X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Saints vs Buccaneers MNF Showdown

Tom Brady - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Saints vs. Buccaneers showdown slate on 12/05. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.

Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 13 has gone well. We have an interesting Monday night matchup tonight as the Saints (4-8) head into Tampa to take on the Buccaneers (5-6). What makes this such an interesting matchup is two-fold. For one, the Saints have seemed to have the Bucs' number (at least in the regular season) the last few years. Secondly, despite the Saints having the sixth-worst record in the NFL, they're just a game and a half behind the Bucs for first in the NFC South. Nevertheless, let's take a look at what we want to do in our DFS lineups on this slate.

We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it. 

I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saints vs. Buccaneers NFL DFS showdown slate on December 5th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MVP/Captain Plays

Tom Brady - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 3,051 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
  • 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 22.2% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
  • 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 2.3% (12th), per Football Outsiders.

I'll start things off with the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady. Brady has had some struggles against the Saints since joining the Buccaneers, as previously mentioned, but I'm not expecting that to be the case tonight. The 3.5 line indicates that this game may be closer than some would expect, and the Buccaneers have a pretty large lean toward the DVOA passing funnel (+36.33%). I project Brady to "air it out" tonight, as much as he can at least, and my model projects him for 271.14 passing yards and 1.84 touchdowns tonight.

Andy Dalton - QB, $13,500 (DK), $13,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 2,023 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
  • 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -1.2% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
  • 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -10.3% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.

On the other side of the field, we have Andy Dalton. It's a bit weird that Dalton is continuing to start for New Orleans, given that he hasn't brought them much success. Nevertheless, he's starting, and as I mentioned with Brady, the relatively close line leads me to believe that the Saints will be throwing the ball to keep pace with Brady and the Bucs.

While the funnel isn't as strong with New Orleans, my data model does give a slight lean to the passing game (+3.6%). We've seen the QBs of underdog teams have quite a bit of success lately in showdown slates (outside of Matt Ryan last night... yuck!), and we'll see if that trend continues with Dalton tonight.

Other Captains/MVPs: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara

 

Want more NFL DFS tools and content? Our NFL Premium package includes our DFS Cheat Sheets, Research Station, Lineup Optimizer, access to our Premium Slack Chatrooms where members can chat with our NFL analysts, and so much more. Check out this big win from RotoBaller's RealTalkRaph using our Premium tools - join in on the winning!

 

DFS Flex Plays

Chris Godwin - WR, $7,400 (DK), $12,500 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 86 targets, 60 receptions, 585 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Chris Harris Jr.): 20% targets per route, 78% catch rate, 0.35 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

I'll take a look at Chris Godwin as my number-one correlation with Tom Brady tonight. Godwin has been seeing a ton of targets lately, with 55 targets over his last five games, including 13 targets last week against the Browns. My model projects him for 8.5 tonight, catching 6.37 of them for 71.54 yards and a 45% chance of scoring a touchdown. As Brady ages, his arm isn't as strong, so I'll look for him to find the sweet spot with Godwin in the short and intermediate routes against the Saints' defense.

Chris Olave - WR, $6,400 (DK), $10,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 92 targets, 56 receptions, 822 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Carlton Davis): 21% targets per route, 60% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

Similar to Godwin's correlation to Brady, I'll look to correlate Chris Olave in my Andy Dalton captain lineups. It's not an easy matchup for the rookie tonight against the Buccaneers' secondary (and in particular Carlton Davis), but the 0.32 fantasy points per route ran meshes well with Olave's big play ability. My model projects Olave to catch 4.26 of his 7.66 targets for 60.51 receiving yards and a 33% chance of finding the end zone.

Other Flex Options: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette

 

DFS Value Plays

Julio Jones - WR, $5,400 (DK), $7,000 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 25 targets, 14 receptions, 218 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Bradley Roby): 18% targets per route, 51% catch rate, 0.26 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

After an injury-riddled first half of the season, it looks like Julio Jones is slowly but surely coming around, just in time for the stretch run. Julio logged three of his four targets for 40 yards last Sunday against the Browns, and I anticipate him to have a similar output tonight.

