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It's that time of the year again, RotoBallers! We're back at it with some Week 4 Thursday Night Football DFS picks. We have a fun inter-divisional matchup on this Thursday night showdown. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and the Detroit Lions (2-1) head to Lambeau Field to take on Jordan Love, Aaron Jones, and the Green Bay Packers (2-1). The Packers should be getting their number-one wide receiver Christian Watson back, let's see how that affects our DFS lineups. Let's get right to it.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Lions vs. Packers NFL DFS showdown slate on September 28. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jordan Love - QB, $14,700 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 655 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns, one interception, 74 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 48.64%
I'll start things off with Jordan Love. A lot of folks in Green Bay and the NFL in general had no idea that Jordan Love would come this strong so early in the season. That's exactly what he's done, though, and he's looked remarkably impressive through three weeks. He takes on a Detroit defense that ranks 19th in defensive DVOA against the pass (5.56%), and as mentioned earlier, is getting his number-one receiver back. I think Love finishes this game as the top scorer on this slate, and my model agrees.
Even with the odds stacked against him, Love found a way 💚 pic.twitter.com/7i6p08RXkY
— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2023
Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, $14,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 31 carries, 139 rushing yards, 13 targets, 10 receptions, 59 receiving yards.
- Projected Defensive Pass DVOA: -6.52%
Man, DraftKings is really tight with their pricing this week. I mean, seriously, I was hoping to get a nice discount on Gibbs here considering he hasn't done a whole lot to this point in the season. Now with David Montgomery back, we can't necessarily rely on Gibbs in the run game, but that's not my thought process here anyway. Gibbs saw just two targets in Week 1, and two targets last week. However, sandwiched between there is a nine-target outing in Week 2. I'm expecting more of that tonight, against a Packers defense that ranks 27th in passing DVOA against RBs (35.04%).
Other Captains/MVPs: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Aaron Jones, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave
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DFS Flex Plays
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, $11,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 27 targets, 21 receptions, 275 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. WR1: 46.23%, per FTN.
I'll take a look at Amon-Ra St. Brown next. St. Brown has picked up right where he left off in 2022, dominating opposing secondaries week in and week out. He gets a very strong matchup tonight against the Packers. He projects to catch a whopping 8.31 of his 8.61 targets for 83.9 yards and 0.54 touchdowns. He comes into this game with 21 catches for 231 yards and a touchdown in four career games against the Pack. I'm expecting a massive game from him tonight.
Romeo Doubs - WR, $8,800 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20 targets, 11 receptions, 129 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. WR2: 46.09%, per FTN.
As I mentioned multiple times so far, the Packers look to get Christian Watson back in this one. I still like Romeo Doubs in this spot, though, especially considering his plus matchup against the Packers defense. Doubs projects to just 3.35 receptions on 5.47 targets for 39.26 yards and 0.36 touchdowns, which I think is a bit of an under-projection, as I don't think Watson makes such a huge impact right away.
Other Flex Options: Aaron Jones, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Christian Watson
DFS Value Plays
Jayden Reed, $5,600 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 20 targets, nine receptions, 148 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs. 'Other' WR: -22.91%, per FTN.
I'm all over this Green Bay passing offense tonight if it isn't evident enough already. The reason is, their path to victory comes through the passing game. They come into this one ranked second in pass DVOA, while the Lions rank 19th in defensive DVOA against the pass. Conversely, the Pack ranks 31st in rushing DVOA, while the Lions rank fifth in defensive DVOA against the run. Long-winded to say, give me all of the Packers' pass catchers tonight, including Jayden Reed, who projects to 3.24 receptions on 4.96 targets for 41.7 yards and 0.22 touchdowns.
Anders Carlson - K, $4,600 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 3/3 FGM/FGA, 9/9 XPM/XPA.
I'll wrap things up with Anders Carlson. Carlson, like his brother, looks like he's one excellent kicker through the first three games of his career. He's been literally perfect on his first 12 kicks, including a 52-yard bomb in Week 1 against the Bears. I think this correlates well with my thought process of the Packers' path to victory coming through the passing game. The field gets squeezed once you're in the second half of the field, and if the Lions come up with defensive stops on their side of the 50, Carlson could have a huge night.
Other Value Plays: Luke Musgrave, David Montgomery, Riley Patterson
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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