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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 9. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Browns @ Bengals: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Joe Burrow over 260.5 passing yards and Baker Mayfield over 225.5 passing yards
Burrow has gone over this total in five straight games and all but two games on the season, so this total feels a bit low and will likely rise as we get closer to Sunday. Burrow has thrown for an average of 315 passing yards per game over his previous five games and will now be facing a Cleveland defense that has allowed quarterbacks to average 256.5 passing yards per game over their previous four games and are fresh off allowing Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 266 passing yards. They have also been pretty strong against the run as they have allowed running backs to rush for an average of just 85 yards per game over the previous four weeks. This could equate to a passing recipe for Burrow and the Bengals and he should be able to get over this total on Sunday.
Mayfield and the Browns will enter this game as underdogs and may also find it difficult to run against a Bengals defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to running backs on the season. They have also struggled a bit against quarterbacks lately as they have allowed the second-most passing yards per game over the previous four weeks by allowing an average of 316 passing yards per game over that span and are fresh off allowing Jets quarterback, Mike White to throw for 405 passing yards. This is also a number Mayfield has gone over in three of his previous five games and missed it by just half of a yard in another game.
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Raiders @ Giants: Rush Hour Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker to rush for more than 134.5 yards
This is a sneaky spot where both running backs could have some success in a game where the current total is hovering around 46. Josh Jacobs has averaged 14 carries per game when healthy but has not had the yards pile up as one would hope. That could change this week against a Giants' defense that has allowed an average of 112 rushing yards per game to running backs over the previous four weeks, which is ranked fifth-worst in the league. They have also allowed an average of over 4.3 yards per carry over that span. This has the potential to be one of Jacobs' best games of the season.
Devontae Booker has taken over as the lead back for the Giants while Saquon Barkley has been on the shelf and he has averaged over 14 carries per game over the previous four weeks. He will be going up against a Raiders' defense that has struggled a bit against the run as they have allowed an average of over 105 rushing yards per game to running backs over the previous four weeks, which ranks eighth-worst over that span. Booker should be able to contribute solidly to this total as long as the Giants keep it close and that is exactly what they are expected to do with a spread of just three points in this game.
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Broncos @ Cowboys: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Ezekiel Elliott more than 16.5 fantasy points and Jerry Jeudy more than 12.5 fantasy points
Zeke has gone over this total in four off his previous five games in 2021. Dak is likely to return in this game, which makes this offense a dual-threat in terms of passing and rushing, which will be difficult for the Broncos to contend with. The Cowboys will enter this game as large favorites with the spread currently sitting at -9.5, which should get Zeke some additional carries. This is a Broncos' defense that recently allowed D'Ernest Johnson to carve them up for 146 yards on 22 carries and have allowed an average of 124 rushing yards per game to the running back position over their previous four games. They have also allowed four rushing touchdowns to the position across that span, which ranks seventh-worst in the league, and have allowed the 10th-most receptions to backs over that span with 23.
Jeudy and the Broncos will enter this game as significant underdogs, which should help improve his chances of earning targets late in the game. He has seen an average of 5.5 targets in his two games played this season and could see some additional targets in this one due to the fact that Trevon Diggs will likely be spending a lot of his time covering Courtland Sutton. Jeudy will also be covered mostly by Cowboys' cornerback, Jourdan Lewis, who has allowed over 13 fantasy points per game to wide receivers thus far in 2021.
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