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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Super Bowl LIV. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Super Bowl LIV
More or Less
George Kittle more than 71.5 receiving yards - George Kittle should be one of the focal points in the San Franciso passing attack on Sunday. The Chiefs have struggled mightily vs. the tight end position throughout the season as they have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards (961) to the position. Kittle has also had some massive games this season as he has eclipsed 70 receiving yards in eight games on the season, including his last three regular-season games.
Travis Kelce less than 6.5 receptions - Kelce has been one of Mahomes' favorite targets throughout the 2019 season, however, this matchup may prove to be quite difficult for the all-pro tight end. The 49ers have been especially stout against the tight end position as they have allowed the fewest yards (552) and 10th-fewest receptions (66) to the position. The 49ers will likely make defending Kelce a focal point heading into Sunday as well.
Damien Williams less than 50.5 rushing yards - Damien Williams under the total here should be one of the safer props in this game for a few reasons. First, the Chiefs do not rush the ball very often. They rank 27th in the league as far as rushing attempts are concerned with only 375 on the season. Second, Williams has only eclipsed 50 yards rushing in a total of four games on the season and has failed to reach the mark in both of the Chiefs' playoff games. Finally, the 49ers have been stout against the run as they have allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards (1309) to the running back position in 2019. This averages out to 81.8 yards per game. They also managed to completely stuff one of the league's best running backs in Dalvin Cook during the Divisional Round where he managed just 18 rushing yards on nine carries.
Raheem Mostert more than 86.5 rushing yards - This prop is a little more difficult to gauge, has fluctuated over the past few days, and is worth monitoring. The 49ers love to run the ball as expressed by them ranking second in the league in rushing attempts and yards behind only the Baltimore Ravens. Mostert will almost certainly be the focal point on Sunday as Tevin Coleman continues to recover from a separated shoulder. The Chiefs have struggled vs. running backs in 2019 as they have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to the position by allowing 108.5 yards per game. While they did manage to hold Derrick Henry to just 69 yards on 19 carries, this 49ers rush attack is set up a bit different with more deception than the Titans. It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs try to attack the run game of the 49ers early on, and this may also be a prop to examine heading into the second half of the game.
Tyreek Hill under 79.5 receiving yards - Tyreek Hill is a unique talent that may be immune to this strong 49ers pass defense, but the prop total is just too high to bet the over. The 49ers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards to wide receivers with an average of 130 yards per game. Add in the fact that Hill has only eclipsed this total in three games on the season and you have a prop where the safest play is under. Pay attention to the wide receiver and cornerback matchups heading into the game though. If Hill ends up drawing Richard Sherman, the speed and elusiveness of Hill may be too much for the veteran corner. If this ends up being the case, I would likely shy away from using this prop in any contest.
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Rapid Fire
Jimmy Garoppolo (+65.5) passing yards vs. Patrick Mahomes - This comes down to the fact that the number Jimmy G is getting is just too high. Both of these teams defend the pass relatively well. The Chiefs have allowed the 10th-fewest passing yards per game to quarterbacks with 240.4 and the 49ers allow the fewest passing yards per game with 190.9 yards per game. It goes to reason that Mahomes and the Chiefs will be throwing the ball more seeing as they rarely run, but I just can't concede 65.5 passing yards when the opposing quarterback is going up against the best pass defense in the league.
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