NFL DFS Lineup Sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel - Week 3 Value Picks Include Derek Carr, Justice Hill, Christian Kirk, and Logan Thomas

September 21, 2023

Dawn's NFL DFS sleepers for DraftKings, FanDuel and Week 3 (2023). Her value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.

We're on to week 3, RotoBallers, and we're here to guide you through the second week of the season and find the sneakiest sleeper values to help you take down your favorite contest. If you're playing cash games, you don't have to have the top QB or RB of the week. But in Guaranteed Prize Pool's (GPP's)? The best way to go is to focus on players with the highest potential upside for their DFS price.

This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS (based on DraftKings salaries) for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must.

It's crucial to prioritize players with higher guaranteed floors and consistency to increase our chances of winning cash games. No matter which game you choose, these picks will come in handy. So, without further ado, let's dive in!

Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3

Derek Carr, NO vs. GB | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,900

Derek Carr at $5,500 on DraftKings feels like a steal. In the first two weeks of his official campaign with the Saints, he is averaging a 63.8% completion percentage, 69.7% versus the Titans in his first game of the season. His play wasn't his best last week, but I expect him to bounce back versus Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers on the road this Sunday.

The season is still young, but the Packers have allowed an average of 212.0 passing yards per game, and the Saints have passed for an average of approximately 270 yards per game. Carr is averaging around 13 fantasy points per game thus far and had 18 in his matchup against Tennessee. He should have no problem hitting his value against the Packers, even at Lambeau Field.

C.J. Stroud, HOU vs. JAX  | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600

The Texans are 0-2, but don't let that distract you from the fact that, per PFF, Nico Collins led all receivers last week with six explosive plays (15 yards or more). In two career games, Stroud has a 63% completion rate and has thrown for 240 yards or more in each. Week two saw Stroud's first and second touchdown throws in the NFL, and he's yet to throw an interception.

Houston should find themselves behind in this game, prompting Stroud to pass more as the game goes on. At $5,300 on DraftKings, for Stroud to hit value, he will need 2.5/3x his price tag, between 17 and 18 fantasy points. Last week versus Indiana, he threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns, netting him 25.46 fantasy points. If he can do the same versus Jacksonville, he'll hit his value and then some, making him one of my favorite QB value plays of the week. (Keep an eye on his shoulder injury via reports for this week.)

Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3

Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. CHI | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,300

Pacheco's overall offensive PFF grade is 70.4. It was 73.9 at Jacksonville last week, were had 70 total yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, with his longest being 31 yards.

The second-year running back has a great matchup versus Chicago this weekend, where the Chiefs have a projected 29.7 point total (per RotoBaller projections). Chicago is ranked 16 in running yards allowed this season, averaging 106 per game, including 120 allowed to Green Bay in week one. If Kansas City scores 30 or more, Pacheco will most certainly be a contributor and will def meet his value, and probably more.

PFF Offensive Grading for Pacheco (through week 2)

Tyler Allgeier, ATL @ DET | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,600

Let's be clear: I'm not about to proclaim Allgeier to have a better game than Bijan Robinson (although, it could happen) but it's clear that Allgeier isn't going to be your run-of-the-mill backup running back.

Per RotoBaller's projections, Allgeier is projected for 97.3 yards rushing and one touchdown at Detroit. If he bumps that rushing number from 97 to 100, we'll get a 3-point DK bonus, which would get Allgeier to just about 20 fantasy points, just over 3.5x value. A definite pick for cash games and probably for tournaments as well.

Justice Hill, BAL vs. IND | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,000

I know, I had Justice Hill here last week, but I have to go back to the well, even with Gus Edwards looming. We do need to keep an eye on his toe injury, which could keep him out this week. Harbaugh has been quiet on that front, saying, "It's not anything to our advantage to talk about any of that stuff right now.".

Hill is third in rushing on the Ravens but leads with two touchdowns. If he is unable to go, it'll be Gus Edwards SZN.

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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3

Christian Kirk, JAX vs. HOU | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500

Kirk is projected for 12.7 fantasy points this week, with a possible ceiling of 19 and a team total of 26.75. -9.5 points favor Jacksonville, and while I can see them winning this one, I think the score could be much closer than that.

With Zay Jones missing part of last week's game with an injury, Kirk was targeted 14 times with 11 catches, 110 yards, going 45 yards with his longest catch. Jones didn't practice Wednesday but I expect he'll play. How involved he will be is the question and regardless of the answer, I expect Kirk to have another great outing at home versus the Texans.

Rashid Shaheed, NO @ GB | DK: $4,200, FD: $6,000

I have been high on Shaheed since before the season began when I wrote one of my first articles about him and his burgeoning chemistry with Derek Carr. There are certainly a lot of mouths to feed in New Orleans, but Shaheed has been getting his fill. Olave has had more than twice the targets in their previous two games, but Shaheed has the lone touchdown between them. $4,200 is far too cheap for Shaheed and is a great play for cash and tournaments this week.

Rashid Shaheed - Last Two Games

Chris Olave - Last Two Games

Josh Reynolds, DET vs. ATL | DK: $4,200, FD: $7,000

The Lions are without DJ Chark and could be without Amon-Ra St. Brown in their week three matchup at home versus Atlanta. Reynolds himself is dealing with a groin injury, but if he does play (and as of now, I expect he will), he'll be a favorite target of Jared Goff.

Reynolds was targeted six times in the Lions' overtime loss to the Seahawks last week, going for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Those targets will have to go up if they are missing the Sun God, and given the relationship between Goff and Reynolds, developed during their time together in Los Angeles, Goff has a lot of trust in Reynolds. Another reason to be excited about the low price tag of $4,200 on DraftKings. Reynolds could have a big game versus Atlanta and can be rostered in cash games and tournaments.

Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 3

Dalton Kincaid, BUF @ WSH | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,100

I keep waiting for Kincaid to bust out of obscurity, and I fear it might happen to my beloved Commanders. Washington has never been great versus tight ends, and this season is no different (at least they aren't the worst).

In two games this season, Washington has allowed eight receptions on 13 targets to tight ends for 44 yards and 4 fantasy points. Not as bad as I initially thought, but not great. They are facing a Buffalo team that can throw the ball around and is looking to add another win to their 1-1 season and end the Josh Allen bashing. If Kincaid gets just one reception for a touchdown alone, that's seven (DK) fantasy points, more than enough to hit his value.

Logan Thomas, WSH vs. BUF | DK: $3,100, FD: $4,800

Let's go to the other side of the WSH/BUF game, shall we? Thomas is in the concussion protocol and didn't practice on Wednesday, but if he plays, he's a high-value tight end in week three. Washington is another team with several options at wide receiver. Still, Thomas' 6'6, 260-pound frame is hard for Howell to miss, and when healthy, Thomas is a solid tight end who can easily get to the value of his $3,100 DK price tag, especially if this game total gets up over 48 or more.

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