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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Cowboys vs Titans showdown slate on 12/29. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 17 Thursday Night Football DFS picks. We have a maybe not-so-fun matchup this week as the Cowboys (11-4) coming off a win against Philadelphia head to Music City to take on the struggling Titans (7-8). As of now, the Titans look like they'll be without their star running back, Derrick Henry, who is doubtful with a hip injury. Let's see how this affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the end of the season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jaguars vs. Jets NFL DFS showdown slate on December 22nd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Dak Prescott - QB, $15,900 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,540 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 14.6% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 15.2% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott is coming off a great game against the Eagles last Saturday and now gets a much easier matchup against the Titans who rank in the bottom five in passing DVOA on defense. I have him absolutely lighting up the Titans' defense tonight, tossing for 303.8 yards, 2.15 touchdowns, and just 0.64 interceptions, with a projected pass DVOA of 25.54% for Dallas.
Malik Willis - QB, $12,900 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 276 passing yards, three interceptions, 27 rushing attempts, 123 rushing yards, and one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 6.7% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -12.7% (second), per Football Outsiders
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Malik Willis. Not as much for the passing game here, but for his effect on the run game. My model projects him to pass for just 156.84 yards, with a projected 0.8 touchdowns and 1.08 interceptions. His rushing projections aren't much better, for just 33.68 rushing yards on 7.06 attempts, but with Dallas's projected 43% pressure rate I have a feeling that Willis will be flooding the pocket and picking up more yardage on the ground, especially without Derrick Henry in the lineup.
Other Captains/MVPs: CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz
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DFS Flex Plays
CeeDee Lamb - WR, $11,400 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 135 targets, 91 receptions, 1,207 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Joshua Kalu): 8% targets per route, 82% catch rate, 0.13 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll look to stack Prescott with a pair of Dallas pass-catchers here, the first of which would be CeeDee Lamb. Lamb went off against the Eagles on Saturday night ten of his 11 targets for 170 yards and two touchdowns. While on the surface the matchup doesn't look great against Joshua Kalu and the Titans' defense, I think Dallas completely airs it out tonight and Lamb actually goes over his projections. My model projects Lamb for 8.89 targets, 6.33 receptions, 85.83 receiving yards, and a 63% chance of scoring.
Dalton Schultz - TE, $6,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 70 targets, 46 receptions, 488 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup: N/A (Zach Cunningham is OUT).
The second pass-catcher I'll take a look at for Dallas will be Dalton Schultz. Schultz has been pretty underwhelming at the tight end position this season for both season-long managers and DFS players alike. I project him to bounce back tonight, though, catching 4.84 of his 6.67 targets for 53.53 receiving yards and a 38% chance of scoring. The matchup against the Titans is a good one, as Dallas has a projected 11.93% DVOA when targeting tight ends.
Other Flex Options: Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott
DFS Value Plays
Dallas Cowboys - D/ST, $5,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 19.4 points per game allowed, 49 sacks, 14 interceptions, 16 fumble recoveries, and three defensive touchdowns.
- Projected DVOA: -15.84%
I'll take a look at Dallas's defense despite the higher price here for obvious reasons. Sure, they look like they've taken a step back over the past few weeks, but ultimately Tennessee doesn't really have anything or anyone to do anything on offense tonight. They scored just 14 points last Saturday against Houston with Derrick Henry in the lineup, so I can't imagine what sort of offense they'll be able to muster up without him.
Hassan Haskins - RB, $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 11 attempts, 50 rushing yards, sevens targets, seven receptions, 31 receiving yards.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -4.3% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -14.9% (fifth), per Football Outsiders
Last but not least I'll take a look at Hassan Haskins. While I don't really love anyone on the Titans tonight, with the Henry news coming relatively late in the week we get some solid value with Haskins on both sites. If there is one "hole" in Dallas's defense it is certainly their rushing defense, especially now with Jonathan Hankins and Leighton Vander Esch out of the lineup for the foreseeable future. I'll take the chance on Haskins here, but if does end up being over-owned, I'll probably end up under the public in exposure.
Other Value Plays: Brett Maher, Austin Hooper, Randy Bullock
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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