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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 7 Jaguars vs Saints showdown slate on 10/19. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it with some Week 7 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. We have what I believe will be an ugly one, as Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) will head up to The Big Easy to take on Alvin Kamara and the Saints (3-3). This game features one of the lower point totals we’ll see this year as this one sits at just 39.5, and we’ll see how that affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jaguars vs. Saints NFL DFS showdown slate on October 19. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Alvin Kamara - RB, $15,600 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 52 carries, 199 rushing yards, 25 targets, 23 receptions, 86 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: -25.73%
I’ll start things off with Alvin Kamara. Now, the Jaguars have the sixth-ranked defense against the run in terms of DVOA (-22.28%). My model projects him to run for just 41.27 yards on 12.88 carries, along with 3.73 receptions on 4.55 targets for 26.88 yards and a 42% chance of finding the end zone. While I don’t see him getting a ton of yards, I think the Jaguars do a good job of getting pressure on Derek Carr, so I can see Kamara getting a ton of targets.
Michael Thomas - WR, $10,500 (DK), $19,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 47 targets, 31 receptions, 329 receiving yards.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR2: 11.78%
I’ll take a look at Michael Thomas next, for similar reasons I’m looking at Kamara. Thomas projects to just 6.97 targets but is projected to haul in 5.06 of those targets for 59.1 receiving yards and a 37% chance of finding the end zone. I’m not looking for aDot here; but I think Thomas, like Kamara, could see a ton of targets. We could see vintage MT tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, Trevor Lawrence
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DFS Flex Plays
Trevor Lawrence - QB, $9,600 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,439 passing yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions, 33 carries, 147 rushing yards, three fumbles lost
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: -3.58%
I’ll take a look at the other side of the field with Trevor Lawrence. This game screams under to me, despite the game being played in a dome. Lawrence projects to 221.39 yards, 1.40 touchdowns, and 1.02 interceptions on just a 54.65% completion percentage. His upside comes against the run game, as the Saints rank 26th in rushing attempts allowed and 16th in QB rushing touchdowns allowed over the last four weeks.
Christian Kirk - WR, $8,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 49 targets, 33 receptions, 384 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: -4.91%
I’ll probably have a 50/50 split between Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley tonight. The Saints are an extremely tough defense, but Kirk seems to have the better matchup, at least in terms of DVOA. He projects to 4.35 receptions on 6.52 targets for 55.44 yards and 0.34 touchdowns. He’ll do his best work out of the slot, and so will Ridley, as the Saints rank in the bottom 10 of targets, receptions, and yards against slot receivers.
Other Flex Options: Calvin Ridley, Derek Carr, Travis Etienne
DFS Value Plays
New Orleans Saints - D/ST, $5,400 (DK), $9,900 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16 points per game allowed, 13 sacks, eight interceptions, two fumble recoveries, two defensive touchdowns.
I’ll take a look at the Saints' defense here, as they come in as one of the best units in football. I suppose it’s relatively boom-or-bust, but I can’t imagine the Saints giving up too many points in this one. As I mentioned, this game has a strong lean towards the under, and both teams do a good job of getting pressure. I’ll back the Saints to force Trevor Lawrence to turn the ball over and hold the scoring to a minimum tonight.
Brandon McManus - K, $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14 field goal attempts, 12 field goals made, 100% extra point percentage (14/14).
I’ll wrap things up with Brandon McManus. I’m a bit torn here, as I think the Jaguars are the better team, but my model is leaning toward the Saints. I think the Jags will be able to dink and dunk their way down the field just with sheer talent, but I think the Saints buckle down on their side of the field, providing some upside for McManus tonight.
Other Value Plays: Rashid Shaheed, Jaguars D/ST, Blake Grupe
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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