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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Rams vs. 49ers TNF showdown slate Week 15 (Dec. 12, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a very fun Thursday Night Football matchup with huge playoff implications tonight, as Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (7-6) head to San Francisco to take on Brock Purdy and the 49ers (6-7). While neither of these teams have necessarily lived up to their preseason expectations, both are very much in the mix of things in the NFC West, with all four teams in the division within two games of each other. Let's see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Rams vs. 49ers Thursday night NFL DFS showdown slate on December 12. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Isaac Guerendo - RB, $12,600 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 57 rushing attempts, 324 rushing yards, eight targets, seven receptions, 69 receiving yards, four touchdowns
- Projected Rush DVOA: 0.63%
I'll start things off tonight with 49ers running back Isaac Guerendo. I suppose this is a "wait-and-see" kind of play, as Guerendo remains questionable as of the time I'm writing this after he left Sunday's game with a sprained foot.
Should Guerendo get ruled out for this one, Patrick Taylor Jr. becomes a must-play against this 22nd-ranked Rams rushing defense that's allowed 125.5 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks.
My model projects Guerendo to rush for 84.25 yards on 15.5 carries, adding 2.11 receptions on 3.66 targets for 22.69 yards and 0.69 total touchdowns.
Puka Nacua - WR, $16,500 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 75 targets, 54 receptions, 708 receiving yards, four touchdowns
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -23.2%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Puka Nacua, who is coming off a massive game against the Bills on Sunday. In the Rams' upset win, Nacua caught 12 of 14 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown.
While the 49ers have successfully stymied the top receivers of their opponents, they'll have to face two of them tonight. San Francisco was fortunate the first time these two teams matched up in Week 3, as both Nacua and running mate Cooper Kupp were sidelined for that one.
Puka Nacua is not your average WR 🌟 https://t.co/qmagNKMs6C pic.twitter.com/kqzHExjREm
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 9, 2024
My model projects Nacua to catch 7.01 of his 10.52 targets for 80.29 yards and 0.45 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Deebo Samuel Sr., Kyren Williams, George Kittle
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
George Kittle - TE, $8,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 67 targets, 56 receptions, 800 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -5.5%
I'll take a look at George Kittle next. While the 49ers have been injury-riddled and haven't lived up to preseason expectations, I must say it's been nice to see Kittle's resurgence as a top tight end in the league.
With his standout performance against the Bears, George Kittle has climbed to #2 in the NFL in EPA per target. The #49ers have two players in the top 6 (Jauan Jennings). pic.twitter.com/nBGuu1oZA2
— SFdata9ers🏈📊 (@sfdata9ers) December 9, 2024
Similar to the aforementioned Nacua, Kittle did not suit up against the Rams in Week 3. However, Kittle has been excellent against the Rams in his career. Ironically enough, his numbers against the Rams look eerily similar to his season numbers to this point: 57 catches for 799 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 12 games.
Tonight, Kittle projects to catch 5.75 of his 7.66 targets for 68.24 yards and 0.48 touchdowns.
Kyren Williams - RB, $10,200 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 251 rushing attempts, 1,013 rushing yards, 34 targets, 28 receptions, 155 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns
- Projected Rush DVOA: -0.57%
I'll look at Kyren Williams next. When most people think of the Rams offense, people will think of Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and the two excellent receivers. However, Williams is having an excellent year.
The Rams offense boasts the top power-rush success rate in the league at 78%, per FTN Fantasy. My model projects this number to get bumped up to 82% tonight against a 49ers defense that ranks 23rd in the same category (70%).
My model projects Williams to rush for 82.09 yards on 16.8 carries while adding 1.81 receptions on 2.75 targets for 11.71 yards and 0.96 total touchdowns. It's a home run spot for Williams, who will look to build on his three-touchdown performance against the Niners in Week 3.
Other Flex Options: Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings, Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Ricky Pearsall - WR, $4,800 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 20 targets, 12 receptions, 137 receiving yards, one touchdown
- Opponent DVOA vs. Other WR: 32.7%
I'll look at a pair of low-priced 49ers in the value spots for tonight's showdown, starting with Ricky Pearsall. After Pearsall's unfortunate situation before the season, the rookie out of Florida made his season debut in Week 7, coming on strong in his first three games where he caught 11 of his 15 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown. He's seemingly fallen out of favor since then, seeing just five targets since San Francisco's Week 11 matchup with the Seahawks.
My model projects Pearsall to catch 2.9 of his 4.21 targets tonight for 39.8 yards and 0.21 touchdowns. This game is projected to be a shootout, and given the uncertainty of the 49ers rushing attack, they'll need all hands on deck in the passing game, including Pearsall.
Kyle Juszczyk - RB, $2,000 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Four rushing attempts, 20 rushing yards, 23 targets, 15 receptions, 122 receiving yards, one touchdown
- Projected Rush DVOA: 0.63%
I'll wrap things up with Kyle Juszczyk. Juszczyk is one of the more interesting players in the league but could see a bit of an increased role tonight, especially if Guerendo is ruled out.
While I'm not implying by any means that Juszczyk will be the leader in the 49ers backfield, or get any carries at all for that matter, he may find his way into the short passing game as the Rams defense ranks 28th in DVOA against running backs as receivers (23.4%).
While my model does not project Juszczyk to get any touches out of the backfield, it does project him to catch 1.38 of 2.15 targets for 7.64 yards and 0.11 touchdowns. We don't need much from him given his price point on both sites, and he's my sneaky pick to score a touchdown in this one.
Other Value Options: Demarcus Robinson, Jake Moody
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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