RADIO
John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Rams vs Bengals showdown slate. His Super Bowl daily fantasy football advice.
It's Super Bowl Week, RotoBallers! I can't believe this is the last single game article of the season. It's been an absolute pleasure, and I'm ready to end this season off with a doozy. We have what should be a fantastic Super Bowl matchup, as the darling Cincinnati Bengals and the powerhouse Los Angeles Rams will take the field in LA to see who reigns supreme in the NFL for 2021-2022. I think there is a large range of outcomes in this game and everything is on the table here, so I'll be sure to have a ton of exposure across a bunch of players which I will note throughout this article. Let's get to it!
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues this week in the biggest game of the year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel for the Rams vs. Bengals NFL DFS showdown slate on February 13th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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FanDuel MVP Plays
Cooper Kupp (WR, $16,000)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 191 targets, 145 receptions, 1,947 receiving yards, 16 receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 32.38% target rate, 33.33% red-zone target rate, 13 end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Mike Hilton): 15% target per route, 73% catch rate, 0.27 fantasy points per route covered.
I'll start this Super Bowl slate off with this year's best fantasy wide receiver, Cooper Kupp. Kupp has been a key in the Rams' run all season, and I don't think the train will stop rolling until he's holding the Lombardi Trophy in his hands. He's caught four touchdown passes in three playoff games this season, and has seen double-digit targets in both the divisional and conference championship games. Again, I don't see this train stopping this week, and the solid matchup in the slot against Mike Hilton should help Cooper Kupp be the highest-scoring player on this slate.
Joe Burrow (QB, $15,000)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 5,453 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 16.4% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- Defensive Pass DVOA: -1% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.
This generation's "Joe Cool" continues to do the impossible. I think it's important to note that Burrow from a fantasy perspective hasn't put up the numbers of a "must-play" kind of quarterback, but I think this game will be a bit different. The Bengals used Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine to neutralize the Chiefs, taking advantage of their run defense which ranked 20th in rush DVOA. The Rams' defense finished fifth in rush DVOA this season, and I think the Bengals will be forced to put the ball in the air on Super Bowl Sunday. If the pocket can stay clean enough for Burrow, I expect him to do what he needs to do to keep the game close and potentially get the win.
Other Captains/MVPs: Matthew Stafford, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr.
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DFS Flex Plays
Matthew Stafford (QB, $15,500)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 5,791 passing yards, 47 touchdowns, 18 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.6% (seventh), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 11.6% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
An awesome storyline here as Matthew Stafford has gone from a 12-year starter in Detroit without a playoff win to quarterbacking the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl. I think Stafford will step up to the plate in this one, and rack up another impressive performance after throwing for 300+ yards and two touchdowns in consecutive weeks. The Bengals have struggled against the pass sans the second half against the Chiefs last week, and I think there's a higher likelihood that this game turns into a shootout than a "run-first" type of ballgame.
Tee Higgins (WR, $10,500)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 133 targets, 88 receptions, 1300 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 23.86% target rate, 22.45% red-zone target rate, 10 end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Darius Williams): 15% target rate, 64% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered.
The most intriguing matchup of this entire Super Bowl to me personally is going to be the showdown on the outside between Ja'Marr Chase and Jalen Ramsey. While I will have some exposure to Chase in this game, of course, I'll open the book on Tee Higgins as a cheaper solid pivot who could be primed to have a big game. He's averaging 9.5 targets and 99.5 receiving yards in the Bengals' last two games, and I think if Ramsey is consistently winning the line matchups against Chase, Higgins should be in for a 10+ target day. He's worth MVP upside in GPPs in case he finds the end zone once or twice, but I love him as a flex in all tournament formats.
Other Flex Options: Joe Burrow, Cam Akers, Odell Beckham Jr., Cooper Kupp
DFS Value Plays
Kendall Blanton (TE, $8,000)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 14 targets, 11 receptions, 112 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: No Data.
- Individual Matchup (vs Logan Wilson): 15% target rate, 84% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route covered.
Tyler Higbee is now officially out for the Super Bowl matchup. While this could be a detriment for the Rams, Kendall Blanton picked it up for the Los Angeles in the Conference Championships after Higbee went down, catching all five of his targets for 57 yards. He also caught both of his targets in the divisional round against the Buccaneers, one of which being a touchdown pass. I would have hoped that we could've got a discount on Blanton due to Higbee's status being up in the air when the slate dropped, but I'm okay paying the $8K for Blanton with Higbee sitting this one out.
Evan McPherson ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 45 field goals attempted, 40 field goals made, 50/52 PAT.
What more can I say about this kid that I didn't say last week? He's knocked down four field goals in each of the Bengals' three playoff games, including three 50+ yarders. While I think this game has the potential of a shootout, which would give McPherson a solid extra point floor, I thought the same thing last week and McPherson ended up knocking down four field goals. I think McPherson should knock down at least one or two again tonight, and who knows, maybe one will be the game-winner.
Other Value Plays: Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah (if playing, otherwise Drew Sample), Matt Gay, Sony Michel, Ben Skowronek
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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