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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Eagles vs Texans showdown slate on 11/3. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 9 Thursday Night Football DFS lineups. We had a relatively ugly Thursday night game last week, as the Ravens took care of business against Tom Brady and the Bucs. While that was a relatively close game that came down to the wire, I can't expect tonight to look the same. The sole undefeated team remaining in the NFL, the Eagles (7-0), head into Houston to take on the Texans (1-5-1). This is the largest spread of any road team this season, as the Birds come into this one as 14-point favorites.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Eagles vs. Texans NFL DFS showdown slate on November 3rd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $17,700 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,799 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions, 303 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 30.8% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 7.8% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with who else but Jalen Hurts. If the spread wasn't any indication, this game has the makings of a blowout. Here's an interesting tidbit worth noting – Jalen Hurts is from Houston. It'll be the first time in his professional career that he gets to play in his hometown, and I have to believe he'll make the most of it. While I can't imagine he's going to throw the ball a ton in this game, he'll be able to do more than enough with his legs to get the job done in this one. It's a shame he's -120 on his anytime TD scorer prop, as that would be a great bet.
Dallas Goedert - TE, $9,900 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 41 targets, 32 receptions, 421 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Christian Kirksey): 13% targets per route, 66% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
After Sunday's "A.J. Brown show" I'll look for Dallas Goedert to lead the way for the Eagles pass-catchers this evening. I'll make it clear: this is not a slight on A.J. Brown by any means. The Texans play a lot of zone defense, so I expect the Eagles to pick them apart underneath with the likes of Goedert and DeVonta Smith along with the run game.
Other Captains/MVPs: Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, Dameon Pierce
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DFS Flex Plays
Davis Mills - QB, $9,000 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 1,502 passing yards, eight touchdowns, six interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -13.7% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -30.5% (2nd), per Football Outsiders
I wouldn't say I necessarily "love" Mills tonight, but I do think he could potentially be an optimal play here. It seems unlikely Mills will have his two top receivers, as Nico Collins has been ruled out and Brandin Cooks is questionable. It didn't seem that Cooks was too happy with the outcome of the trade deadline, and I really can't see him playing in this one. It's also worth noting that Mills is actually (somehow?) better under pressure than he is in a clean pocket, and he should see a bunch of pressure tonight. While it seems like I'm thinking of reasons not to play Mills, simply put, the Texans at some point will need to throw the ball.
Dameon Pierce - RB, $8,600 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 121 attempts, 539 rushing yards, 24 targets, 20 receptions, 96 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -15.2% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: 0.5% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
Well, if there's one thing that the Texans actually do well, it is running the football. Pierce looks to be nothing short of a stud, and I expect him to bunch of work early on in this matchup. The Eagles lost Jordan Davis to a high-ankle sprain on Sunday, meaning Philly will now have to adjust their defensive scheme on a short week. They've been pretty bad, relatively speaking, against the run this season. While the game script doesn't love the Texans rushing attack in this one, Pierce is almost unfadeable at this point.
Other Flex Options: Miles Sanders, AJ Brown, Eagles D/ST, DeVonta Smith
DFS Value Plays
Phillip Dorsett II - WR, $4,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 12 targets, four receptions, 66 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs Avonte Maddox): 12% targets per route, 83% catch rate, 0.2 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
This is an interesting play here. As I mentioned previously, Nico Collins has been ruled out and personally, I doubt that Brandin Cooks plays in this game. With that said, that would make Dorsett Houston's number-one receiver tonight. While that would leave him open to lining up against the Eagles' top-two corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry, Dorsett does most of his work out of the slot. Avonte Maddox has been no slouch in the Eagles' secondary, but I think Dorsett will have a relatively solid floor at his price tag.
Boston Scott - RB, $1,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 23 attempts, 66 rushing yards, one target, one reception, two receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 11.% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Rush DVOA: 19% (32nd), per Football Outsiders.
A bit of a sneaky punt/dart throw here. I've said it multiple times already, this game has all the makings of a blowout. Considering it's a short week, I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if Boston Scott takes the lead out of the Eagles backfield for the majority of the fourth quarter should the game get out of hand. Scott had seven carries for 21 yards in the Eagles win on Sunday against Pittsburgh, and I think he'll see some volume late in tonight's showdown as well.
Other Value Plays: Brevin Jordan, Jake Elliott, Kenneth Gainwell
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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