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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 16 Saints vs. Rams showdown slate on 12/21. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back and happy Thursday, RotoBallers! We have an NFC showdown tonight between two playoff hopefuls as Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and the New Orleans Saints (7-7) head to the West Coast to take on Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, and the Los Angeles Rams (7-7).
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saints vs. Rams NFL DFS showdown slate on December 21. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Puka Nacua - WR, $14,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 134 targets, 87 receptions, 1,163 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR2: 1.89%
I'll start things off tonight with Puka Nacua. Nacua has emerged as one of the best young receivers in the league this season and comes in with the best-receiving matchup on the Rams' side of the ball. Nacua projects 5.58 receptions on 8.79 targets for 71.19 receiving yards and 0.41 touchdowns. Sure, the Rams are projected for some regression in the passing game against this tough Saints defense, but I think they have enough firepower on their side to take care of business.
Alvin Kamara - RB, $16,200 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 161 rushing attempts, 630 rushing yards, 79 targets, 68 receptions, 446 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -4.11%
I'll take a look on the other side of the field next with Alvin Kamara. Kamara projects to 14 carries for 57.08 yards on the ground and 4.06 receptions on 5.71 targets for 30.77 yards through the air. He also projects to 0.48 touchdowns. The Rams rank 19th in DVOA against the run, and 14th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. All things considered, it's not a "smash" matchup for Kamara, but if we're talking volume, I think it's worth having shares of both running backs in this game at the 1.5x spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: Kyren Williams, Chris Olave, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp
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DFS Flex Plays
Kyren Williams - RB, $11,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 186 rushing attempts, 953 rushing yards, 46 targets, 30 receptions, 192 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 7.06%
Speaking of the other running back in this game, I'll take a look at Kyren Williams. Williams has been excellent for Los Angeles this season, and he could be set up for another good game tonight. He projects to 17.2 carries for 84.02 rushing yards as well as 2.83 receptions on 4.45 targets for 19.55 receiving yards. He projects to 0.6 touchdowns, which is the highest projection of any individual player on this slate.
Chris Olave - WR, $8,600 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 116 targets, 72 receptions, 918 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs WR1: 6.87%
I'll take a look at Chris Olave next. Olave was limited throughout the week and was questionable entering this game. However, Dennis Allen confirmed on Wednesday that Olave will suit up for this one. This is great for fantasy and DFS players alive. Olave projects to 5.14 receptions on 8.07 targets for 67.16 receiving yards and 0.36 touchdowns. He'll take on a middle-of-the-road Rams secondary, so if Derek Carr can get him the ball, I think Olave could be a game-breaker in this one.
Other Flex Options: Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed
DFS Value Plays
Tyler Higbee - TE, $5,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 60 targets, 38 receptions, 403 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: -7.54%
I'll take a look at Tyler Higbee next. Higbee draws an interesting matchup against the Saints defense, who rank 12th in DVOA against tight ends. With that said, they rank 16th in receptions allowed, 21st in receiving yards allowed, and 29th in touchdowns allowed to the position. This is more of a "matchup" play than a "projection" play, as Higbee projects to just 2.77 receptions on 4.31 targets for 27.22 yards and 0.18 touchdowns, but I think he could have a huge game underneath as the Saints project to a 31.94% pressure rate. I'm anticipating a lot of quick throws from Stafford here.
Juwan Johnson - TE, $4,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 36 targets, 22 receptions, 190 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs TE: 12.1%
I'll wrap things up with Juwan Johnson. Now I know the "chalky" tight end for the Saints tonight will be Taysom Hill, but I like Johnson here given his cheap price on both sites. Johnson projects to have 1.84 receptions on 2.52 targets for 22.41 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. The Rams rank 16th in receptions allowed, 27th in receiving yards allowed, and 29th in touchdowns allowed to tight ends. This slate doesn't offer a ton of value, which makes me think Johnson could very well end up in the winning lineup tonight.
Other Value Plays: A.T. Perry, Lucas Havrisik, Tutu Atwell
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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