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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Cowboys vs. Chargers showdown slate on 10/16/2023. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article! This matchup has the makings of a potential shootout, as the Dallas Cowboys (3-2) will head into the City of Angels to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2). Most will see these two teams and think shootout. Rightfully so, but I think this game stays under. Let's see how that affects our DFS lineups.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Cowboys vs. Chargers NFL DFS showdown slate on October 16. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Keenan Allen - WR, $15,900 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 44 carries, 35 receptions, 434 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
I'll start tonight off with a pair of wide receivers in the 1.5x spots. There's going to be a lot of pressure generated on the Chargers' offensive line and Justin Herbert tonight, so I think that Herbert works the short game and we see a ton of Keenan Allen targets. My model projects 10.37 targets for Allen, with him catching 7.66 of them for 89.67 yards and 0.52 touchdowns. Allen is a target machine, with the exception of Week 4 where he saw just five. Coming off of the bye, I think he has a big game tonight.
CeeDee Lamb - WR, $14,700 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 35 targets, 27 receptions, 358 receiving yards, one touchdown.
I'll take a look at "WR1" on the other side of the field here with CeeDee Lamb. Lamb has seen just seven targets per game this year, which I think is a bit interesting as I see him as the bonafide alpha in the Cowboys' offense. My model projects Lamb to see 8.45 targets tonight, catching 6.67 of them for 103.29 yards and 0.58 touchdowns. Lamb has an awesome matchup and I think he will and Tony Pollard will be the reason the Cowboys move the ball down the field. More on that later...
Other Captains/MVPs: Tony Pollard, Cowboys D/ST, Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert
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DFS Flex Plays
Justin Herbert - QB, $10,800 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,105 passing yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, 20 carries, 56 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Passing DVOA: 5.6%
I'll take a look at Justin Herbert here. Not an ideal matchup for Herbert and the Chargers offense as this vaunted Dallas defense comes into town. Now, that defense got somewhat exposed last week against the 49ers, as Brock Purdy was able to pick them apart using all the weapons at his disposal -- in particular George Kittle, who logged three scores. My model projects Herbert to throw for 252.14 yards and 1.78 touchdowns while adding 17.44 rushing yards tonight. Surely former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore had this game circled on the schedule, so I'm excited to see what he has drawn up for this offense.
Tony Pollard - RB, $9,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 81 carries, 340 rushing yards, 22 targets, 19 receptions, 96 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Projected Rushing DVOA: -3.36%
Tony Pollard is up next, and as mentioned when talking about CeeDee Lamb, I think he and Lamb are the reason the Cowboys are able to move down the field tonight. Pollard is projected to touch the ball 20.04 times tonight (15.5 carries, 4.54 receptions), totaling 112.24 yards and 0.66 touchdowns. I think the Chargers are able to get pressure on Dak Prescott in this one, so I can see the Cowboys very well dumping off the ball to Pollard and letting him work in the open field.
Other Flex Options: Austin Ekeler, Dak Prescott
DFS Value Plays
Gerald Everett - TE, $4,600 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14 targets, 13 receptions, 107 receiving yards.
In terms of value, I'll take a look at Gerald Everett. Everett has been relatively quiet to this point in the season, but I mentioned earlier how San Francisco TE George Kittle found the end zone three times last week. Everett's projections surely aren't anything in that realm, as he projects to 2.05 receptions on 3.28 targets for 27.63 yards and 0.26 touchdowns. Of course, I'm not expecting a repeat performance, but I think Everett has a solid matchup here.
Dallas Cowboys - D/ST, $3,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 16.6 points per game allowed, 15 sacks, seven interceptions, four fumble recoveries, four defensive touchdowns.
I'll wrap things up with what I feel is a "sharp" play in the value slot with the Cowboys' defense, at least on DraftKings. I mentioned earlier that this defense got flooded last week against San Francisco, but they're in a prime spot for a bounceback. I also mentioned earlier that Dallas should be able to generate pressure against Justin Herbert. They also do a good job of stopping running backs in the passing game. While it'll be difficult to stop Austin Ekeler in that aspect, if they can keep him relatively quiet, they should have no issue hitting value.
Other Value Plays: Jake Ferguson, Brandon Aubrey, Cameron Dicker
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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