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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back to the "not-so-fun" matchups here on SNF, as we have a mismatch of sorts here tonight. It'll be the Tyrod Taylor-led New York Giants (1-4) heading upstate to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (3-2). The Bills are coming off of a tough loss over in London, and the Giants are looking to get something right. It'll be a tough ask, especially without their starting quarterback. Not to mention, we may have some impending weather here. We'll see how that affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful over the past few seasons with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Giants vs. Bills Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on October 15. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
James Cook - RB, $13,800 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 61 carries, 292 rushing yards, 18 targets, 14 receptions, 140 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 7.95%
I'll be starting things off with James Cook tonight. Cook has a solid matchup against the Giants, who rank 30th or 31st in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns allowed this season. My model projects Cook to run for 89.53 yards, as well as catch 1.72 of his 3.48 targets for 14.13 yards. He has an 84% chance of scoring tonight. Now, I know the Bills are really a pass-first offense, but with the impending weather and the potential game script, I think Cook could be in for a big night.
Stefon Diggs - WR, $18,300 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 50 targets, 39 receptions, 520 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
I'll take a look at Stefon Diggs next. While the weather may impact the passing game, the Bills are so pass-heavy that if they see the opportunity to throw the ball, they will. This has been to Stefon Diggs in particular, who comes into this one averaging 10 targets per game. Diggs projects to 10.16 targets tonight, catching 8.99 of them for 114.27 yards and a whopping 90% chance to score a touchdown.
Other Captains/MVPs: Josh Allen, Bills D/ST, Dalton Kincaid
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DFS Flex Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $12,800 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,407 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 20 carries, 120 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and one fumble lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 66.97%
I will take a look at Josh Allen here, despite the potential weather. Allen is always a threat to run the ball, and I don't see this game being any different. My model projects him to run the ball just 3.97 times, albeit for 27.7 yards and a 29% chance of finding the end zone. He also is projected to tack on 276.82 yards, 2.1 touchdowns, and 0.44 interceptions. With the game script leaning towards the run game, I hesitate to recommend him in the 1.5x spot, but I will still have some exposure there. I think you have to.
Gabriel Davis - WR $7,800 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16 targets, 18 receptions, 320 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
I know, I know. Potential weather. I've said it a bunch of times and still am recommending the Bills' passing game. The problem is the Giants offense hasn't shown much at all and will be starting a backup quarterback. This is a tough slate, and I don't love feeling like I'm banking on a touchdown. Davis projects well enough, catching 3.18 of 5.18 targets for 51.79 yards and a 47% chance of scoring that touchdown we're looking for.
Other Flex Options: Saquon Barkley, Tyrod Taylor
DFS Value Plays
Buffalo Bills - D/ST, $6,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16 points per game allowed, 21 sacks, eight interceptions, five fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
This is a 100% exposure must-play in your lineups. Unfortunately, they're adequately priced. Regardless, they should be in for a big night. No one on the Giants' offense is worth even being "scared" of, with the exception of Saquon Barkley. However, with Barkley just returning from injury paired with the poor field conditions, it's tough to think that he'll be in there for long if this game gets out of hand. I don't see the Giants doing much of anything here.
Darius Slayton - WR, $5,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 24 targets, 13 receptions, 167 receiving yards.
I'll wrap things up with the only Giant I'll be writing up here, Darius Slayton. I recommend Slayton here due to the positive matchup, as the Bills come into this one with a 41.14% DVOA against "WR1s". Now, you can ask the question "Who is the Giants' number-one receiver?" I couldn't tell you that it's Slayton for sure, but I'm just basing it off of my model here. Slayton projects to 3.00 receptions on 4.36 targets for 28.23 yards and a 17% chance of finding the end zone. It isn't much, but you have to play at least one player from each team in your lineup.
Other Value Options: Latavius Murray, Wan'Dale Robinson
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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