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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 9 Titans vs Steelers showdown slate on 11/2. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it with some Week 9 action as the Tennessee Titans (3-4) head north to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3). The Titans are coming off a win against the Falcons while the Steelers dropped a game to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars last week. It's going to be cold, with temperatures in the 30s tonight, let's see how that affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Buccaneers vs. Bills NFL DFS showdown slate on October 26. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Derrick Henry - RB, $17,700 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 120 rushing attempts, 526 rushing yards, 17 targets, 15 receptions, 138 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: -5.81%
I'll be starting things off with Tractorcito, Derrick Henry. Henry has certainly not had a season to his standard. However, he projects well tonight. He's projected to run the ball 17.17 times for 76.77 yards while adding 1.36 receptions on 2.54 targets for 11.54 yards and 0.59 total touchdowns. He's been more active in the passing game than in previous seasons, but that's not why I'm making him a top priority tonight. I think Tennessee does most of their offensive work on the ground, through Henry.
George Pickens - WR, $17,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 53 targets, 28 receptions, 522 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: 53.39%
I'll take a look on the other side of the field at George Pickens. I can't really say for sure that Pickens is the WR1 in Pittsburgh, I can't really say for sure anything about the Steelers' offense frankly. However, Pickens projects to 5.11 receptions on 6.36 targets for 71.45 yards and 0.39 touchdowns. He'll look to take advantage of a poor Tennessee secondary, and as long as the pass rush doesn't get home, I think he has himself a solid day.
Other Captains/MVPs: Diontae Johnson, Steelers D/ST, Titans D/ST
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DFS Flex Plays
Kenny Pickett - QB, $9,200 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,330 passing yards, five touchdowns, four interceptions, 25 rushing attempts, 22 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 1.89%
Throwing Pickens the ball will be Kenny Pickett of course. The Steelers do have a passing funnel projection in this one, but that's more due to their rushing game being essentially worthless in this matchup. Nevertheless, it'll be up to Pickett to put the points on the board for the Steelers tonight. He projects to 214.06 passing yards, 1.02 touchdowns, and 0.45 interceptions tonight. He also projects to 13.34 rushing yards on 4.64 carries. As mentioned with Pickens, I am slightly concerned about the Tennesee pass rush, but I think we see at least one Pickett to Pickens touchdown tonight.
DeAndre Hopkins - WR, $7,800 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 53 targets, 31 receptions, 504 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: 1.87%
I'll take a look at DeAndre Hopkins next. Hopkins projects to 4.91 receptions on 6.59 targets for 74.27 yards and 0.35 touchdowns. Hopkins scored all three of his touchdowns this season last week against the Falcons, and while that's not a sample size that I want to build off of, it's more than nothing. I think he'll be the favorite target for Levis tonight, and should at least see the volume to justify his price tag.
Other Flex Options: Diontae Johnson, Will Levis
DFS Value Plays
Pittsburgh Steelers - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 21 points per game allowed, 22 sacks, seven interceptions, eight fumble recoveries, and two defensive touchdowns.
I'll be taking a look at both defenses tonight. Starting with the Steelers, who project to have no problem getting to the quarterback. They project to a 35.22% pressure rate on Will Levis, with a sack rate of 10.14%. My model also projects the Titans to run the ball frequently, not running very many plays with a lot of time between them. I just can't see the Titans doing a ton tonight, which fits well for us here.
Tennessee Titans - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20 points per game allowed, 21 sacks, two interceptions, four fumble recoveries.
I'll wrap things up with the Titans defense. The Titans' defense has been so-so this season and just got rid of their top safety Kevin Byard last week. Nevertheless, they showed up and showed out against Atlanta last week. Similar to the Steelers defense, the Titans project to a 34.22% pressure rate and a 10.14% sack rate. Pickett is less prone to turning the ball over than what I presume Will Levis to be, but this is still an "under" game. So double defense it is.
Other Value Plays: Chris Boswell, Nick Folk, Allen Robinson
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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