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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 13's Monday Night Football of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in tonight's game, so let's get to the picks!
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Patriots @ Bills More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Josh Allen more than 234.5 passing yards and Mac Jones less than 200.5 passing yards
This is a low total on Allen, but it comes with good reason, sort of. The Patriots' pass defense has been great lately as they have only allowed an average of 109 passing yards per game over their previous three games, which ranks best in the league. That being said, they have not exactly faced tough quarterbacks in Ryan Tannehill (no A.J. Brown or Julio Jones), Matt Ryan (on a short week), and Baker Mayfield. While they did hold Justin Herbert to just 223 passing yards in Week 8, they gave up over 400 passing yards to Dak Prescott back in Week 6. This is a tough Bills offense that can sling it around pretty well and it is also a number Allen has gone over in four of his previous five games, so the over looks pretty solid here at home under the bright lights.
This is a game where I think the Patriots will try to establish the run against a defense that is allowing over 108 rushing yards per game to the running back position. They are also only allowing an average of 182 passing yards per game to quarterbacks over their previous three games, which ranks sixth-best on the league. They have held three of the last four quarterbacks they have faced to less than this total.
UPDATE: It is extremely windy in Orchard Park with sustained winds hovering around 25mph. This has me very hesitant on the Josh Allen more than 234.5 passing yards.
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Patriots @ Bills More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Stefon Diggs more than 59.5 receiving yards and Damien Harris more than 53.5 rushing yards
This is likely the lowest number we will see all season on Diggs. He has gotten more than this total in all but two games this season and has also gone over it in three of his previous four games. He will have a tough matchup in this one as the Patriots have not allowed a wide receiver to eclipse 60 receiving yards since Keenan Allen in Week 8, but they also have not faced a wide receiver of Diggs' caliber since Week 8, either. Diggs has also seen an average of nine targets per game over his previous four games, so the volume should be there to help him get more than the total here.
The Pats are going to want to attempt to counteract the high-flying Bills offense by establishing the run early and often. Harris has hit this total in three of his previous five games and is also averaging nearly 15 carries per game over that span. The Bills have also struggled a bit against the run as they have allowed an average of over 108 rushing yards per game to backs over their previous three games, which is ranked in the bottom half of the league.
Patriots @ Bills More or Less Contest
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