11 games with at least 27 points this season, and they’ve scored at least 24 in nine straight contests.
Featuring the highest over/under of any game this weekend, it’s a clear spot to target of the four games. It will be interesting to see which Jacksonville defense shows up, as the last five weeks have been a mixed bag from the unit; they gave up 30 and 34 points to the Cowboys and Chargers respectively over that span, while the Titans, Texans, and Jets mustered only 16, 3, and 3 points. In terms of offensive capability, Kansas City mirrors the Cowboys and Chargers much more closely.
Jacksonville has yielded the fourth-most yards and the eighth-most DK points to tight ends in 2022. Additionally, Doug Pederson’s defense has allowed the sixth-most yards and the eighth-most DK points to gunslingers, further enhancing Mahomes’ matchup. In 17 games this year, Kelce didn’t draw seven targets just ONCE. As dominant a tight end as the game has seen, he led the position in targets (152) and red-zone targets (30) in his age-33 season.
Preferred bring-back: Zay Jones ($4700)
Leverage piece: Kadarius Toney ($4100)
Is it bad that I just can’t quit Kadarius Toney? He’s averaging an absurd 2.63 yards per route run since arriving in Kansas City. He’s seen 17 targets and handled five carries since joining forces with the Chiefs, and Andy Reid looks intent on forcing the talented playmaker the ball any chance he gets. Toney posted a 4/57/1 line with 33 rushing yards in a Week 10 matchup with the Jags, so $4100 looks fairly enticing for No. 19 in red and white.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Dak Prescott ($6100) + CeeDee Lamb ($7300)
Dallas steamrolled an overmatched Buccaneers team last Monday night. Up next, they’ll get one of the league’s best defenses in San Francisco. PFF has labeled Kyle Shanahan’s defense as the fourth-best-graded run defense and the best tackling unit. That is evidenced by the Niners’ league-best 3.4 yards per carry allowed. In other words, Dallas will need to move the ball through the air in order to be effective against San Fran.
As 3.5-point underdogs, the game script should set up for the Cowboys to be slinging the rock. CeeDee Lamb has been ultra-productive down the stretch, as he’s posted 16.2 or more PPR points in five straight games, four touchdown catches combined over his last four games, and he’s drawn five red-zone targets over his last four games. San Francisco has yielded the ninth-most completions and the 13th-highest completion percentage of any team (65.6%).
Both defenses set up as pass-funnel units, as they each rank in the top six in the league in rushing yards allowed per contest (Cowboys at just 52; 49ers at just 104). Pass volume could be elevated here, and Lamb and the rest of Dallas’ receivers should benefit.
Preferred bring-back: Deebo Samuel ($5900)
Leverage piece: Michael Gallup ($3800)
The Niners have been solid on defense all year long, but their Achilles heel has certainly been outside receiver play. Davante Adams (7/153/2), DK Metcalf (10/136/2), A.J. Green (3/91/1), Terry McLaurin (4/77/1), and Jahan Dotson (6/76/1) have all posted big fantasy lines on them in the last four weeks. They’ve conceded the sixth-most yards, seventh-most TDs (16), and the fifth-most DK points to wideouts (Pro Football Reference).
Dalton Schultz had a blow-up game last week, but the Niners have stymied opposing tight ends this year. Running just 6.0% of his routes from the slot in 2022, Michael Gallup could be the beneficiary of a plus matchup here. With a juicy price tag and tantalizing upside, don’t forget about Gallup when building lineups this weekend.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence ($6000) + Christian Kirk ($6000) AND/OR Zay Jones ($4700)
As I mentioned at the top, Jags-Chiefs is the clear top game in my mind. That’s why we’re targeting the other side as well with this last stack.
Trevor Lawrence stacks are super cheap for the Divisional Round, and Jacksonville will likely be forced into numerous drop-back passing situations in this spot at least 90% of the time. Only the Cowboys and Titans have surrendered more receiving touchdowns to WRs than the Chiefs (20), and K.C. tops the entire league in total passing touchdowns given up (33).
Andy Reid’s defense is susceptible to great quarterback play, and that is exactly what Lawrence has provided in recent weeks (outside of the first half of last week’s game). The second-year pro has tallied at least 20 rushing yards in seven games this season. Along with that, the Chiefs have yielded the fifth-most rushing yards to the position and the fourth-most DK points.
Christian Kirk absolutely terrorized the Chiefs in Week 10 with a 9/105/2 stat line. He has turned in 21.8 and 21.9 PPR points the last two weeks, and he’s gone 10 straight weeks with at least one red-zone target. He’s Lawrence’s undisputed top target. However, don’t forget about Zay Jones — who is the definition of a boom-or-bust receiver; Zay has five games with 21 or more PPR points in 2022, but he also has seven games with under seven PPR points.
Preferred bring-back: Travis Kelce ($7700)
Leverage piece: Evan Engram ($4300)
Though the Chiefs have limited receptions by tight ends this year, they’re one of six teams to have allowed at least nine receiving scores to the position. Engram has big upside (see: Week 14 against TEN), but he’s also provided a level of consistency at the tight end position. He has reached 14 or more PPR points in five of his last seven games. In a come-from-behind effort, Engram could get peppered with targets in the middle of the field.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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