X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Saints vs Buccaneers MNF Showdown

Tom Brady - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Saints vs. Buccaneers showdown slate on 12/05. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.

Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 13 has gone well. We have an interesting Monday night matchup tonight as the Saints (4-8) head into Tampa to take on the Buccaneers (5-6). What makes this such an interesting matchup is two-fold. For one, the Saints have seemed to have the Bucs' number (at least in the regular season) the last few years. Secondly, despite the Saints having the sixth-worst record in the NFL, they're just a game and a half behind the Bucs for first in the NFC South. Nevertheless, let's take a look at what we want to do in our DFS lineups on this slate.

We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it. 

I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saints vs. Buccaneers NFL DFS showdown slate on December 5th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MVP/Captain Plays

Tom Brady - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 3,051 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
  • 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 22.2% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
  • 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.3% (12th), per Football Outsiders.

I'll start things off with the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady. Brady has had some struggles against the Saints since joining the Buccaneers, as previously mentioned, but I'm not expecting that to be the case tonight. The 3.5 line indicates that this game may be closer than some would expect, and the Buccaneers have a pretty large lean toward the DVOA passing funnel (+36.33%). I project Brady to "air it out" tonight, as much as he can at least, and my model projects him for 271.14 passing yards and 1.84 touchdowns tonight.

Andy Dalton - QB, $13,500 (DK), $13,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 2,023 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
  • 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -1.2% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
  • 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -10.3% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.

On the other side of the field, we have Andy Dalton. It's a bit weird that Dalton is continuing to start for New Orleans, given that he hasn't brought them much success. Nevertheless, he's starting, and as I mentioned with Brady, the relatively close line leads me to believe that the Saints will be throwing the ball to keep pace with Brady and the Bucs.

While the funnel isn't as strong with New Orleans, my data model does give a slight lean to the passing game (+3.6%). We've seen the QBs of underdog teams have quite a bit of success lately in showdown slates (outside of Matt Ryan last night... yuck!), and we'll see if that trend continues with Dalton tonight.

Other Captains/MVPs: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara

 

Want more NFL DFS tools and content? Our NFL Premium package includes our DFS Cheat Sheets, Research Station, Lineup Optimizer, access to our Premium Slack Chatrooms where members can chat with our NFL analysts, and so much more. Check out this big win from RotoBaller's RealTalkRaph using our Premium tools - join in on the winning!

 

DFS Flex Plays

Chris Godwin - WR, $7,400 (DK), $12,500 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 86 targets, 60 receptions, 585 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Chris Harris Jr.): 20% targets per route, 78% catch rate, 0.35 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

I'll take a look at Chris Godwin as my number-one correlation with Tom Brady tonight. Godwin has been seeing a ton of targets lately, with 55 targets over his last five games, including 13 targets last week against the Browns. My model projects him for 8.5 tonight, catching 6.37 of them for 71.54 yards and a 45% chance of scoring a touchdown. As Brady ages, his arm isn't as strong, so I'll look for him to find the sweet spot with Godwin in the short and intermediate routes against the Saints' defense.

Chris Olave - WR, $6,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 92 targets, 56 receptions, 822 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Carlton Davis): 21% targets per route, 60% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

Similar to Godwin's correlation to Brady, I'll look to correlate Chris Olave in my Andy Dalton captain lineups. It's not an easy matchup for the rookie tonight against the Buccaneers' secondary (and in particular Carlton Davis), but the 0.32 fantasy points per route ran meshes well with Olave's big play ability. My model projects Olave to catch 4.26 of his 7.66 targets for 60.51 receiving yards and a 33% chance of finding the end zone.

Other Flex Options: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette

 

DFS Value Plays

Julio Jones - WR, $5,400 (DK), $7,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 25 targets, 14 receptions, 218 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Bradley Roby): 18% targets per route, 51% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

After an injury-riddled first half of the season, it looks like Julio Jones is slowly but surely coming around, just in time for the stretch run. Julio logged three of his four targets for 40 yards last Sunday against the Browns, and I anticipate him to have a similar output tonight.