My model projects Jones to haul in 2.66 of his 4.63 targets for 38.53 yards. He does have a 24% chance of finding the end zone as well, and actually has the best matchup of all pass-catchers tonight, as the Buccaneers have a projected 52.64% DVOA when targeting "other" wide-receivers (any wide receiver not listed as the "number-one" or "number-two" receiver).

Jarvis Landry - WR, $5,200 (DK), $7,500 (FD)

Key Stats

  • 2022 Stats: 35 targets, 23 receptions, 258 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
  • Individual Matchup (vs. Sean Murphy-Bunting): 17% targets per route, 81% catch rate, 0.38 fantasy points per route, per PFF.

I'll finish things up with Jarvis Landry, the fourth and final pass-catcher I have my eye on for this matchup. Landry has "fallen off" since his time in Miami and Cleveland, perhaps due to age and a general lack of ability in the Saints' passing game.

Nevertheless, Landry is cheap, projects to 3.82 receptions on 5.94 targets for 39.05 receiving yards and a 22% chance of scoring, and has the strongest matchup of all Saints pass-catchers tonight (projected -2.16% DVOA). He's worth a shot given his cheap price, but I would opt for the boom-or-bust ability of Rashid Shaheed in large-field contests.

Other Value Plays: Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST, Ryan Succop, Rashid Shaheed, Adam Trautman, Cade Otton

Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Weekly DFS Analysis

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

A.J. Dillon

Not a Lock for a Roster Spot?
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Boston Celtics

Damian Lillard Drawing Interest from the Celtics
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Kyle Stowers

Punishes Former Team with Three-Homer Game
St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals Select Liam Doyle with Fifth Overall Pick
Daniel Gafford

Agrees to Contract Extension with Dallas
Colorado Rockies

Rockies Select Ethan Holliday Fourth Overall
Seattle Mariners

Kade Anderson Selected Third Overall by Seattle
Ha-Seong Kim

X-rays on Ha-Seong Kim's Foot Come Back Negative
Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Bremner Selected Second Overall by Angels in 2025 MLB Draft
Washington Nationals

Nationals Select Eli Willits First Overall
Jake Meyers

to Miss More Than Three Weeks With Calf Injury
Cooper Flagg

Shut Down for Rest of Summer League
LeBron James

Hasn't Requested a Trade
Quinshon Judkins

Following Quinshon Judkins Arrest, NFL Declines Comment
Travis Hunter

Earning Praise in Jaguars Camp for Work Ethic
Memphis Grizzlies

Cole Anthony, Grizzlies Agree to Contract Buyout
Edward Cabrera

Hopeful to Avoid Injured List
Oneil Cruz

Absent on Sunday
Lars Nootbaar

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Jake Burger

Scratched on Sunday
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Back in Action on Sunday
Sean Manaea

Reinstated From Injured List
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Julius Chestnut

Kalel Mullings Competing for RB3 Role
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
Carlos Correa

Returns to Twins Lineup
Connor Norby

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Kimani Vidal

Fighting for No. 3 Job
Cam Hart

Recovering From Shoulder Surgery
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
Quentin Johnston

Might Not Get Many Chances to Prove Himself
Tre Harris

Officially a Holdout
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Should Move Up on Sunday
Ross Chastain

is a Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Josh Berry

Should Be Avoided in Fantasy at Sonoma
Chris Buescher

is A Great DFS Option to Consider for Sonoma Lineups
Riley Herbst

a Deep Sleeper at Sonoma
Joey Logano

May be A Sneaky DFS Option Who Can Pay Off for Sonoma Lineups
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric Work for DFS Lineups at Sonoma?
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Worth Rostering For Sonoma DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek A Sneaky DFS Play for Sonoma?
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Probably More Valuable for DFS If He Doesn't Flip the Stage
Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club