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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 13 Seahawks vs. Cowboys showdown slate on 11/30. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back and happy Thursday, RotoBallers! We have an NFC showdown tonight between two playoff contenders seemingly headed in different directions. Geno Smith and the slipping Seattle Seahawks (6-5) head to Jerry World to take on Dak Prescott and the surging Dallas Cowboys (8-3). It'll be a short week for either of these teams, who both spent their Thanksgiving on the gridiron.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Seahawks vs. Cowboys NFL DFS showdown slate on November 30. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Dak Prescott - QB, $16,500 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,935 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 34 rushing attempts, 151 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 26.92%
I'll start things off tonight with Dak Prescott. Prescott gets a fantastic matchup tonight against Seattle's 23rd-ranked pass defense. He projects to 276.85 passing yards and 2.05 touchdowns with just 0.54 interceptions. He'll also look to add on the ground with 13.25 yards and 0.1 touchdowns on 3.31 rushing attempts. This one could end up in a Cowboys rout, and I think Dallas is willing to run up the score and "let Dak get his" as he works his way into the MVP race.
Tony Pollard - RB, $14,700 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 160 rushing attempts, 669 rushing yards, 46 targets, 39 receptions, 233 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -12.05%
I'll split up my 1.5x ownership between Dak Prescott and Tony Pollard tonight. Pollard projects to 82.34 yards on 13.58 carries tonight, as well as 3.36 receptions on 4.23 targets for 28.87 receiving yards and 1.02 total touchdowns. Despite the DVOA matchup, this is a good spot from a game script perspective. However, my main concern with Pollard is the potential lack of volume, which is why I mentioned Rico Dowdle as a sneaky alternate captain below.
Other Captains/MVPs: Cowboys D/ST, Geno Smith, CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle
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DFS Flex Plays
CeeDee Lamb - WR, $11,400 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 104 targets, 78 receptions, 1,066 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: 0.81%
I'll take a look at a pair of Dak's targets I'll be correlating him within the lineups that I run him in the 1.5x spot. The first, of course, is CeeDee Lamb. Lamb projects to 7.03 receptions on 9.15 targets for 90.28 yards and 0.61 touchdowns. While I feel like Lamb will always get his numbers, the reason that I'm not as comfortable with running him at the captain/MVP spot is that he will likely see a lot of bracket coverage with Devon Witherspoon around.
Jake Ferguson - TE, $6,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 58 targets, 40 receptions, 421 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs TE: 1.58%
I'll take a look at Jake Ferguson as the second pass-catcher I'll look to pair Dak with tonight. Ferguson projects to 3.81 receptions on 4.9 targets for 40.66 receiving yards and 0.26 touchdowns. It isn't much, and the 1.58% DVOA against tight ends that Seattle brings in is near the middle of the pack, but they do rank in the bottom 10 in targets, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to the position.
Other Flex Options: Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet
DFS Value Plays
Dallas Cowboys - D/ST, $5,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 18.5 points per game allowed, 37 sacks, 11 interceptions, five fumble recoveries, seven defensive touchdowns.
Clearly, I haven't mentioned a Seahawks offensive player to this point, which makes this an ideal spot for the Cowboys' defense as a correlation play. Generally speaking, I like Zach Charbonnet as a player. However, I think the absence of Kenneth Walker III will leave a hole in the Seattle offense. On top of this, Dallas projects to an absolutely insane 51.91% pressure rate, so even when Geno Smith drops back to pass, it's hard to think he'll have much time to let it fly.
Noah Fant - TE, $3,200 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 24 targets, 19 receptions, 261 receiving yards.
- Opposing Defensive DVOA vs TE: 12.25%
I'll wrap things up with Noah Fant. Tonight, Fant projects to just 1.52 receptions on 2.7 targets for 27.76 yards and 0.16 touchdowns. These aren't great projections by any stretch of the imagination, but I think it's the matchup more than the projection that catches my eye. Firstly, Dallas's 12.25% DVOA against tight ends ranks 25th in the league. Secondly, I previously mentioned the absurd pressure rate that Dallas's defense projects. I expect Noah Fant and all of the Seattle tight ends to be safety blankets tonight for Smith, making them all potentially valuable on this slate. However, I believe Fant has the most upside of the three.
Other Value Plays: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rico Dowdle, Michael Gallup, KaVontae Turpin
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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