My model projects Jones to haul in 2.66 of his 4.63 targets for 38.53 yards. He does have a 24% chance of finding the end zone as well, and actually has the best matchup of all pass-catchers tonight, as the Buccaneers have a projected 52.64% DVOA when targeting "other" wide-receivers (any wide receiver not listed as the "number-one" or "number-two" receiver).

Jarvis Landry - WR, $5,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 35 targets, 23 receptions, 258 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting): 17% targets per route, 81% catch rate, 0.38 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

I'll finish things up with Jarvis Landry, the fourth and final pass-catcher I have my eye on for this matchup. Landry has "fallen off" since his time in Miami and Cleveland, perhaps due to age and a general lack of ability in the Saints' passing game.

Nevertheless, Landry is cheap, projects to 3.82 receptions on 5.94 targets for 39.05 receiving yards and a 22% chance of scoring, and has the strongest matchup of all Saints pass-catchers tonight (projected -2.16% DVOA). He's worth a shot given his cheap price, but I would opt for the boom-or-bust ability of Rashid Shaheed in large-field contests.

Other Value Plays: Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST, Ryan Succop, Rashid Shaheed, Adam Trautman, Cade Otton

Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Weekly DFS Analysis

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Stephen Curry

"Not Even Close" to Retirement
Jonathan Kuminga

Linked to Bulls, Heat
Kevin Durant

Has "No Desire" to be Traded to Minnesota
Isaac Paredes

Returns as DH on Monday
New York Giants

Mike Kafka Expected to Reclaim Play-Calling Duties
Jon Runyan

Limited During Minicamp
Saquon Barkley

Feels Great Physically
Justin Simmons

Panthers Have Talked With Justin Simmons
Jordan Addison

Trial Date Set for July 15
New York Jets

Jets Sign Kingsley Jonathan, Marquis Hayes
Jarace Walker

Remains Sidelined for Game 5
Justin Verlander

Returning to the Rotation on Wednesday
Tony Finau

Finishes Tied For 38th at U.S. Open
Bud Cauley

Misses The Cut at U.S. Open
Cameron Young

Finishes Tied For Fourth at U.S. Open
J.J. Spaun

Wins U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 12th at U.S. Open
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at U.S. Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 42nd at U.S. Open
Vershon Lee

Vikings Ink Undrafted Offensive Lineman Vershon Lee
Luke Clanton

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
San Francisco 49ers

C.J. West Signs Rookie Deal with San Fran
Jaylen Warren

Training to Handle Larger Workload
Giancarlo Stanton

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Will Campbell

Ends Minicamp as Top Left Tackle
Sam Cosmi

Making Good Progress From Torn ACL
Kamaru Usman

Gets Back In The Win Column
Adonai Mitchell

Impresses at Minicamp
Joaquin Buckley

Winning Streak Comes To An End
Miranda Maverick

Drops Decision At UFC Atlanta
Bradley Chubb

Fully Healed, Looking Disruptive
Jonnu Smith

Contract Talks "Still Fluid"
Rose Namajunas

Wins Decision At UFC Atlanta
Andre Petroski

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Edmen Shahbazyan

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Raoni Barcelos

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Chase Elliott

Ends Mexico City with A Great Finish of Third
Christopher Bell

has A Strong Runner-Up Performance At Mexico City
Chase Briscoe

Wild Day Ends with A Top-10 Finish
Michael McDowell

Leaves Mexico City with A Top-Five Finish
Cody Garbrandt

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Brundage

Defeated After Accidental Clash Of Heads
Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on his Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road-Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup-Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
J.J. McCarthy

Looking "a Lot Stronger"
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Garrett Wilson

Receives New Contract Offer
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Travis Kelce

Slims Down During the Offseason
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Restart Contract Discussions
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse